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Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2615.75 | 2615.00 |
| …would target | 2622.75 | 2622.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2609.75 | 2609.00 |
| …would target | 2604.75 | 2604.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up.
Gap up extends.
The overnight recovery up to this morning’s 2605.00 bias-up signal finally broke higher just before the open. The pre-open surge touched 2606.75. Dipping into and out of the open twice tested 2604.50 as support. Reactions up probed higher and higher.
The open was likely either to quickly decline — sooner than did yesterday’s similar setup — or else trigger bias-up. Holding positive territory made bias-up increasingly likely to trigger, which it did, now targeting 2610.00.
2610.00 has been attacked already to within 5 ticks at 2608.75. The target remains in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 2605.50 as support. Nothing requires the rally to persist after fulfilling 2610.00. Little prevents a deeper pullback before fulfilling 2610.00. But already reacting down from 2610.00 before this afternoon’s Senate tax development would be vulnerable to trending back down.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Kicking in their stalls.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
The weekend was exited similar to how it was entered, probing new highs, but more choppily. Sunday night’s attack on 2604.50 had reacted down 7 points overnight before recovering entirely. Pre-open tests of 2604.50 reacted down nearly 5 points, and a post-open touch of 2605.50 reacted down nearly 8 points. Bouncing into the noon hour barely firmed coming out of it, as the afternoon ranged very narrowly around unchanged at the 2601.75 opening print. The week began a little differently than it was ended, leaving “unfinished business below” at the morning’s 2596.50 bias objective.
Overnight action’s new info…
For the second consecutive night, both bias signals have been touched. And in the same order. The Globex open spiked down from the afternoon’s 2600.50-2601.75 narrow range and extended to touch this morning’s 2597.50 bias-down signal. Its retest was reversed up and has extended relentlessly to touch the 2605.00 bias-up signal, hesitating at yesterday’s highs, now 3-5 points into positive territory.
If, then…
Touching both bias signals overnight again suggests intraday action will try trending. Not only touching either bias signal but also probing it, regardless of whether done early enough or for long enough to trigger. If the open is still testing bias-up as currently indicated, then triggering it is a little more likely since it held its test yesterday, since sequentially similar setups tend to resolve differently. Pulling back to greet the open only firmer would still likely be attracted by a retest of yesterday’s highs. Trending down this morning is less likely without already greeting the open back in negative territory, or else stretching the rubber band much more to the upside too quickly to attract reinforcements.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2602.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2605.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it is time for this morning’s Tuesday Morning Market to her okay so member of the most interesting feature to Sunday night’s trading as it applied to yesterday’s open in the morning if not the session that was that the overnight range had touched both bias parameters pre-open so the low actually touched 25 9650 which was the bias down signal for the morning not otherwise relevant until 10:15 at least addictive until 10:15 about 12 hours earlier so not predicted but still it support that’s why it’s breakthrough 10:15 would have been so relevant to the downside same thing for the open 60453 Relevant resistance exceeding it or not there 10:15 if they even tested Post open to 10:15 that would be predicted but meanwhile it is resistance so it’s predicted or it’s influential that is by touching overnight that told us that the market is opinionated interested in expressing its opinion not dying on the vine or like Friday for instance last night has done the same thing now and this morning that it would actually one of the other but not as a little bit this morning if in fact the open is testing one of the way but still open is actually greater likelihood of resolving differently than yesterday which would mean either triggering bias up or as you can see there was quite a consolidation around the bicep signal yesterday morning until the environment this morning the alternative is likely to trim down as opposed to waiting so one of the other very early this morningor at least likely if opening at the one other possibility actually pretty normalfinish pre open application to extend higher so that we actually greet the openhire or Post open immediately search actually test or attack the bias of Target 2610 and do so so quickly that reinforcements don’t arrive and the morning plunges collapses at least back to unchanged but we are going to have a cell signal we open basically around by us up signal we’re going to have a cell signal at play at all times okay other markets he came back down to this corrective bicycle remember this just correct the bounce having left unfinished business below after testing one potential Peak yesterday by the pound little bit further overnight not really enough to not really enough yet to confirm momentum is reversing down basically the rally from last week’s low to yesterday’s opening has potential to recover without actually rejecting that bounce but overnight not exactly holding that 7820 is holding through the open or so long as bounce back into positive territory where to develop after testing 7820 that would be at this point positive for at least a retest of the high probably more substantial up like but that’s the point now is closed positive that was just being challenged 24 hours ago confirmed under the actual signal signal broke But continuing to soften that’s the minimum objective of the bicycles and it’s tested tested and retested need to get out of 9042 suggest or signal actually something more substantial update copper I was just testing lower prioritize with this Gap outstanding above that wants to be tested wants to be filled From Below wouldn’t know without closing under 311 Down 311 maybe a little nine so if this is just a temporary to test these lower prioritize the upper end of this range which is being tested now so there’s a bullish scenario that allows this current test the 307 area to hold07today preferably close back about 3:11 today if not tomorrow meanwhile silver 1695 is support has the potential to close actually close above 1711 and triggered up leg gold as long as it holds 12 93939 350th support has the potential to exploit yesterday’s rally which otherwise is a little suspicious because that Gap back to the prior Friday’s close that was filled the height of its structure that was proved both held through the close of the test session today yesterday so there really isn’t any excuse or much room or time for any backing and filling if yesterday was a valid break out it should be fairly obvious that should be very obvious going into the noon hour at the latest not creating optimism here behaving more distributive late 153 but hole magnetic attraction to the 134 even if we knew it with complete certainty that this pattern and having ranged nearly and narrowing here for so long some sort of dip attacking if that touching 153 stretching the rubber band so I can snap backup becomes likelier and likelier crude oil not so much of the fullback the likelihood and probably to 6160 105 Natural Gas 306 reliably with 277 outstanding 2605 clearly irrelevant level
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Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2606.00 | 2605.00 |
| …would target | 2610.75 | 2610.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2598.25 | 2597.50 |
| …would target | 2593.00 | 2592.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
After Friday’s close I noted the potential downside of a misstep to the rally at these levels and at this time. What’s a misstep? Monday’s opening surge probed a new high, and didn’t maintain it. Like that.
Sellers exploited the misstep by collapsing 6-1/2 points down to 2597.75. They could have exploited more, and didn’t. That only attacked the overnight low. And an offsetting test of the morning’s 2596.50 bias-down signal (at the overnight low) was outstanding. Not trending down deeper didn’t react up by very much. A very narrow 6-tick range developed around the 2601.75 open since exiting the noon hour.
The week was entered without there being any “unfinished business.” Now there is, and it is below the market. Its test could be neutralized overnight, which may be the only way to retest Sunday night’s low without triggering a top.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.