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Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu, Mar 21, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Both of Thursday’s two pre-open reports are high-profile, but only one has a reliable track record for influencing price action. The post-open report qualifies for both influential and high-profile, and reaction to it is likely to repeat the pre-open price action.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2824.00 | 2829.25 |
| …would target | 2828.25 | 2835.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2815.75 | 2821.00 |
| …would target | 2807.75 | 2813.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Trying support.
Bias-down signal holds multiple tests. And still being tested.
My pre-open update noted that the 2828.50 bias-down signal was unlikely to trigger ahead of FOMC. 
Sponsorship is difficult to generate ahead of an event. It wasn’t even near being tested as the pre-open pullback had tested and retested 2834.00. But a post-open collapse from the 2836.50 open pierced 2828.50.
Its test held, reacting up to 2832.00. As did the next deeper test. One more test after invoking the grace period touched the room for noise down to 2825.25, and recovered enough to avoid triggering bias-down. An offsetting test of the 2842.25 bias-up signal is in-play, but 2828.50 was tested again.
Perhaps the choppiness and delay is the effect of Brexit headlines crossing during the open. But the opportunity for strong hands to have signaled a bearish sentiment has passed, at least until backing-and-filling to resistance, at least with any confidence.
At least a bounce up to 2837.50 remains likely initially, so long as 2828.50 continues holding as support. But only so long, as not yet rallying off of 2828.50‘s tests when the bias environment starts lapsing would suggest that patient buyers are letting sellers have more room.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Big day, big prep.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Rallying sharply Monday night had formed a “new Globex trend extreme” at 2853.00. It also allowed probing fresh highs without relying on intraday sponsorship, which had failed to maintain Monday morning’s highs. Gapping up to 2849.75 ranged choppily sideways until the bias environment came within view of lapsing, then surged 15 points to attack 2859.00 as noon began. Intraday sponsorship did it again, retracing the rally down to 2853.00, then collapsing to 2841.50 on a China trade headline. A bounce to 2852.00 was reversed to fresh session lows through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window to signal a more substantial drop forming. Right into the position-squaring window at 2829.00, bouncing back up to 2840.00 through the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Volatility is already alive, including a fresh low, and a wide reversal around unchanged. Tuesday’s late bounce had begun retracing back down immediately at the Globex open. The late low was retested by 1 point to 2828.00, essentially this morning’s bias-down signal. A bounce retraced 61.8% up to 2835.50 by midnight, where a consolidation resolved up and extended the bounce through Europe’s opens to 2842.50. That’s essentially this morning’s bias-up signal, and a probe into positive territory, and their resistance has reacted down to 2834.00, and looking at least a little lower.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
No “unfinished business” above, and two consecutive sessions of distribution ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC events, doesn’t prevent rallying. Whether ahead of the event in belief that yesterday’s drop was defensive enough, or in reaction to the event because another bullet is dodged. Regardless, the Fed — and all Central Banks — are in a controversial phase of trying to let rhetoric do their work, all creating a very opportunistic trading environment.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2830.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2828.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2838.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2842.25 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2836.75 | 2842.25 |
| …would target | 2842.50 | 2848.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2822.75 | 2828.50 |
| …would target | 2816.00 | 2821.75 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.