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Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2506.75 | 2505.00 |
| …would target | 2512.75 | 2511.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2499.75 | 2498.00 |
| …would target | 2494.75 | 2493.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Back at square-one. Perhaps not precisely, or numerically, But essentially. Thursday’s post-open plunge did manage to create a new objective below that remains outstanding. But its 2493.25 bias-down target would have been fulfilled by retesting oversold RSIs at Wednesday’s 2494.00 low. Essentially the same.
Any recent indications of a potential top would all but evaporate if the week ends in a new trend high close. That setup would entrench the rally, and the two setups should not coincide. Hovering just under the rally’s highs into the weekend isn’t very top-ish, either. So, a valid top may enter the weekend already in decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction ultimately extended down to 1.1917, completing a 61.8% retracement of the recent rally. The rally’s complete retracement to at least test it 1.1745 low is likely, while bounces hold 1.2025-1.2040.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Greeting Wednesday’s FOMC from under 1318.50 wasn’t a position of strength. The reaction plunged to fresh lows that extended lower overnight and Thursday morning to 1291.20. Bounces should hold 1302.50 while the decline extends to test 1288.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Hovering under the 17.30 buy signal Tuesday reacted down sharply to Wednesday’s FOMC, testing 17.00 support Thursday down to 16.88. Bounces should hold 17.30 before a bottom can form.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s attack on 153-14 support reacted up Thursday to test 154-16. The bounce had room up to 154-30 but reacted back down to unchanged. A retest of Wednesday’s low is likely signal before signaling the trend reversing back up, but also likely to hold.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s failed probe of last week’s high extended down only slightly overnight, and ranged narrowly Thursday. Closing under 50.00 would be the first step to reversing the trend down. But any new high close above 51.00 would signal the rally is extending.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The pullback’s room down to 3.02 was tested soon after Thursday’s 3.07 open. The reaction to EIA extended down to 2.95. This seriously undermines the ongoing bottoming pattern, or at least its near-term potential to avoid a deeper drop to 2.84.
Mid-day Update… Still ranging.
Open’s dip retraces. Somewhat.
It’s not at all surprising that today’s lower-volume session remains range bound. It’s impressive that this morning triggered bias-down, and that post-open action trended aggressively. But the 2493.25 bias-down target remains outstanding. And the aggressive trending was due more to thin volume than to wide participation.
That latter point is why so much of the post-open drop was retraced into the morning’s bias environment exit. But the noon hour mostly ranged narrowly. A blip-down tried to trigger a sell signal under 2501.00, but only by 1-2 ticks before recovering to its 2503.00 origin.
This afternoon is now triggering no-bias, not even threatening either bias signal. There is no active sponsorship for trending either way, but beware of any knee-jerk reaction to news headlnies.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 22, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Three Fed speakers appear throughout Friday, amid at least one reliably influential post-open econ report.
John Williams Speaks
6:00 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks
9:30 AM ET
*PMI Composite Flash
9:45 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Expectations
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
1:30 PM ET