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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Breaking lower from the Symmetrical Triangle that was forming through Tuesday could extend 1.618 and fulfill the outstanding 1.1495 downside objective. But Wednesday tried breaking higher, or at least firmed to test 1.1650, and any higher would invalidate the downside potential.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
More narrow ranging overnight firmed later Wednesday morning and probed the 1209.50 buy signal. A second consecutive higher close would confirm a new rally leg underway. Otherwise, back under 1201.50 would resume the decline targeting 1172.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-lower ranging into Wednesday’s open was recovered to attack the 14.33 buy signal. It didn’t trigger, but breaking higher Thursday morning would be credible for extending higher intraday, and potentially launching a new rally leg.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up slightly Wednesday only ranged narrowly sideways, without rejecting the ongoing decline of lower lows and lower highs.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already greeting Tuesday’s API from a position of strength enabled a post-close surge that extended higher Wednesday morning in reaction to EIA. The week-old gap up to 71.20 was filled to neutralize its attraction. The 71.40 overnight high preceding it was only attacked and is still likely to be retested.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s second consecutive higher close following Monday morning’s fresh pullback low now suggests a bottom is forming. Surging Wednesday morning to the 2.87 buy signal reacted down, but retesting it Thursday morning would be likely to extend higher since the EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Crowding out durability.
Artificial surge steals spotlight from organic recovery.
The open’s potentially bearish setup, which failed its attempt to fully form, didn’t prevent dipping temporarily. The bearish setup would have trended down all morning, but the 2884.50 bias-down signal was able to fulfill its 2879.00 bias-down target (to within 2-3 ticks) and then recover.
In fact, the 2884.50 bias-down signal was recovered as the bias environment was coming within view of lapsing. Actually, 2-3 minutes early, but that’s not a deal killer. Its recovery surged to touch the 2895.25 overnight high.
But the artificial catalyst made the surge likely to be retraced to its origin. Which it was, by noon, back down to 2882.75. Now the afternoon’s 2888.75 bias-up signal has avoided triggering, and also avoided holding. This is a noN-bias environment — the bias-up target is not in-play, and neither bias signal is required to hold if tested.
Back above 2888.00 would start to signal another rally effort underway. In the absence of headlines, the organic effort should produce fresh highs. Meanwhile, back under 2885.00 (being tested now) would start to signal a deeper dip uderway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 13, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s pre-open CPI is both high-profile, and reliable for influencing price action. The noon hour’s Fed speaker may also influence price action, although the 30-year auction can be more influential to at least inhibit volatility until its results.
*Bank of England policy statement
7:00 AM ET
*CPI
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
12:30 PM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2888.00 | 2888.75 |
| …would target | 2894.75 | 2895.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2878.25 | 2879.00 |
| …would target | 2871.75 | 2872.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Excessively restrained optimism?
Bearish setup avoided, but bearish behavior ensues.
Overnight probed above yesterday’s 2893.00 high. So, exiting the open at 9:45 under the earlier 2888.00 overnight low would have formed a 
bearish setup. Price would have been expected to trend down through this morning, if not also through tomorrow morning.
2888.00 wasn’t broken through 9:45. Not for lack of trying. So, sellers tried to form the setup, and failed. The consequence should be as bullish as it would have been bearish.
It hasn’t been bullish, not at all. And it might not be. Instead, the 2884.50 bias-down signal triggered, albeit late. Already meeting its 2879.00 bias-down target to within 3 ticks means it won’t become “unfinished business” if left outstanding.
This is still a bias-down environment. Back above 2884.50 would be bias-down rallying, and require being retraced. Perhaps NDX underperformance needs to be absorbed and stabilized, first. Recovering 2884.50 after the bias window starts lapsing would be free to rally — and could still be as bullish as the earlier setup would have been bearish.