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Mid-day Update… And then some.
Probing sharply higher highs.
As announced previously, I’m using Friday afternoon’s performance as an input to the WedEX’s influence on Monday morning.
If the indicator is influential this afternoon, then its passively bearish posture would suggest gravitating or trending back down before the close.
Meanwhile, buyer have expended a lot of buying pressure. As was suspected, exceeding the morning’s 2825.25 bias-up target would next target the 2831.00 area. The surge between them was a surprise, and kept alive momentum for the noon hour to extend higher to 2836.50.
This afternoon’s 2831.50 bias-up signal has triggered, putting into play a test of the 2838.25 bias-up target. Having said that, NQ underperformed ES with a lower high, suggesting that institutional hands are shunning speculative issues. Until the pre-1:20 high is exceeded, there’s risk of a deeper dip despite being bias-up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 18, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Only one econ report greets the new week. It’s not much busier Tuesday, so Wednesday’s FOMC events will almost ambush a signal-starved market.
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2826.25 | 2831.50 |
| …would target | 2833.00 | 2838.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2817.75 | 2823.25 |
| …would target | 2812.00 | 2817.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… It’s the level.
Retest of prior high finds sellers again.
The overnight rally up to 2822.00 was recovering a corrective dip during the Market Tour recording. The recovery extended to retest yesterday’s 2825.00 pre-open high up to 2826.00. Hovering there briefly like yesterday’s test soon resolved down sharply, like yesterday’s test.
Unlike yesterday, the pre-open collapse to 2815.50 was recovered to greet the open back at or above the 2818.75 bias-up signal. Which extended back up to 2825.00, within 1 tick of this morning’s bias-up target.
Reacting back down again probed under the 2818.75 bias-up signal, in time to invoke grace period. It triggered late. This is a bias-up environment, targeting 2825.25.
Back under 2818.00 again would be likely at least to fill the gap back down to yesterday’s 2814.00 cash session close equivalent. Meanwhile, resuming the rally to test the bias-up target would be likely also to extend up to the 2831.00 area. But the upside probably depends upon rallying this morning, and not delaying a recovery much longer.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Ignoring the news.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Volatile overnight ranging had ranged up to 2825.00, potentially headed to fresh highs. We’ll never know, because China trade news triggered a collapse through the open down to 2808.50. Bouncing through the morning up to 2821.00 was retraced back down to 2811.00, with the final hour’s recovery effort peaking at 2817.00. “Unfinished business” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2806.25 bias-down target.
Overnight action’s new info…
The late recovery effort to 2817.00 had retraced to 2811.00, where another recovery would be likely if a recovery were valid at all. Trending back up began without delay, reaching 2822.00 by midnight. A 5-point dip into Europe’s opens has been recovered to probe several ticks above the earlier high.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
It was Tuesday’s multiple failures to exceed the 2803.00 area that enabled the overnight dip’s recovery to trend higher Wednesday. Will Thursday’s upside inhibitions resolve similarly Friday? A pre-open rally to 2425.00 was reversed down sharply by China trade news. If that had intended to probe higher otherwise, then Friday should do so — and possibly also compensate for the delay, extending to the 2831.00 area. Otherwise, not triggering bias-up this morning could be the start of drifting lower into the weekend.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2820.75 would be likely to trigger the 2818.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2815.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.