members-only
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 6, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It’s payrolls week, so private sector jobs data that is released earlier can help us to shape expectations for Friday. Meanwhile, it’s a holiday-shortened week, so three looks at employment are staggered before Thursday’s open. And any obvious reaction to them will likely be duplicated in reaction to any of the several post-open reports, or to the Fed speaker.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
10:00 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2888.25 | 2888.75 |
| …would target | 2894.50 | 2895.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2881.00 | 2881.50 |
| …would target | 2874.75 | 2875.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Just negative sentiment ahead of payrolls?
REMINDER: I’m away from the screens after this morning… So, Daily Spot and Market Wrap will be published overnight.
The overnight attack on 2884.50 was recovered to attack the 2895.50 bias-down signal before the open. Its reaction down to within 2 ticks of the 2888.75 bias-down target was retraced entirely. Ultimately,
the bias-down target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.
Renewed bias-down targets were essentially 2884.50 and 2880.25. Both have been probed down to 2877.50.
Exiting the bias window back above 2888.75 would have upside potential to fill the gap at yesterday’s close back up to 2899.00, possibly also launching a more powerful rally. Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at the 2877.50 low require a retest. Neutralizing its test and exiting the bias window back above any relevant level could start to seal a bottom.
Testing the 2877.50 low could visit 2875.00. Any lower through a relevant window would start to target 2857.00, and more so, put the market on defense. Currently, the drop from last week’s highs could prove to be backing-and-filling to negotiate negative sentiment ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Any deeper for any longer would start to signal a negative reaction coming from Friday’s report.
Meanwhile, a bounce to 2885.75 is trying to reverse up prematurely, before neutralizing oversold RSIs. Which could happen, albeit less likely. But back under 2882.50 would signal the bounce was a detour, and the low’s retest remains intact.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Back to square <-2>.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
The 3-day holiday weekend was exited back at Friday’s 2891.25 low. A brief bounce resolved down to a fresh low at 2886.00, which was retested after probing a fresh session high at 2901.00. The low’s retest down to 2885.50 which nearly touched the 2884.50 attraction for the current downleg. The balance of the session firmed into the close, and the entire session developed in negative territory. No traction was gained, and no new unfinished business was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging sideways at yesterday’s highs up to 2890.50 began reversing down into Europe’s opens. Extending down tested and retested yesterday’s low down to 2885.00. Ranging at the lows up to 2889.50 for several hours is just now trying to break higher.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s intraday rallies had failed to leave oversold territory, and none gained traction for their efforts or left outstanding higher objectives. None of which is necessarily bearish, but not gapping up today has left open the door to retesting yesterday’s low — especially since yesterday’s low did not fully exploit the room below to 2884.50 or 2880.25. Gapping down keeps that lower potential alive, while also creating an attraction above to the gap back up to yesterday’s close.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2898.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2895.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2891.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2902.50 | 2903.00 |
| …would target | 2908.50 | 2909.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2894.50 | 2895.00 |
| …would target | 2888.25 | 2888.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.