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Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 28, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is very busy, and a little high-profile, too. But only one report has a reliable track record for influencing price action. It’s post-open, so it’s likely to duplicate the obvious reaction to any pre-open report.
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Retail Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2899.00 | 2899.50 |
| …would target | 2906.25 | 2906.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2892.25 | 2893.00 |
| …would target | 2885.75 | 2886.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Willing and eager buyers.
Pre-open surge finds reinforcements.
The 2892.25 renewed bias-up signal and potentially 2900.00 probably seemed pretty far removed from the overnight ranging around 2883.00, already up 6 points from Friday’s close. (Their initial typo — calco? — 2992.25 and 3000.00 didn’t seem much further away.)
But a pre-open surge 90 minutes before the open was already testing 2889.00. And not reacting down early would be only likelier to extend sharply higher. The first hour’s near-relentless trending touched 2897.00.
A pullback is now testing 2892.25 as support. Extending any lower would threaten fresh post-open lows under 2887.00. Otherwise, back above 2895.25 would start targeting new highs up to 2900.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Picking right up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Already firming 8 points into Friday’s 2856.00 open was extended up to 2877.00 by noon. That was 3 points back above the prior week’s highs, whose test defined the balance of the session. A dip to 2871.00 into the afternoon bias timing window was recovered only enough to hover 1 point pessimistically short of touching the morning’s highs. Exiting the afternoon bias window entering the final hour within the prior timing window’s range failed to gain traction.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open surged immediately 4 points up to 2881.00. Higher highs were soon testing 2883.00. It was probed by 5 ticks into midnight, basically ranging flat-to-higher from 2881.25 to 2884.75 .
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The next higher objective at 2883.00 — which is also this morning’s bias-up target — was thoroughly tested overnight. Another new intraday high was all but required by Friday afternoon’s ranging, whether immediate, or as the recovery from gapping down under its 2871.00 low.. Another new high close is still possible, if not also required. But the overnight new highs don’t make an intraday high or new high close any more assured — not yet, not until coming to within 60-90 minutes of the open. The overnight range’s characteristics that are similar to Friday afternoon make it similarly vulnerable to greeting the open either above or below its 2881.00-2885.00 range.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2880.50 would b elikely at least to trigger the 2778.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2887.75 would be likely to exceed the 2883.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2892.25 and potentially 2900.00.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/25/18) …More to come.
This weekend’s Saturday Review focuses on the two (or three) likely resolutions from Friday’s pattern. Higher highs remain likely, at some point if not immediately. And if not immediately, two specific lower levels would be likely to launch the next rally leg. Their paths and characteristics are detailed. Then the bigger picture is reviewed, including general market behaviors that continue to confirm our ongoing outlook.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
TLRY, CGC, ARNA, GE, MSFT, TSLA
transcript