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Post-open Review… The ayes have it.
Post-open weakness absorbed.
The 2849.75 open immediately bounced to within 4 ticks of the 2853.00 overnight high, and another bounce came within 3 ticks. Just coming to within 3 ticks would suffice for neutralizing the attraction to calculable and RSI objectives, and 4 ticks for retesting a new high.
The preference for a “new Globex trend extreme” is to actually touch it intraday, but that wouldn’t have prevented sellers from gaining traction. They tried. A sell signal under 2847.00 was probed, but never by at least 4 ticks. And the 2847.75 bias-up target was retested several times as support, but it held through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
So, bias-up is renewed, next targeting 2853.50 and potentially 2857.00. A break maintained back under 2847.00 could test the 2841.75 bias-up signal as support during the bias-up environment without reversing the trend down.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Unbounded.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s choppy ranging was flat-to-higher, until Monday’s post-open surge probed above Friday’s 2834.50-2836.50 highs to 2841.00. The bearish WedEX was in hibernation until the bias environment’s last half-hour retraced it all by collapsing back down to the 2830.00 open. This isolated the morning’s probe above of prior highs, which would have formed a top by closing back under the morning’s 2829.50 low. Instead, the balance of the session rallied back up to Friday’s 2834.50-2836.50 highs, and then back up to the morning’s 2841.00 high. This satisfied the eventual higher close required by Friday’s new trend high close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s late surge back up to the morning’s highs didn’t pause as it extended through the Globex open to 2843.50. A pullback attacked 2839.00 before recovering to a higher high attacking 2845.00. The 2841.75 bias-up signal provided a shelf of support as price consolidated through midnight, and also through Europe’s opens. The range eventually finally broke, higher, sharply higher, now testing 2853.00. The overnight high includes complexity that qualifies it as a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring eventual intraday retest, often the same day.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Two strong-handed sponsorships battled at the highs Monday, so it was unlikely Tuesday’s pattern would just range narrowly. Monday morning’s isolated probe avoided reversing momentum down, but the reversal attempt was made. Yesterday afternoon’s buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts, but the overnight rally is going to ask intraday buyers to immediately reinforce yet higher prices. Gapping up above all prior highs will leave an anchor wanting to be retested from below, in case of an immediate post-open reversal down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2848.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2847.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2853.25 and potentially 2857.00. Exiting the open above 2846.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2841.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2836.25 | 2841.75 |
| …would target | 2842.25 | 2847.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2827.50 | 2833.00 |
| …would target | 2819.75 | 2825.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s post-open probe above Friday’s 2834.50-2836.50 highs to 2841.00 was retraced entirely back to the 2830.00 open when the bias environment had begun lapsing. Isolating a probe of relevant resistance or support to a relevant timing window suggests that its sponsorship is done.
This would have been confirmed by closing back under that window’s 2829.50 low, but it held. Confirmation could have been held open by closing back under Friday’s 2834.50-2836.50 highs. but they were recovered. The confirmation window can be re-opened by proxy, by exiting Tuesday’s open back under Monday afternoon’s 2833.00 low. Which might even form a “session-long decline” setup.
Otherwise, the trend remains up. But there is no “unfinished business” above. Friday’s new trend high close had required at least an eventual third trend high close. Knowing this context is very helpful during a detour from the new high close. That was possible, even likely, given the bearish WedEX. The open’s surge foreclosed upon that. Two strong-handed sponsorships battled at the highs Monday, so it’s unlikely the pattern just ranges narrowly here — at least not past Tuesday afternoon’s bias environment, if at all.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The new week was greeted firmer, but still only testing last week’s highs, as the 1.1380 sell signal remains intact if triggered.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Monday within Friday’s range needed to extend higher intraday to be more than just noise, resuming the rally. But the range held, keeping alive the upside momentum.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap up attacked the resistance of last Tuesday’s highs, still needing a higher close to signal the rally has resumed.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still overlapping the 146-00 buy signal Friday did not change much Monday, as the session ranged around it flat-to-higher. A reaction down has room to 145-16 before signaling the bounce has ended.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s optimistically shallow, brief dip had recovered only to unchanged. Sunday night’s dip was recovered into Monday’s open and extended higher to attack 59.25. The confirmed breakout’s minimum requirement for at least an eventual third higher close may be fulfilled, needing to close above 59.50 to signal the rally is extending.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s reaction down from 2.84 resistance was recovered yet again, still being the buy signal for resuming the rally, and still being likely to trigger.