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Mid-day Update… Reaching critical mess.
Sloppy morning opens the door to paradigm shifting down.
The bearish WedEX wasn’t influential Monday morning. Until it was.
The first half-hour surged to fresh highs at 2840.50. 
Trending down throughout the morning had essentially required the opening 15 minutes of volatility to already be in decline. So, a 5-1/2 point dip was recovered to retest the high up to 2841.00.
Then the last half-hour of the bias environment collapsed, back down to the 2830.25 open. The bias environment made no net gain. And the exit even extended a little lower down to 2827.50. The bias environment finished lapsing at noon, back at 2830.25. So, WedEX was influential, however useless it was for having delayed its effect.
While WedEX’s relevance ends with Monday morning’s bias environment, the end of Monday morning’s bias environment is still relevant. The window isolated a failed probe of fresh highs, suggesting a near-term peak. And the reaction down’s test of relevant structural support — the 2830.25 opening print, which was also Friday’s futures close — was still being tested at noon, and not itself isolated.
Now this afternoon’s no-bias environment is testing its 2836.25 bias-up signal as resistance. It should define the window’s upper-end. This makes it a good candidate for being a corrective bounce’s peak before resolving down to fresh session lows. So, we’re monitoring for any credible reversal down that could snowball aggressively. Otherwise, exiting the bias environment in rally mode would be bullish.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 19, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s post-open econ report is somewhat high-profile, but has no track record for influencing price action. Meanwhile, anxiousness may begin paralyzing price action Tuesday afternoon ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC policy statement and Fed Chair Q&A.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2830.75 | 2836.25 |
| …would target | 2836.75 | 2842.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2819.75 | 2825.25 |
| …would target | 2814.25 | 2819.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bearish influence missing.
Opening surge holds up gains.
The overnight ranging narrowed a bit into the open, albeit still entirely within Friday afternoon’s range. The opening print was at the 2830.25 bias-up signal, which surged 3 points almost immediately, and then higher through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Much more so through the first half-hour to 2840.50.
None of which behaved in-line with the bearish WedEX, which would allow only the first half of the opening 15 minutes to rally. WedEX is not influential.
A 5-1/2 point pullback was recovered to fluctuate around the high. Extending above 2841.00 would signal that reinforcements had arrived, likely to trend up through the noon hour. Back under 2837.25 would start to signal a Double Top was being reversed down to 2834.00 or 2830.75.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… A slow, unsteady start.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s overnight retest of 2825.00 had collapsed like the night before, but this time recovered in time for gapping up to 2819.00. The morning was restrained by Wednesday’s 2826.50 high, while ranging exclusively in positive territory. The restraints evaporated with the bias environment lapsing, allowing a 10-point surge into the noon hour that touched 2836.50. Bias-up triggered, but its 2838.25 target was left outstanding as the late-morning surge retraced throughout the afternoon. A last-minute surge from 2823.50 to the 2828.00 cash session close left a new trend high close that requires another eventual higher close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped back down from Friday’s post-close surge, back through Friday’s 2828.00 cash session close. The low soon held 2824.00, just above Friday afternoon’s late low, and began reversing up. Recovering back into positive territory rallied into and out of Europe’s opens, attacking 2834.00. All of which has been contained within Friday afternoon’s range, and now price has reversed back down to unchanged.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s new trend high close offers context that ensures a recovery in case of reversing down Monday. And Monday is vulnerable to reversing down, which is suggested by still overlapping Wednesday’s 2826.50 prior highs 3 minutes before Friday’s close. Meanwhile, Friday afternoon’s pessimism confirms the bearish WedEX signal will influence Monday morning’s price action — regardless of whether the open gaps up or down. The entire opening 15 minutes could trend up, but not any higher, if the bearish WedEX influence remains intact.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2833.00 would be likely to trigger the 2830.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2825.25 would b unlikely to trigger bias-up.