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Market Wrap (recording & summary)
REMINDER: I’m traveling this week, and will have a staggered intraday schedule after the Market Tour and opening hour…
Tuesday afternoon’s rally from its 2885.50 low got to 2889.00, yet still remained in negative territory. Exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high could have gained traction by extending higher into the final hour, but didn’t. Even the 3:10-3:20 proxy window failed to exploit the opportunity to confirm upside traction.
None of which points down Wednesday. But rallying without delay won’t be credible without gapping up above a relevant resistance. Tuesday morning’s 2901.00 high would be a start, but less than optimal.
Stopping 1 point short of touching the next lower objective at 2884.50 wasn’t a deal killer for launching a credible rally. But not yet launching a credible rally does suggest 2884.50 will be better tested, and probably down to 2880.25, without gapping up sufficiently Wednesday morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dropping from Friday’s close to 1.1540 filled an outstanding gap below, but leaves outstanding the minimum likely attraction below at 1.1400.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sharply lower lows coming out of the weekend down to 1195.00 could finally be fulfilling a retest of the recent 1167.00 overnight low, at least own to its 1172.50 objective, but needs a second consecutive lower close to confirm.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The delay in filling the month-old gap had made new lows likely under 14.30, which Tuesday’s slide out of the weekend fulfilled down to 14.03. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would suggest much lower lows to follow.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Last week’s bounce was rejected immediately back under the 143-18 sell signal, probing it down to 143-02. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would confirm last week’s bounce was only a temporary correction.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Stopping short of its 70.55 corrective bounce objective last week was not reversed down, and its reaction held the 69.50 pullback limit. Surging before Tuesday’s open gapped up to 71.22 and reacted down sharply to attack 69.50. Potential for extending higher would invalidated by closing under 69.50.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping back down to 2.83 Tuesday all but rejected Friday’s close above the 2.93 buy signal. Closing under 2.83 now requires a second consecutive lower close to confirm the decline’s momentum has resumed.
Mid-day Update… Trying for another bottom.
A lot of selling, so far holding support.
The open’s dip to 2886.25 was retested after this morning’s noN-bias environment had bounced to test 2901.00. 
The noon hour’s fresh low at 2885.50 was itself retraced up to 2994.00, avoiding the 2890.25 bias-down signal.
Probing under 2892.25 was likely to test the next lower objective at 2884.50. Coming to within 1 point and then triggering a buy signal would not be a deal killer to potential for rallying this afternoon. It’s a calculable support, so not touching it isn’t necessarily excessive optimism.
But while bias-down may not have triggered, it can still be invalidated through 1:30. Avoiding that, or even no-bias trending under 2890.25 can derail an afternoon rally. Yet, having held two more tests of 2888.00 and not triggering bias-down, the burden of proof is on sellers.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Sep 5, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s econ calendar has no high-profile or influential reports. The afternoon’s Fed speaker comes so late that he may be a catalyst for volatility that has been rare at that time recently.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2895.50 | 2896.00 |
| …would target | 2901.00 | 2901.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2889.50 | 2890.25 |
| …would target | 2883.75 | 2884.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.