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members-only – Page 622 – If, Then… Market Timing

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Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 7, 2017

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: Only two econ reports this week are reliably influential to price action. One is Tuesday’s morning’s Jobs Openings report which follows last week’s Employment Situation report.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET

Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET

Afternoon Bias

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 2591.25 2588.00
…would target  2598.00  2595.00
Bias-down: under  2583.50 2580.50
…would target  2577.25 2574.00
Signal status: noN-BIAS,TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

Post-open Review… Isolating sellers.

Complete recovery holds up.

The overnight dip to 2575.50 had recovered to touch Friday’s 2582.75 futures close. The open’s surge soon extended higher to Friday’s 2585.00 cash session close. Also being tested was the 2585.50 bias-up signal’s resistance, and it was meanwhile holding. Lackluster momentum kept the post-open rally vulnerable to reversing down.

But sellers never exploited the hesitation — neither the open’s hesitation, nor the bias signal’s grace period. Another surge broke higher to trigger late bias-up, and now its 2590.50 bias-up target is in-play.

All of which is new highs. And none of must be maintained through the close. A new high close would fulfill the outstanding requirement, but that doesn’t prevent a downdraft. Nevertheless, the rally’s momentum remains intact.

The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Keepin’ it real.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s two recoveries from testing 2563.75 as support had recovered to 2578.00. A relatively small knee-jerk reaction to Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report was quickly erased from 2581.25. Post-open action dipped to 2574.00, holding Thursday’s “lower prior highs” as support. Rallying out of the morning’s bias environment extended through the afternoon’s bias environment to retest Wednesday’s 2585.50 high. The afternoon’s 2586.00 bias-up target was fulfilled to within 3 ticks. A new trend high close was less than optimal as the balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower to 2582.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Volatility didn’t take long to re-appear after the weekend. Saudi purge, Dudley retiring, Paradise Papers, Wilbur Ross – Russia allegations… to name but a few of the weekend’s headlines that Sunday night’s open both reflected and tried to absorb. The open’s nod to all of that was a blip-down to 2580.00 which quickly reacted up to 2584.50. But the weight was more unbearable than that little dip, especially after a headline from China, as a more substantial slide extended down to 2575.50 — which is essentially a 61.8% retracement into the congestion at Friday’s lows. Firming from there attacked 2582.00 into Europe’s opens, forming an Ascending Triangle that is now breaking higher to 2583.00.

If, then…
The overnight dip, having been contained within Friday’s range, is no less noise than was Friday’s rally up to its prior high. And just like Friday’s buyers not gaining new traction, neither has last night’s sellers. Friday’s rally was vulnerable to reversing down because its buying pressure was fulfilled at the afternoon’s bias-up target. Last night’s drop is reacting up from dipping into Friday morning’s range. But that stopped short of structural support like a prior low or lower prior high. Nevertheless, exiting the open in positive territory would be credible for extending higher anyway, at least temporarily probing Friday’s highs, perhaps up to the next higher objective at 2590.50. Otherwise, a retest of the overnight low would be likely, and and Friday’s low would be vulnerable to breaking lower, with room down to 2563.75 before suggesting the trend is reversing down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2583.50would be unlikely to trigger the 2585.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2580.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2578.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2576.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
alright it is Monday November 6th Timeflies this is the Monday Morning Market or it has been an interesting weekend with headlines which I pointed out at last night’s open there’s some geopolitical there’s some fomc physical Paradise papers I don’t know where that goes conspiratorial it’s just coming out of course tragedy in Texas coming at the market from all directions a lot of buying pressure being expended to ignore or absorb opening dip was limited to just a couple points of blip down really from Friday’s Cashing close Futures close was what 83 Cashing close not much different than that just bounced right back and then got a headline from China I was just warning ominously as they do but nothing really durable produce anything substantial or the reaction basically fall under the weight of all this and more 2576 E550 is it on the right back into the consolidation it Fridays open over there then that rally overnight Friday if not for me just really flat to hire a head of the employment situation report Delayed Reaction blip up itself so it’s kind of a 61.8% return it back into Friday’s range even stopped short of that if we generously get rid of ticks we kind of come up with that and then we don’t so little bit shallow on the pool bad but it’s over night so it can be dismissed so long as the intro by exiting the open and positive territory preferably isolating this overnight dip by developing exclusively in positive territory Post open right now at 8252 75 positive so that’s not at all after I definitely had sponsorship apparently stopped optimistically short of not completing itself but doing any real any real retracement it was otherwise just noise and by the way that’s after Friday’s rally member Friday’s rally had stopped right at pretty much Wednesday they started it hadn’t been done already accomplished nothing new to neutralize its attraction so sellers had created upside gravitational pull and so they need to get out of open and positive territory the openings in positive territory to get out of the attraction back down to the overnight low which is an attraction back down to Friday which really isn’t attraction to break under Fridaywe can look fordaddy 50 The Unfinished Business about being tested but failed to recover positive territory through the open there’s the attraction to the overnight low there’s Friday’s low 2574 area which basically is just no bullets reason to retest that unless something can be done through the open get the opening 15 minutes of volatility to test the overnight low and recover it hold it that could be that could establish a floor otherwise you got mad trying to be vague about how deep we could drift there’s room down to 6375 or to attack 6375 without yet reversing the trend down and as we discussed Saturday there’s no reason to touch right act 6375 unless that trend is reversing down so it gets pretty dangerous if the open or the morning hasn’t either or is trying to establish the bottom alright some value for a value range than 25 3850 2586 retest of Friday’s highs it starts running into trouble if it’s tested and also not exceeded again on Friday at relevant resistance failed to close above it leaving the vulnerability to the downside still closing within prior range is plural and there is a probe overnight of fresh Lowe’s trying to open try to isolate that to the overnight nothing changes then that’s the yen I can’t say it doesn’t make sense. To a bottom Breaking Bad on Friday overnight the opportunity to put in and then they still stuck in a Range doesn’t need to be that much more but there’s room up to 7250 73 without yet reversing momentum up and there it is being tested overnight similar set up except that haven’t come back within proximity to it 1650 objective and I haven’t stopped short of filling this new Gap back to 1670 that’s when the eye of the attempt to isolate the wrapping up above its prior High failed no bullet reason at that point to return to the Gap upgetting out of here testing 1650 is thatnegative influences that Olympic gold and prevent its recovery to valid question long Bond really did not take advantage on Friday it’s confirmed break out above 15220 because the confirmation session had fill the Gap without closing above it at 150 314 but it didn’t reject it just fluctuated around it maybe even chipped away at it the proof will be if the rally zooms and resume is above the highs of 15214 prior tests which bases basically 54041 5406 overnight there’s been some extension tu-154 05 right in there I’m going to raise the cell signal because that’s just not decisive enough to prevent the potential to prevent a reversal back down anyway even if only temporarily even if only two it’s not a cell signal yet the nearest so even though buyers are not bringing it at least not on a timely basis and they’re ending the days without having gained traction above resistance it’s being tested it’s still not enough of a pattern to reliably short a head of a pullback it’s just not there crude oil Saudi Arabia geopolitical risk premium ahead of a weekend or just the attraction to the weekend developments in Saudi Arabia the objectives of the inverted Head and Shoulders they got his back to the required 53 from late September from 5 weeks ago that was really it so fluctuating not necessarily doesn’t necessarily mean extending higher but just as testing 5415 Target last week created a very shallow pullback 5388 that is Friday’s close back above 297 there is no unfinished business testing 310 that must be exceeded that’s the 309-2312 area to prove that there is that the trend has reversed up now the Gap back to Friday I want a cell signal in the 309 312 areasubstantialrapper proving hire overnight isn’t necessarily fulfilling buying pressure so as cell signal is less reliable but what we can look at is since another Gap has been created back to Friday’s close its retest becomes likelier to also fill the prior Gap that’s about 293 294 so we’ve got a downside of jective of 293 294 that’s a lot of potential profit if we can have a good ratio to the risk premium it really comes down to this fully test this range test 3 12309 if 312 309 can be tested intraday closing back under 309 would be bearish a little closing that would be otherwise without that form then I wouldn’t be that confident that had been expended and contained all right questions and I’ll see you there before the open good luck today

.

Saturday Review’s recording (for 11/4/17) …Extra effort.

Another new trend high close on a Friday? Not above the 2585.50 prior intraday high as would be preferable. And not above the high’s 2583.50 retracement as would be optimal. Right on the cusp, at or above the high’s 2581.50 open, which is both sufficient and suspicious.

Sufficient to be aware of the likelihood for another new trend high close. Suspicious to take seriously too deep of a reaction down, or the durability of another new trend high close. Touching 2563.75 again would be too deep. Neutralizing the next higher objective at 2590.50 first would merit even more caution for having fulfilled that much more sponsorship.

Whether a protracted shallow range, or a deeper retracement, some sort of correction is likely to develop while it can still be rescued by Thanksgiving’s seasonal bullishness. I explain that concept and those levels, and more, during this weekend’s Saturday Review.

 CLICK HERE TO WATCH

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
TSLA, TRUP, ULTA, BCS, ISRG, TRXC, AAPL, ARNA, AMD, NVDA, MZOR, SBUX

good morning good morning welcome it is Saturday it’s time for Saturday review we didn’t have a Saturday review last weekend we have one this weekend as you can see and then the next couple then it’s Thanksgiving Thanksgiving weekend no Saturday review on a holiday weekend a holiday which is seasonally bullish it’s not so close yet that it is overwhelmingly influential but it is still out there it’s November it’s past the first week of November and so the market does think of things that it might not be so certainly things that are in the back of its mind sometimes working to the frontal lobe or through the cortex now and then but to have the ability to look at the calendar and see just because of the calendar when predominant amount or a portion of the market if not an overwhelming majority of the market just the majority of the market less than a majority of the market if there’s some substantial size of the market that is on the same page looking at this future date coming future date which is seasonally bullish by the way seasonally bullish and looking at the calendar and seeing something like this if your big money and big money not above all else but among all else has not a duty so much as it is not an obligation or Duty so much as a CREDO not to Royal the markets if you want to be a member of big money get along and so you can’t really Royal the markets and so if your big money and you’re looking for a spot not necessarily to get off the merry-go-round but to start handing kid or two to your spouse so you can get off later or maybe because they’ve been on there for long enough that they’re starting to look a little green in the face you might want to give him a little break well you’re going to look at. Like upcoming she’s no strength and know that that’s a good opportunity to start Distributing into it’s not at all the overwhelming rationale or element to the rationale of when to sell but sometimes it can be just enough to make that decision and often it is when there’s seasonal bullishness ahead so point being that still doesn’t prevent pushing price lower or that downward pressure when it’s coming from such a sizable contingent if not an overwhelming majority or even a majority just to have a sizable portion of the market on that same page and so that is silly or probably not immediately but at some point in here as we come into the week not the penultimate week to Thanksgiving week Dupree penultimate week it was a Jeopardy question 2 weeks ago actually the pre penultimate weekgood opportunity to start looking at things to get rid of and we’ve seen some of thatsaying some candidates appear wider held institutional Darlings momentum stocks nifty fifty the names changed through the years but it’s the same thing and so there’s an opportunity for the market to get some sort of a downdraft in and as has been the case and all other downdraft so we’ve been playing at either the vulnerability to or the timing of we’ve only been looking for temporary dips and I’m only looking for at anytime in this pattern at this stage if there is a dip a temporary dip the dips have not been so far when they’ve appeared they haven’t been from either extending very far above the private consolidation and or haven’t dipped very far to facilitate a big correction other words it’s been plenty of money moving in to absorb the distribution so for instance or I should say let’s look at those to just going back to hear almost if we went back and we can look at November and here’s a nice downdraft into November that then gets caught up we haven’t had that here in to November yet so let’s go back to this consolidation and that was a nice corrective lengthy relatively sizeable pull back into a prior range and then a good healthy move up consolidation preliminary breakout retest another big healthy move up and then something interesting happens this is back in April we now have two consolidations in a trend in a trend that have broken higher without retesting lower prioritize pull back doesn’t test lower prioritize pull back doesn’t test lower prioritize so trying to break out gets more difficult over time when sellers aren’t really giving it their all or aren’t being forced to before the market finds enough new buyers or renewed to buyers to take off again and it’s gotten kind of sloppy since then really difficult to get out of here if you turn your monitor I’ll give you a moment to do this grab the monitor with both hands one hand on either side and just kind of tilted a little to this side I wish I could do it or you don’t have to do that but if you did that you would look at this range from February through August or could look at it it’s a channel and this is the point that channels is they really are bases and it doesn’t look readily apparent because this happens to be trending Upward at the same time but if it were shaped like this or angled like this or even angled downward instead of upward you consider that to be a base so a lot of distribution along they’re sort of like a running correction that’s being absorbed anyway from higher and higher Lowe’s that’s optimism stop that optimism is bad optimism is necessary increasing optimism growing optimism is necessary 2 + table and extend a trend and now that optimism is broken higher and what do we see we’re very far removed from that channel again and when that happensone of two things becomes or at least oneI’m going to play one of those is just the hesitation the consolidation before extending higher so here’s an extension higher are we entering consolidation phase were pretty close because 25 9050 is the next higher Target that was put into play by having recovered 2563 75 for two consecutive sessions which we did last Friday Monday and on a second attempt when the prior friday-monday didn’t confirm even held to test 6375 is support after Wednesday’s close Wednesday evening and then Thursday morning to distinct collapses that held and we recovered to 6375 is a lot of attraction to it I probably a little bit off right here but 6375 is a lot of attraction to it but it has been holding as support and it has been rewarding its Defenders with higher and higher highs that are coming into the next test 25 9052 next calculable objective where another dip 225-6375 would tell us where more in. Like this if not like this had getting ready to enter another basing. At the best weather that facing is tilted upwards which I doubt it would be weather that were an extended consolidation just riding us into and out of the new year which is a possibility and unusual possibility historically but this has been a market a bids when there’s a seemingly endless supply of money earmarked toward equities chasing price higher or sitting on reserve ready to move in however natural that may have become or conspiratorial you might want to make it it’s just a reality than that Corrections don’t happen the longest stretch without a name your percent correction and that’s the biggest Factor so either of those scenarios is not out of the realm as being a satisfying a correction so to speak correction not the traditional that we think of when we look at individual equities individual equities correct all the time was the Steep deep downdrafts that eventually a recovered but when you’re dealing with that pretty much one characteristic or single characteristic items like an index where the internal components can do their own big Corrections the Supra characteristic is that the index itself doesn’t have to correct other than through the passage of time holding it through the passage of time non-traditional correction before resuming its rally so that’s also a possibility that we can experience are actually just extended sideways ranges ranges that have the same effect the same effect on RSI indicator most recent data and once you get past earlier than x periods that Dad is irrelevant it’s not part of the copy Tatian some indicators evenly wait all of the data in the set some are front-loaded so that more recent data has a greater effect on the calculationbut once you get past those X. It’s irrelevant and so it’s a waiting game and this can be a correction because older data that had taken the indicator of her butt drops off and without price dipping to a new low the indicator can get oversold so it’s not innocent. That new of a of a feature to the market but it’s maybe a shift or. Where there’s a shift and what kind of Corrections there are so when I speak of Corrections or the risk of Correction or when we look at the vulnerability to Corrections just know that they can play out either in deep down drafts with your grade intraday that’s really all we’re playing there’s always at vulnerability even in the sideways ranges or they can play out and have been playing out more so in terms of stalling waiting for old data to drop off waiting from memories to get better or worse so where are we now we’ve had some interesting setups here consecutive Fridays with new trend High closes new trend High closes on Fridays require there to be an eventual higher close not immediate necessarily not just one necessarily but another higher close just because historically Trends new extreme closes on Fridays and that’s what makes it reliable is that it’s been reliable so going to continue to be as reliable we had for instance new trend High closes almost on the 13th or pretty much but still within prior ranges just above the prior range just close enough to wonder or at least give it a benefit of the doubt with some suspicion and I closes here’s the 20th Friday new trend High clothes didn’t get an immediate I certainly didn’t prevent a big downdraft but we knew in that context there’s a new trend close on a Friday so there’s going to be another new trend I close coming so with that context testing support as a better opportunity to hold 27th new trend eye closed didn’t have to happen but it did and it was above or in a session that was probing above all price ranges so we just have this characteristic of that session that says that strong hands those are committed buyers they had their opportunity to sell and they decided to end the weekend and face the uncertainty of two days of a liquidity with that extra commitment not just buying them up which sometimes in perspective that optimism into the face of adversity can be weak handed and therefore bearish and potentially it is not patience but sometimes the money that needs to get invested is strong enough that it’s on a trend and it turned out to be that case this week as well we assume or we assume at least assume to the degree of giving buyers a benefit of the doubt but a little bit suspicious here because yesterdaythe clothes while it was a new trend High clothesno her clothes since are no clothes that high since last Friday had probes above it but noticed that yesterday’s session didn’t the probe of all prior intraday ranges so in one characteristic of one definition that I use that’s really just noise buyers did not produce anything they had not previously produced other than that new high close but it was within a range that had already been developed not thoroughly developed but not on thoroughly it have been probed overnight as well so there is some suspicion of The Upside momentum that even if we knew it complete certainty that this is in fact a new trend High closed on Friday of the store that requires there to be an eventual subsequent new trend High clothes doesn’t mean that the market is invulnerable to a downdraft anyway we would we would just assume that it’s not because it just did that he just went through a lot to insert this downdraft and the recovery to keep up with this trend that by the way it’s getting more volatile or at least increased its volatility from the narrowness of its ranging over the prior couple of weeks it’s already played a couple weeks ago when it fell 250 which was a relevant level that was actually the pivotal load to the employment situation reports reaction but as we know that’s 2543 that’s being tested a previous dip that been at been recovered and it’s retest just like the employment situation report and its retest of 2543 lighted lighted testing of that and then last week 925 6375 was the next calculable higher resistance and again on the 20th got to close above 6375 to indicate that the next higher objective 25 9050 would be in play based on it being confirmed by not rejecting 6375 the next session the next session closed actually one tick under 6375 enough to give one side or the other benefit of the doubt if you want to but to be suspicious about it so kind of a watch and in fact there was a bigger downdraft but then last Friday 6375 recovered again and on Monday not rejected so that tells us 25 9050 is in play Above was that the last we’ve heard of 2560 375 because Wednesday night after printing a new high at the open and pulling back throughout the day Wednesday night react Wednesday evening reacted to A- Led Balloon trial balloon was floated about the tax reform elements Market didn’t like that it recovered all the way up to a rumor floated that that idea that have been floated the night before wasn’t going to be wasn’t going to be part of the package what do you know and then ahead of the report baggage being introduced another collapse both holding 6375 again 6375 recovery confirmed recovery of Last Friday and Mondaywould take two consecutive close is under 6375 so just dipping down from a new hide it says 6375that is an opportunity to get a lot of sewing pressure out of the way without it reversing the trend down and it had two times to do that overnight and intraday so we’ve got last Friday and Monday two consecutive closes above 6375 in the interim and they’re productive with a new high now there’s testing 6375 the overnight two different timing Windows overnight and intraday could have been to intraday timing windows but clearly when was overnight one Saturday two different timing window 6375 holding at this point there’s no bullish reason ever ever to return to 6375 if something were to happen to drive price back down to 6375 if there was that much sewing pressure even just a flash crash fat finger whatever the market will then want to break eventually under 6375 it’s sooner rather than later. One well someday it’s coming but if ever 6375 were touched again it would immediately be on defense bouncers would be likely to fail meanwhile 25 9050 is in play and when 25 9050 is there will be a new pull back limit based on where that session begins among other bells and whistles so we’re looking for which is also just ahead is the seasonal bullishness not so not so you can imagine that a test of 25 1950 or whatever the next higher objective is in this scenario anytime you see the scenario where there’s a seasonal bullishness around the corner but the block you’re on has that you’re walking on it the time has its objective just a head vulnerability to something like this quickly getting 9050 out of the way and then getting on with another pull back squeezing in a pull back while it can be productive sizeable at least get a lot of selling fresh out of the way without it being destructive that is maintained the uptrend stay away from 6375 675 if touched what did we say about it no bullets reason to return to 6375 the markets on defense if it’s ever touched again guess what else to be Revisited ever again we’ve covered this 2543 6375 or touching 6375 wood for all intents and purposes put 43 into play no reason to touch 6375 that essentially identifies just structurally the last relative low and the last relatively describe happens to have / 43 basically if 6375 probably would be but once you get to 6363 7543and each test is already been productive doesn’t require another bounce number of downside of ject is essentially done that to attack 2500 just in the context of a temporary correction so if a correction is done ahead of the seasonal bullishness that is the non-traditional or coming to be more traditional at least sideways ranging it’s going to have to be from a higher level to avoid touching 6375 under 6375 we get very bearish burden of proof is on buyers they could have zorbit there’s still some lower prioritizing here 53 if that could be done in a in a timing window that is irrelevant like isolated to the overnight or narrow it nearly engagement during the open and recover it that’s one and probably the only way to to negotiate a break of 6375 without the air pocket but otherwise shallower than 6375 pull back which is difficult to see happening from within the range 6375 already been tested and retested and return to the high if it’s tested again it’s probably gone so probably need to get it done from a position of strength from closing above prioritize leave a gap up outstanding for instance that needs to be filled From Below take a lot of time getting it done that may be the boys scenario is to get get some Gap up outstanding question another pullback is also only if it avoids 6375 6375 is touched especially from prior to or without being hired in 1950 it’s probably done so if we have a high degree of confidence in 1950 being touched then right now we have to have a high degree of confidence if we have a high degree of confidence in 2590 50 being touched and if we have a high degree of confidence in 6375 touch being bearish then we have a high degree of confidence that while waiting for 2590 50/60 375 won’t be touched because touching 2563 75 makes 9050 unlikely and more difficult because that’s where the unlikely comes from so shallower than 6375 from here 20 points down for 10 points maybe 10 overshadowed by the reliability greater reliability 9050 before 6375 that have immediately conserved energy or fuel with pullbacks their different characteristics to the fullbacks is that a pattern for the market to get it in before the weekend and trench the rallyand then immediately start the week trapping shorts to help fuel a recovery into the weekend possibly so whenever we see something happentimes because the odds are always against that that is similar setups happens happening sequentially out of the resolutions are going to be very different or there’s a pattern so if there’s a pattern here then we would expect another immediate downdraft but it has has to be shallower so basically we start developing something like this that’s perfectly valid to use this as a guideline not necessarily predictive and back noticed that overnight here for instance is a touch and a touch that doesn’t completely pull back so it’s not a not an actual Rising wedge overnight things can get a little different but still for the purpose of support for to see that the pullbacks are getting shallower optimism is getting stronger and patience is growing that’s where accidents happen in Austin that pattern or that type of pattern will resolve by almost literally exploding higher capitulation not necessarily in shorts covering short short squeeze like stuff but I consider short squeezes to happen down here on pullbacks at the end of so else but more so money on the sidelines just coming in barreling in because it reaches a Breaking Point and then we’re all out of buyers but it doesn’t have to be very substantial to almost literally explode higher and it doesn’t have to be maintained through a closed just not the extreme explosion just to get that out of the way let’s look at other markets please go ahead and start posting them or any other questions and q’s came back with a vengeance after being a big underperformer while the Dow slowing its Pace but still higher can’t call that diversion Sia and a control group vs speaking hire as well so pretty much all three or another reason why I wouldn’t expect either or would be happy to buy an immediate full-back and as we know from our calculations would want to buy that pullback shallow as opposed to Deep alright there’s another sucks I want to update let’s do and if you ever Quest go and post them Tesla’s on my list to let’s start with that so Tesla has had an opportunity to Rally for some time requirement there’s some resistance up here that was saved by uptrending support pivotal of trending support very sloppy when it finally returned back to the high 389 61barely above the only thing that was required wascalculability there is higher potential is structurally the rally or recovery could be maintained structurally it was not maintained and started chipping away at support in 343 area that was that was that was absorbed for at least a corrective bounce in fact I had a and still have this is the same but this is the same calculable resistance 358 it had originally required a retest of the eye pretty decent holding his resistance but it was it was touching up or pierced enough to question or suspect the original break until 3:43 but reiterating the 3:43 break has been very productive back down to the prior low and back down now this week the next to 9275 this is a bigger break than this this is a bigger break then stopping by but at the very first opportunity beginning a down trip not just immediate downtrend really had some thoughtfulness to it broke lower we’ve always had the same potential downside on a break and that is to 263 262 263 calculator I hate to put it out to pasture just because it’s finally breaking you read the news stories and you just really want to give sellers every benefit of the doubt the tax credit potentially going away model 3 Productions down or production is down orders being cancelled so here’s one of those that I was referring to that has already started showing signs of distribution and you can just imagine it doesn’t have to happen to the broad Flat Line while a handful of stocks like this are distributed the heck out of and if there’s family in the room distribution is then rotated into other other new Darlings up-and-coming Darlings prior to extending down then there’s potential to fill that neutralize its attraction before resuming the decline the thing is that would also indicate that the sustainability so would stop looking for just 263 but yeah there’s there’s always going to be the potential for that is this break lower by the way I don’t know if you seen those headlines or a Tesla crash on that on news that the tax credit was not part of the tax reform package that it was sending it was part of the package this isn’t really a crash so it’s not really a crash the week of September 18thyou’re getting bearish pessimistic so that’s an opportunity from a perspective for a bottom so Tesla wants you know it’s just one rumor away from no they decided to put the tax credit back in you know right away you see a headline like that look at what a headline like that did Wednesday evening is that in there Wednesday evening just a headline about the tax reform plank that was contradicted before the open so if they can do that to the index you bet that can happen to Tesla if somehow a river is flooded I’m not saying there will be when I don’t do it but that’s the point is this is an island like pattern and gapping up back above 3:15 only temporarily but that refueling suddenly gets past 3:20 past that Gap and actually were traces potentially the 343 so there is upside potential on the way down t r u p trupanion and I’ll do two from everyone and then Circle back around as they are outstanding and I’ve got a few to update as well apparently at or at least resistance I don’t know that we were identifying this ahead of time or just identified it that was a big resistance being met but it definitely was influential it held the lower quadrant of this running correction and then resume the rally to its next tired of jective at basically 3995 that the pattern it stops short pessimistically short the next hour of jective and then compensating for the delay it’s exploding higher yeah and it’s got the measurements makes sense exactly 3492 long as 2873 now holds support at 2873 so long as that holds the support on Monday to confirm 3489 n Play downtrend that’s just a huge pattern here complex ascending triangle basically complex because it develops away from the high which is often often productive of a substantial so looks like the downside is still intact it’s responsive to a lot of these pivotal points turning points so I can’t say it’s a straight shot down but at this point there’s potential for a balance to 219 to test 219the break of the 187 60 and the next large active around 160 is in play or confirm to still be in play Barclays so we’ve been tracking this pull-back that has potential down to 9:15 really anything into the 915 984 area 95 area but preferably 9:15 and now more so 9:15 because this dip under 985 that was responsive has failed so I really have to give it the benefit of the doubt that it’s not going to recover before testing 9:15 and unfortunately because there was an opportunity to cut short the pull back all the way to 9:15 all the way to lower prioritize that buyers did come in and try already and didn’t close above 1075 to circumvent the deeper pull back before recovering because they tried and clearly failed now. Only is 915 likely to be tested but less likely to hold that test so it’s perfectly valid in this pattern to identify downtrending resistance just to get a basically Channel like Channel like look someone supportive but mostly resistant so get out before 9:15 before testing it before breaking it closes under it break above its down training resistance will give that every benefit of the doubt especially after 9:15 is tested if it is closed 915 can be tested 5855 and still have potential to recover but once a 5852 is broken it’s presumed to be gone intuitive surgical just keeps getting higher what was that for the first time in years had its own robotic surgical technology approved by the FDA which intuitive had a nice big bounce and then the next week or two so just to be aware of that which by the way about 3:34 would be pretty attractive 3:30 for 3:35 be aware that if your intuitive the impact of might have to start touting that they’re able to eat into intuitive’s Market still standing throw stones at their credibility and volume is suspicious or at least leaves a lot to be desired here probing higher we can raise the signalsignal to 355 70 but meanwhile look for to potential hire Targets near term Resistance 3 92-70 probably on the way to 422 Plus any level to pull back it’s tough it’s tough to buy pullbacks or that strategy perfectly valid strategy especially when a stock is making new highs higher and higher highs because at the very least you can often rely on at least three testing that high which really mitigate the risk however it’s tough to employee that strategy or have confidence in that strategy when volume isn’t expanding into that hire High you know here’s a higher high on volume I would have liked to buy that pull back of course it’s a catch-22 because that kind of volume into the higher high off and just extensions you know here’s one higher high on volume there’s a pull back into lower prioritize so the point being that it’s a good strategy it’s a good idea and even if we do with complete certainty which we probably do know as much as possible and certainly as possible in stocks when it comes to stocks which is to say not at all because because because that guy is being made or created on Contracting volume it is more susceptible now to a deeper downdraft so because of that I’d want to buy a deeper pull back as opposed to a shower pull back at least and that gets us pretty much back down all the way almost to 3:55 so something in this range here’s some lower prioritize call 360-3363 presented itself invite be compelling at the time I truly want to look at it but it might be an order out there with a stop not too far below alright any others go ahead and post them update on Apple which is been a big pic for a short when they were announcing iPhone 8 which as we talked about at the time and we going to talk about again there tends to be peeking into their new products in fact identified the presentation went astray or I actually we had three actual cell signals or setups the objective and I think the really played out that iPhone 8 sales were going to be hindered by people waiting for iPhone 10 and that as soon as all the problems with iPhone 8 including a battery blowing up as they tend to do and apples the new ones Etc as soon as the market reflected those problems attention could be turn to and would be steered to the iPhone 10 and that’s really played out on that was just and then some so that the actual pullback could come from a position of strength absorbed and then the next the ultimate Target actually at 1 73617 375 is meth that’s met on expanding volume so we can’t look at that as a peek not yet not without some sort ofcomplexity up here since distribution I just want to point out that was the upside potential and once againallow a new product not announcement but actual release we have potential for Peak and fousey azzam so I don’t have a cell signal here I made just as I didn’t have a cell signal here you have to see complexity you have to see the distribution develop and then you can identify for instance the corrective limits and the pull back the same thing here even if we do with complete certainty that this is the high is the predictability of that set up that we’ve been tracking I’m going to favorite pic in the basically in the Cannabis sector because it’s one that suddenly came on the scene of the reverse split as being available to institutions that are otherwise prohibited from entering stocks under $5 medical sector that grape pattern this is back when we started getting excited about it so it’s doubled from there I don’t see volume expanding and that’s been my big issue now volume isn’t really expanding is maybe getting sporadically heavier but not enough I’ve got to be concerned with that so just looking for a spot to start paying back that’s about the 29 area I think it makes sense until they unless they implode on bad study makes sense to maintain exposure to some degree but as far as that big ride or any of the Princeton’s pullback having held other inflection point recovered when volume isn’t coming along with the story there’s a couple weeks ago there was even a pre-open surge and then and then the broader Market had a problem that was ahead of the 19th yeah the morning of the 19th October 19th when were having an issue Omar’s to October 1987 presentations coming the market responded pretty well to it expect to see some sort of retest of those extremes so this is the area I want to consider actually pretty reliable but Kathy Woodley were into that area cuz that was a pretty good looking until it wasn’t volume established tested volume but still in proximity to the Sun that’s a big supportpreviouslyI understand what’s behind this break but it did come from a position of strength not as much strength as having taken out the inflection point originally without having to refuel again but it has left the Gap outstanding another one now it’s a Line in the Sand says to me 10 and 5/8 1063 is basically maximum pull back in the context of a rally is going to recover its going to recover from here and not from any lower in other words that’s essentially the the assumption but if this isn’t enough to clean out sellers than buyers aren’t coming back sellers are going to be much more rewarded much better rewarded back under the interim low Big Town trip in other words so this is just a temporary correction this is the deepest that it should be able to get through this week maybe that’s still recovers anyway but essentially if 1063 doesn’t Define the lower end of this the low of this pull back then there’s substantially lower lows coming in the context of a bigger Trend reversal regardless of what unfinished business might be left at standing otherwise this is got to be the cheapest possible so that there won’t be another gap down in fact that there’s going to be another gap down this is a good spot for it to happen that’s what inflections are or can be but that’s pretty much the cheapest it should get the potential being that it’s going to resume the upside it’s really miss the opportunity for that can help but it’s done without it damagingokay so there is resistance right in here 210 pull back limit is 200 200 gives way it probably pulls back deeper to 175 to pull back on a 200 under 200 deeper pull back under way to 175 otherwise stay away from 200 or hold its test through a closed and next time of jective is 235 area what day is earnings if earnings are on Monday then it’s Friday’s close that matters and I can’t really say that sincerely a position of strength there is none like that yes not that it matters it didn’t even return to Wednesday’s High it is a new high closed but within the range and has only traced he arrived 220-870-5209 pretty big deal to get out of a extend the rally at all but whatever to look at it the day before and I’ll be able to tell you whether it’s reading it from a position of strength if it’s not Monday alright one more to update we had to injectors on this this wasn’t my idea but when it was presented it was the best-looking we had that way with two upside objectives 5876 and 6456 both have been influential by the way but the story of that pattern is done and now needs to be renewed by closing of 6363 and rally is extending but just to point out that that leg is done unfortunately when you don’t have gas in the tank left behind huge consolidation reaction down all the way at least it’s done for a long time for a long time you looking for mid forties at that point Thursday afternoon the post close reaction to earnings that’s a substantial the intro reaction relatively speakingthat’s not a lot and so I would consider selling that 57 3558 for retest of the initial reactions low which was 51 and potentially probably a much bigger top for me that is it for me I hope I got everything and let me know if not jump it here during the week if anything you’re in is needing update be well thanks for being here on a Saturday morning we will be open tomorrow evening at the Globex open if I don’t see that I’ll see you Monday morning have a great weekend everyone take care