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Mid-day Update… Waiting for payday.
Meeting the rally’s target enables inhibition ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls.
I certainly did not give buyers any benefit of the doubt through the open. That would change either by the opening 15 minutes holding a test of yesterday’s 2628.50 lows, or else by triggering the 2634.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. The latter developed, late, but still valid. One pullback developed along the way to the 2642.25 bias-up target.
The target was met during this morning’s bias environment. The noon hour consolidated narrowly around it. A blip-up coming out of the noon hour probed it, piercing the afternoon’s 2643.50 bias-up signal. A blip-up that has probed under the noon hour’s narrow range.
Triggering this afternoon’s bias-up would have been difficult. The morning’s buying pressure was fulfilled. And anxiousness ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report commonly paralyzes Thursday afternoon price action.
Trending differs from backing-and-filling. That could still develop back down to this afternoon’s 2636.50 bias-down signal during the no-bias environment. And lower afterward. Meanwhile, probing above 2643.50 would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced.
NOTE: All price level references and bias parameters are now basis MAR, which has become the front-month, and currently trades at a ~2.50 premium to DEC.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Dec 8, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The monthly Employment Situation report is usually offered in a vacuum with little or no other economic data. Friday’s pre-open report is followed by a post-open high-profile report with its own reliable track record for inhibiting and/or influencing price action. And its likely to duplicate any reaction to the payrolls report.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2641.25 | 2643.50 |
| …would target | 2646.50 | 2648.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2634.25 | 2636.50 |
| …would target | 2629.25 | 2631.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL… PRICES ARE BASIS MAR, A 2.50 PREMIUM TO DEC |
FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… What’s the hold-up.
Rolling front-month coverage forward to Mar this afternoon.
[Mar is trading at a ~2.50 premium to Dec] The overnight drop had extended down to 2626.50 (basis Dec) just before the open. RSIs didn’t get oversold, so the open’s retest didn’t diverge positively. That didn’t prevent rallying back to unchanged at 2629.25, and then extending higher to the 2631.75 bias-up signal.
Fluctuating around bias-up at 2629.50-2632.50 invoked the grace period. Bias-up triggered decisively at 10:30. And it has extended up to 2635.00 while taking RSIs overbought.
The bias-up target in-play is 2639.25 (2641.50 basis Mar). Just for having retested intraday yesterday’s “unfinished business above” at 2635.50 enables a sell signal to be productive — despite being short of the bias-up target.
I’m viewing this bounce as counter-trend, and likely to resolve down. Already testing the 2635.50 unfinished business above overnight has resolved down to open in negative territory. Triggering bias-up and retesting 2635.50 intraday don’t reinforce the bearish assumption. Regardless, entering the noon hour back under this morning’s bias-up signal would at least be likely to delay further upside.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Sneak attack.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open was greeted at the morning’s 2626.00 bias-down signal, having recovered from an overnight dip to the 2020.50 bias-down target. Fluctuating between positive and negative territory never deteriorated and only improved. Its swings were wide, albeit narrower than was expected, repeatedly dipping to the 2626.00 between higher highs from 2631.25 to 2634.50. A late dip started too late to be strong-handed, stopping 2 points short of prior lows at 2628.00 before the close. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at 2635.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
That unfinished business above could have been neutralized overnight, and it was. The Globex open had recovered immediately back up to 2631.75. It was soon recovered on the way up to 2637.00, fulfilling Wednesday morning’s 2635.50 unfinished business above. Narrow flat-to-lower ranging eventually accelerated downward into and out of Europe’s opens, probing all of yesterday’s highs down to 2631.00. Bouncing almost 4 points had only pierced back above those prior highs, when RSIs diverged negatively to launch another downleg that is now piercing yesterday’s 2629.25 close.
If, then…
Closing yesterday under 2631.75 allowed fresh highs overnight to fulfill the outstanding objective. Already trending down into Thursday’s open will be predictive, depending on what that is being probed. Probing negative territory would be likelier to extend, while already testing yesterday’s intraday lows could still hold their test to form a bottom. Recovering 2631.75 and higher through the open may be the only way to avoid trending down. And simply probing back above yesterday’s highs could be bullish since the overnight action already neutralized that requirement. A lot will be known by where the afternoon is greeted, as the market positions itself ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2629.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2631.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2635.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s morning working to her December 7th a date that will live in infamy or did everybody knows it is Vito Corleone’s Corleone’s birthday and something else happened as well and something sneak attack maybe happened overnight member we left yesterday session having held test multiple tests through the morning of the 26th 26 bias down signal multiple multiple tests that’s in the negative territory out of negative territory depository but for this little blip down at 2626 held like a rock and the interim produced higher and higher highs and having held 2626 which was the bias down signal put in the playoffs which was 26 3550 left outstanding the more that morning and the afternoon in the afternoon which had or gotten one would have come within three ticks of the bias up mornings bicep signal The Unfinished Business about the neutralize it but did not necessitating because it took so long before that afternoon range even broke necessitated a pull back to stretch that rubber band and as late as that pullback began we knew it would be weekend and the potential is down to 2628 which was tagged here right before the close because it was weak and fulfilling that late dip because it was weekends fulfilling that late dip it was possible to neutralize possible to neutralize the upside unfinished business above that is overnight so long as any problem of yesterday’s highs is neutralized to the overnight that is not recovered not recovered to probe of yesterday’s eyes during the open or at least exiting the open then I won’t ever get to the point where that ships back into becoming but it was tested overnight testing overnight retest it overnight up to 6:37 and then reacted down not just once back down into the support yesterday’s highs but after having bounce not arbitrarily within those eyes with back above those eyes starting again regrouping having a chance to limit the dip to just that one program TSA size dipping back into those eyes and lower than the first attempt low enough that we don’t know how this is going to resolve low enough that yes it is closed 2016 925 is being tested the difference between positive negative and negative predictive but it’s relevant so if the open is probing even deeper in the negative territory then that’s probably bearish probably so long as it hasn’t gotten too carried away and is already probing back under yesterday morning’s was at least 26 26 which will possibly be bearish so long as 26.60 days prior Lowe’s if tested Post open openso that the opening 15 minutesenergy so quickly as to probe under that relevant level and not maintain that break through a relevant window that would suggest not necessarily momentum reversing right back up but that support intended to hold breaking of the essays Lowe’s if yes he’s lives are tested through the open and fail to hold through the open well that’s just more of the same of this reversal where there is no unfinished business above neutralizing having neutralize that attraction above that was left out standing at yesterday’s close and yesterday’s range which is a point it out and it looks stable because it didn’t go anywhere although there was some degree of instability in that these swings back and forth and positive territory they were pretty wide albeit not as wide as expected today we did expect a lot of consternation and arguing between Up and Down based on where and how Tuesday and closed but usually that signal leads to much wider and fewer moves but in case the new Range while it looked stable because it ultimately didn’t do much I didn’t get off the mark much especially compared to last couple days to climb that’s not stability it’s not accumulation and the decline is now instead of accumulated against absorb his only paused and is free to resume or at least try to put in some accumulated Behavior to avoid trending now and so silver which turned it down yesterday stopping 1590 that would have been a pretty healthy objective and this is after multi-session range broke out so it was confirmed yesterday is now required still extending lower overnight signal that was broken into and out of the weekend and now this Friday tomorrow we have another employment situation report coming so much lower lows in play and that’s by the way seems to be an employment situation report phenomenon because there’s the last pretty much associated with the same thing one more lower closed today would for Phil Silvers minimum requirement for a fresh low close create the same requirement multiple sessions on Tuesday and yesterday at least and then for a couple months still the lower end of the range coming into tomorrow’s employment situation report overnight so 5550 so farhello it does protect add to 61.8% extension from this range from to the most relevant price points that Define this range so it is sort of room for noise room for noise meaning it can be a false break it can just be that room to accompany say silver it gets lower lows out of its system cuz they’re probably not going to divert from each other but any lower preferably close back about 1260 at a minimum to even begin suggesting that sellers aren’t really bringing it but having tested 12 5550 12:50 actually 12 d585 feeling to close above 1260 would suggest negative reaction coming to tomorrow’s employment situation report which doesn’t really prevent their being a second consecutive lower close didn’t produce as I can get her clothes yesterday so that doesn’t necessitate but it does put the test to develop today we don’t know if there is copper and it closes positive that at this stage of the formation which is essentially Tuesdays High to suggest probably in this range before suggesting or signaling let alone would have been the by signal to that about 5740 but this is where we’re going to start looking looking at the actual resolution to determine the consequence natural gas Limitedbuttrying to get the stuff out of here 2 to 80 to 81 so that low will need to be were tested at some point intraday likely or whatever the opens Gap if the Gap is lower at least the opens Gap will need to be retested intraday from above so say the open is hypothesizing here which is the technical term for spitballing 285 having traded to anyone before they open but overnight and gapping down still on 281 bounce back on report which still need if not it today someday to test at least he opens Gap from above that is really from this how I just from testing at all and potentially even before a bottom would be credible so we take away this by signal because it could be recovered prematurely and not be bullish so what is it that after the news not following through necessarily on the cover yesterday’s break which came all the way down to supportokay we took a minute there to fix this so the Euro which came all the way down to three critical support and 11790 being probed overnight the Yen this moment not exploiting that it bounced back into this critical range which needs to be recovered 8989 20 Looney if it has a bullish scenario it was going to come down at least to 7820 at but at least hold 78 305 to make a turn here attracted Higher by these gaps up not doing so well and holding that over night but that is a critical part of that setup which is to reverse higher overnight pound which broke now extending even lower and the Aussie full feeling that unfinished business below these rallies were premature no matter what they tried to do they weren’t going to gain traction while that unfinished business below is outstanding at this two-week-old Gap that was tested pretty early last night and now probing even lower alright a lot today which we have now done and I’ll come back in before the open as well if there’s any questions before then if there’s any material changes to the chart okay good luck today
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