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Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2634.50 | 2634.25 |
| …would target | 2642.00 | 2641.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2627.75 | 2627.50 |
| …would target | 2622.25 | 2622.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP SIGNAL (updated for MAR, a 2.50 premium to Dec) | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s optimism lasted longest, and lasted latest. Its last high printed just AFTER the afternoon bias environment had begun lapsing at 2:30. Entering the final hour had retraced it from 2634.50 back under the 2633.75 prior high all the way down to 2631.75.
In other words (or, IN words, actually), not a lot of range. That wasn’t strong selling pressure, and it had become too late for strong-handed sellers to suddenly arrive. Higher highs earned by the morning’s multiple dips into negative territory remained likely, such as the “unfinished business above” at 2635.50.
It was too late for strong-handed sellers, but hovering at the highs had inhibited buyers from exploiting. So, a weak-handed dip to 2628.00 became likely, which was accomplished into the close. Closing under 2631.75 allows fresh highs overnight to fulfill the outstanding objective, and already trend down into Thursday’s open. Recovering 2631.75 and higher through the open may be the only way to avoid trending down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Trending down throughout Wednesday further under the 1.1860 sell signal that triggered Tuesday went on to test 1.1790, which must break lower to confirm the recent upleg has been broken.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat, narrow ranging Wednesday may appear to be stability, but it is not accumulation, which is the only way to avoid printing lower lows. So, any initial strength Thursday would be likely to resolve down.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s narrow range may avoid confirming the breakout’s momentum to the downside, but it doesn’t prevent further downside Thursday. Early strength would be likely to fail.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Wednesday to and through Friday’s 154-06 prior high and extending to 154-18 was maintained through the afternoon. Pullbacks must now hold 153-10 to maintain the upside momentum.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Wednesday from 57.40 to the prior pullback limit of 56.80 needed to hold to still qualify as only a temporary pullback. But the session extended down to attack 56.10, now leaving a gap back up to 57.40 that must be recovered to reinstate upside targets.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s test of the 2.87 target firmed intraday and overnight for Wednesday’s open to gap up and test 2.96. Reacting down filled the gap back to Tuesday’s 2.91 close, leaving no unfinished business below. Thursday’s EIA report isn’t being greeted from a position of weakness, but would have been a position of strength to close above Tuesday’s 2.93 high.
Mid-day Update… Once more, for a gapper.
Still holding support despite leaving unfinished business above.
This morning’s 2626.00 bias-down signal withstood 3-4 tests as support. They all held, especially through relevant windows. An offsetting test of its 2635.50 bias-up signal was put into play.
And it remains in-play, as the range persists. A noon hour dip from 2633.75 touched 2626.00 again, and held again. Now a break higher is testing 2632.00. Although this is a no-bias environment, there’s room to fluctuate up to its bias-up signal. Which happens also to be “unfinished business above” at 2635.50.
Back under 2628.00 would start to signal another downdraft underway. And this late in the day, another downdraft would be likelier to probe fresh session lows — albeit only temporarily before recovering. Otherwise, fulfilling the upside attraction would become vulnerable to a downdraft, too.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Dec 7, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Any noticeable reaction to Wednesday’s two pre-open reports would likely be duplicated by the post-open reports. But neither has a track record for influencing price action. Meanwhile, the pre-open Fed speaker could be influential.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET