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Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2629.25 | 2628.50 |
| …would target | 2634.25 | 2633.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2618.25 | 2617.50 |
| …would target | 2611.75 | 2611.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UPS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Greeting Tuesday’s open at or above all prior highs needed to reverse down quickly, if the morning were going to reverse down at all. But the opening 15 minutes of volatility probed a fresh high instead, albeit momentarily. And the alternative to reversing down was to trend up, which became increasingly likely as selling failed to materialize.
Recent optimism has been characterized by shallow consolidations and gaps up that don’t trend intraday. That optimistic environment combined with the session’s bias-up targets to produce another optimistic session, as defined by its substantial relentless uplegs. That difference in character is obvious. Tuesday’s bigger difference is that now the optimism is obvious, and backing-and-filling would be a sign of weakness.
Meanwhile, this leg has room up to 2631.75, and the rally has potential up to 2657.25. Neither of which is assured, especially if pushback on Wednesday is substantial.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing slightly lower overnight and a little more so Tuesday morning only extended the break under 1.1930, but has yet to close under 1.1860 where a bigger downleg would be signaled.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially weak Tuesday morning held “lower prior highs” at 1291.00-1292.00, and recovered the 1293.00 pullback limit to maintain potential for confirming Monday’s breakout attempt.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s opening break under 16.95 collapsed to attack 16.70, whose break would next target 16.50.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging overnight began firming Tuesday morning and extended to fresh highs attacking 154-28. The rally has no excuse not to resume without further delay, or else break back under 154-00 to 153-00 or lower.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight weakness retested Monday’s low, still needing to close above last Thursday’s 58.15 highs — decisively — to confirm having absorbed the pullback and resuming the rally.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up several cents Tuesday continued to leave outstanding the gap back down to Friday’s 2.92 close, and now also the gap back down to Monday’s 3.02 close, both of which undermine a recovery attempt. Tuesday’s test of 3.14-3.16 resistance is likely to hold through the close to contain the corrective bounce.
Mid-day Update… New highs! Fireworks! Wait…
Opening rally extends into missile launch… and through it?
The open’s 2606.50 buy signal ultimately extended higher through the morning’s bias environment exit, which touched the 2610.00 bias-up target. 
Then the rally accelerated. Surging 4 points into the noon hour, and adding another 6 points through its exit.
This afternoon’s 2615.00 bias-up signal easily triggered. Its 2622.00 bias-up target has been attacked to within 6 ticks. All on the same leg that had been triggered above 2606.50. What could go wrong.
Well, already slipping 2 points to 2618.50, the latest N. Korea Missile launch triggered a drop to within 1 tick of 2615.00. A 3-point bounce has reacted down 7 points to 2611.00.
Being a knee-jerk reaction to a news headline, the drop’s sponsorship is weak-handed. The pullback should be only temporary. But retesting the high and fulfilling the bias-up target need to recover 2616.00 before extending under 2611.00
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 29, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar is more diverse than influential. The pre-open GDP is high-profile, but any obvious price reaction is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports. Meanwhile, the Fed speakers are likely to get more focus, especially Yellen, one day following Powell’s hearing. Inhibition ahead of the afternoon’s Beige Book isn’t unusual.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
*Janet Yellen Speaks
10:00 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
1:50 PM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET