members-only
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Probing new highs. Twice.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s gap up to 2888.50 is above all prior highs, and will want to be retested from below if the trend tries to reverse down. Its 2898.00 cash session close already fulfills for an eventual higher close as required by having made a new trend high close on a Friday. Monday trended up to close above the morning’s 2897.00 high, but under the 2899.25 noon hour high. The session high was within 3 ticks of the next higher objective at 2900.00. No traction was gained for the effort, since the bias window exit and final hour’s entry were under their prior timing window’s highs.
Overnight action’s new info…
Globex immediately began probing yesterday’s high. Hesitation at 2901.00 soon resolved up to attack 2904.00. Already dipping back to 2901.00 by midnight extended down to test yesterday’s cash session close by 2 ticks at 2897.50. Now a bounce is probing back above yesterday’s highs, and trying to recover 2901.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Not gaining traction for yesterday’s rally isn’t necessarily bearish. It means that its sponsorship’s buying pressure was fulfilled. This is also measurable by having met and held the next higher objective within 3 ticks of the 2900.00 doubly-renewed bias-up target. Resuming the trend Tuesday morning isn’t likely without gapping up above Monday’s highs — which is currently indicated. A concern about the trend’s durability is now its impatience in probing a round number — 2900.00 ES, and 26,000 Dow — instead of expressing restrained optimism. Not gaining traction yesterday and holding a test of its next higher objective make the NEXT higher objective at 2909.00 extra vulnerable to reversing down. Meanwhile, having probed yesterday’s high overnight and then reversing to the earlier overnight lows at 2898.50, exiting the open any lower would reverse momentum down for at least the morning — and help to relieve excess optimism.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2896.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2900.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2901.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2899.50 | 2900.00 |
| …would target | 2905.75 | 2906.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2891.50 | 2892.25 |
| …would target | 2885.50 | 2886.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Trending up from the open through the morning.What else is new. Not that this pattern has repeated daily, but it has been the likely path up when taken. Higher to a morning or noon peak, and then sideways through the close.
The pattern is no less vulnerable to reversing down from Monday’s 2898.00 cash session close than it was at Thursday and Friday’s closes. And a reversal down would likely track one of two paths — either already trending down overnight, or else blipping-up at the open into a Wile E. Coyote cliffhanger moment. Pullback objectives remain 2867.25-2869.50 if not also 2860.00-2861.50.
Not already trending down at Tuesday’s open or soon after it could instead resume the rally, which is essentially next targeting 2909.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming temporarily Sunday night was followed Monday morning to fresh highs including the next higher resistance at 1.1700. The current sell signal at 1.1600 will be raised.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s surge up to 1215.00 had much more room available for a pullback than just 1209.50, which was recovered to fresh highs attacking 1220.00 resistance.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s fluctuation around 14.78 resistance where Friday once again close was somewhat improved Monday, having potential for a temporary detour to 15.05 before fulfilling an intraday test of 14.45.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s post-close blip-up to fresh recovery highs at 145-29 was touched Sunday night, and then retraced back down to Friday’s 145-02 low Monday. The ineffectual pessimism had started to become restrained optimism, which is an unnecessary stage on the way to surging.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging Sunday night held the upper-end of 68.00-68.25 support, maintaining the upside target at 70.55.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s dip extended lower Sunday night to within a nickel of the pullback’s 2.85 objective, and then another 2-cents closer intraday.
Mid-day Update… Cannons et clairons.
War with Mexico ends with a celebratory event.
Il faut acheter au son du canon et vendre au son du clairon? Warren Buffet is reported to have cited this quote, 
“buy on the cannons and sell on the bugles.” The war with Mexico has ended — or, at least, the trade war against the world, Mexico division. Now, music!
So, the next higher objective is this morning’s doubly-renewed bias-up target at 2900.00. The noon hour attacked it to within 3 ticks, (to within 1 tick of the afternoon’s bias-up signal), while RSIs diverged negatively. The entire noon hour hovered narrowly at its highs, until exiting the noon hour in decline.
Back under 2896.00 would signal momentum reversing down. This afternoon’s 2893.00 bias-down signal would need to define the window’s extreme if tested, which could mean recovering from 2886.25 or 2883.75. Rallying through 2899.50 by 1:30 would have no such restraint on the upside.