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Mid-day Update… Overheated.
Working off an overbought, and more.
Rallying straight down from the open through noon has opened the door to an even deeper pullback. But still only temporary, because of another door opened at the high.
Literally, at the high. Or, highs. Complexity during the 2906.25 overnight high formed a “new Globex trend extreme.” The setup requires intraday retest. And the 2903.00 opening print is above all prior highs, requiring it to be filled from below. Neither retest must fulfilled today.
The door that opened to a deeper pullback is from breaking under the 2900.00 bias-up signal to trigger the morning’s no-bias signal. An offsetting test of its 2892.25 bias-down signal has become “unfinished business below.”
This afternoon’s bias window is bouncing to attack its 2901.50 bias-up signal. It’s unlikely to be triggered during the no-bias window. The window starts lapsing soon, and the unfinished business can below can be left outstanding by a retest of the highs — with room up to 2909.00. Otherwise, the pullback is free to resume.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Aug 29, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar isn’t slow, and some of it is high-profile. GDP is very high-profile. But none of it — not even GDP — has a track record for influencing price action. Nevertheless, if any of the pre-open items does seem to trigger a reaction, then the post-open items will likely do the same.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2901.00 | 2901.50 |
| …would target | 2907.25 | 2908.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2893.00 | 2893.75 |
| …would target | 2886.25 | 2887.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Ahead of itself.
Trending down from a gap up.
The 2906.25 bias-up target was touched before the open. It was too long before the open to be considered as met. So, failing to hold above the 2900.00 bias-up signal only puts into play an offsetting test of the 2892.25 bias-down signal.
An offsetting test of the 2886.25 bias-down target is not in-play. But not holding the 2892.25 bias-down signal’s test could extend lower anyway — probably to 2884.50.
Meanwhile, buyers aren’t marginalized. This is a late no-bias, since the bias-up signal was touched within 3 minutes of 10:15 invoke the grace period, and then broken through 10:30.
Even then, that was the bias-up signal’s first post-open touch — I’m always suspicious of late efforts. Overnight lows were just probed by 3 ticks down to 2896.75, which helps to confirm the downside. But back above 2901.50 could take a much bigger detour up, first.
A chaRTroom platform upgrade… REMINDER.
If you access the chaRTroom using Windows, then this announcement from Adobe applies to you. The gist is that an upgrade will be forced on us by Labor Day. CLICK HERE to download it now if you haven’t yet, so any issues can be addressed prior to September 3.