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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… A pulse.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday night’s retest of 2884.50 resistance had held once again, this time with help from China tariff headlines that triggered a slide to 2867.25 through Tuesday’s open. That test of both bias-down parameters held, and offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters were fulfilled as the bias window ended and as the noon hour began. Things went sideways from there, ranging around the morning’s 2890.75 bias-up target and the afternoon’s 2891.25 bias-up signal, down to 2887.50. No new unfinished business was left outstanding, and no traction was gained.
Overnight action’s new info…
Volatility wasn’t much different overnight than it was Tuesday afternoon, but it was more productive. Initially flat-to-lower, a dip to 2886.25 was recovered back up to and through Tuesday’s highs to 2895.25. Coming within 3 ticks of “unfinished business” at 2895.50 has neutralized it, and price has since dipped back down to 2890.75.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Without gaining traction Tuesday afternoon, immediately resuming the morning’s rally Wednesday would require gapping up above 2893.00. Currently, only probing temporarily above Tuesday’s high isn’t indicating a gap up… or a gap down. And having probed overnight above yesterday’s intraday high, exiting the open under the 2888.00 earlier overnight lows would reverse trending down for at least this morning — if not also through tomorrow morning. Overnight highs neutralized the 2895.50 objective, so maintaining its recovery should point higher. Reversing down could test “lower prior highs” at 2882.00-2883.00 simply as noise.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2895.50 would be likely to trigger the 2894.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2890.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2893.50 | 2894.00 |
| …would target | 2898.75 | 2899.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2884.00 | 2884.50 |
| …would target | 2878.50 | 2879.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
After initially bouncing overnight up to 2884.50 resistance, China tariff headlines triggered a slide to 2867.25 through Tuesday’s open. 
The artificial catalyst was quickly reversed, recovering tests of both bias-down parameters. Offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters were soon fulfilled — the 2884.50 bias-up signal was met coming out of the bias window, and a surge into the noon hour met the 2890.75 bias-up target.
The morning’s bias-up target and the afternoon’s 2891.25 bias-up signal, being resistance, held the upper-end of a consolidation down to 2887.50 through the close. No unfinished business was left outstanding.
No traction was gained, so immediately resuming Tuesday’s rally Wednesday would require gapping up. That’s also required for immediately extending Tuesday’s outside day. Next higher upside objectives begin at 2895.50. Whether overnight or post-open, pullbacks have room to “lower prior highs” at 2882.00-2883.00. Back under 2879.75 through any relevant window could extend the 2-week old pullback to fresh lows.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Another narrowly ranging inside day Tuesday has now formed a Descending Triangle, if not a Symmetrical Triangle. Breaking under 1.1560 would start to signal the 1.1395 target is back in-play.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s slightly lower low under 1293.00 was recovered back into positive territory, but still too shallow to consider the ongoing decline is yet reversing direction up.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s open slid to fresh lows under 14.00, with the nearest buy signal now being a close back above 14.33.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s inside day didn’t improve overnight, and Tuesday morning only resumed the decline to attack 142-00, now more than 1-1/2 points under last Tuesday’s sell signal. The decline remains intact so long as bounces now hold 142-10. Back above 142-20 would start to signal momentum reversing up.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Rallying Tuesday morning soon retested the 68.40 buy signal that had held as resistance Monday morning. Its retest was likely to extend higher without delay. The fresh recovery highs attacked 67.50, and a second consecutive higher close on Wednesdays would confirm the 71.30-71.40 objective is in-play.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow ranging Tuesday morning didn’t extend Monday’s rally above 2.82, which closing above Tuesday would signal that a bottom is forming.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Sep 12, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s pre-open PPI is both high-profile, and reliable for influencing price action. The noon hour’s 10-year auction could also inhibit price action before the results, as could the afternoon’s Beige Book.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET