members-only
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2814.00 | 2818.75 |
| …would target | 2820.50 | 2825.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2805.50 | 2810.50 |
| …would target | 2797.50 | 2802.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Would Thursday have probed above 2824.00-2825.00 resistance? China trade news converted an overnight rally into an opening deficit, and the balance of the session was stuck to the new paradigm. Dips to 2808.50 and 2811.00 were recovered back into the range, but never reversed into positive territory — except once up to 2821.00, but only briefly as the morning’s bias environment began lapsing. The afternoon was spent backing and filling.
Dips all recovered into the range. Except for the last one, but it had begun too late to be predictive. Opening Friday firmly enough or already high enough — at least attacking Thursday afternoon’s 2817.00 high — would be likely to retest Wednesday’s 2826.50 high, perhaps higher above 2831.00. Any early fresh high would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply through the afternoon.
Probing lower overnight or post-open would be attracted to Thursday morning’s outstanding 2806.25 bias-down target. Its “unfinished business” requires retest. The likely attraction to “lower prior highs” at 2801.00 is not required, but likely. But its test is likely to hold. Ending the week any lower than that would be bearish, and vulnerable to extending down more sharply.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Trending up Wednesday had filled the outstanding gap and closed above it, expending a lot of energy while “unfinished business” below remained outstanding. Thursday’s open gapped down to the 1.1290-1.1300 support, whose break would target the gap back down to 1.1200.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping overnight greeted Thursday’s open back down at its 1295.50 buy signal. Wednesday’s second consecutive higher close had already required at least an eventual third higher close, which remains likely sooner rather than later. Preferably rallying will avoid any further delay.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s open was greeted back at the 15.27 buy signal which was barely confirmed Wednesday. Probing even lower intraday tested “lower prior highs” at 15.15. The correction day should resolve up without delay if the upside momentum remains intact.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite having held the 146-00 pullback limit Wednesday, extending down overnight threatened to close lower Thursday under 145-16 and to signal the trend reversing down.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already probing above Wednesday’s highs overnight, Thursday’s second consecutive higher close would confirm Wednesday’s breakout and require at least an eventual third higher close.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Reacting favorably to Thursday’s EIA report needs to close above 2.84 and not only test it to signal a rally leg is underway.
Mid-day Update… Bouncing back.
Can’t even keep an overbought market down.
The overnight test of 2825.00 might have been noise testing its resistance, or it might have been on the verge of extending higher. 
Negative China trade news prevented discovering which, as its reaction ultimately extended down to 2808.50 post-open.
Sellers have not been rewarded for their subsequent effort. First, the morning’s 2813.00 bias-down signal triggered, but wasn’t at all productive. Neither was it invalidated, and its 2806.25 bias-down target is “unfinished business” that requires an eventual test.
Also, the morning’s bounce attacked 2821.00 before noon. Its reaction down only touched this afternoon’s 2814.00 bias-down signal triggering no-bias. Being the afternoon, an offsetting test of the bias-up signal is not required.
So, sellers have inhibited or overcome buyers, while missing opportunities to be productive. Back above 2818.25 would start to signal a bigger bounce underway, probably for more topping process. Meanwhile, a pullback as low as 2801.00 could end the pullback and allow a more durable rally to resume.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 15, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Quad Witching expiration usually isn’t smothered in econ reports, but this Friday’s expiration is. The pre-open items are more high-profile than influential to price action, but the two post-open items are both.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET