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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Delayed detonation.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s 5-8 point gap up wouldn’t suffice to make the session bullish. The open immediately tested Tuesday’s 2465.00 prior high, and extending through it would have made the session bullish. But the resistance held, including a test of the 2466.75 bias-up target. Reacting down to 2458.25 was recovered to fresh afternoon highs at 2469.00. But that was all but doomed to failure since fresh highs didn’t extend when the bias environment began lapsing. Then the close slipped back under the morning’s high to 2465.00, which further undermined buyers, who were already labeled weak-handed by an “inside day” that was biased-upward.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s last dip had triggered a sell signal under 2565.50 that targeted a fresh session low had it been triggered earlier. Globex opened with an 8-point spike down to 2457.50, a 50% retracement of the rally from Tuesday’s low, immediately fulfilling the sell signal’s objective of probing under Wednesday’s low. It also immediately settled around 2461.00-2460.00, and then extended back up to 2464.50. Europe’s opens was greeted back down at 2461.00-2460.00, which also recovered — this time back into positive territory at 2467.25 ahead of the ECB statement.
If, then…
Gapping up Thursday could have served by proxy as if Wednesday’s close were stronger, the product of reinforcements, albeit late. Gapping down sufficiently could have had a similar effect, for inverse reasons — adjusting price to a level that would attract strong-handed buyers. The latter scenario is less likely since that recovery has already expended its energy, so opening weakness would now be likelier to extend down. Gapping up is similarly hindered by the latest leg prior to the ECB statement. Gapping up would still get a benefit of the doubt, but reversing it or simply opening weaker may spend the morning drifting back down to overnight lows.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 back under 2459.00 would be likely to trigger the 2461.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2462.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2466.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2469.00 bias-up signal.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s morning market tour little housekeeping look for instructions today regarding this Dobby product notification they’re doing some sort of an upgrade to their ad on and I’ll have instructions in a blog post try to make that pretty visible otherwise we started a philosophical question and are actually from Tuesday’s low you can see to the spike low that was a 50% retracement the central aid from yesterday’s high so some natural support their it’s not the greatest support I would have preferred to be buying this morning or having the opportunity to buy 6180 or Trey Smith especially after having bounced off the 50% dipping to the 6180 retracement 5450 would have been a lot more attractive you know today because because yesterday buyers didn’t gain traction for the reference today gapping up above yesterday’s I would have indicated reinforcements arrived strong handed reinforcements that’s one way to overcome buyers not gaining Traction in their rally effort another way to overcome buyers not gaining Traction in the rally effort is to take price down to where stronger handed buyers would be interested that would have been 5450 so it’s tough to get bullish here no we do have this morning and it’s got to be inhibiting so that’s about to be announced and then there’s the Mario draghi press conference so what we’re looking at here red put in a play the next hour so dragons at cetera and certainly being tested here I had a b c d Looney’s impossible pattern to justify stepping in front of other than for sale retracement back down to lower prioritize given that opportunity to buy a test of to of Monday size 8179 I would certainly be interested in doing that and of course the Euro which completed a correction the measurements previously let me know if you need to see them again it’s been somewhat of coiling back up to it that these are inside days that are there not terribly by step word which is why we don’t regard them as buyers being weak handed in other words buyers producing intraday uptrend but not getting anywhere for the effort because they’re inside days you know I guess they for instance that trended down if anything so there’s still skepticism in here if not at least restrained optimism and that doesn’t necessarily so much as their not being any downside requirement so really at this point that’s going to get it labeled anything above basically 11971 1965 is likely to retest last week size overnight on that has yet to be repeated but it’s likely to be repeated actually so long as the support silver holding 1790 again and again and again that was the target of the rally which was leapfrogged over hasn’t been rejected and so it’s formed a congestion it’s likely to bring price back up to in case of a negative reaction which job at this point we’re price is right before so long as it’s not overly optimistic it is essentially a position of strength that can at least or would at least be likely to absorb a reaction dad especially so long as it holds 295 and that’s what makes 295 exit 94 95 likely to hold if tested because any lower would be more bearish .
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2469.75 | 2469.00 |
| …would target | 2475.25 | 2474.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2461.50 | 2461.00 |
| …would target | 2454.75 | 2454.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s “inside day” was biased-upward, which often means that its buyers are weak-handed. They can still be productive, if only temporarily. But their rallies aren’t likely to gain traction.
Wednesday’s rally didn’t gain traction. The open’s test of 2466.75 resistance — the morning’s bias-up target — was probed in the afternoon, but held through the close. So, buyers accomplished little.
Gapping up Thursday and extending higher could serve by proxy as if Wednesday’s close were stronger. The ECB meeting is not an inappropriate catalyst. Catalysts can cut either way, and a negative reaction would be likelier to trend down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s range held up ahead of Thursday’s ECB policy statement and Mario Draghi press conference to come. They’re being greeted from a position of strength, to the extent that this week’s price action has been restrained optimism. It’s not enough to prevent a reaction down, but should enable a recovery.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Attacking 1350.00 later Tuesday was retraced down to the 1337.50 sell signal. Its test held, keeping alive potential to retest 1350.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s intraday attack on 18.10 didn’t extend any higher overnight. Its reaction down Wednesday held support at what had been the rally’s 17.90 target.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Without any “unfinished business above” Tuesday’s 157-04 high, Wednesday tried probing higher to 157-12. Its reaction down probed back under last week highs and the new 156-24 sell signal.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s gap up extended intraday to test 49.40. Pullbacks must now hold 47.95 to maintain the upside momentum. Closing under 47.95 — especially Thursday, which includes the week’s delayed EIA report — would be likely to retest recent lows very rapidly.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s dip back down to the 2.98 buy signal was recovered Wednesday to test the new 3.02 buy signal, which held. But Thursday’s EIA report is still being greeted from a position of strength, having confirmed last Thursday’s breakout with at least an eventual third higher close outstanding.
Mid-day Update… Holding up, not breaking out.
Hovering at pre-open highs.
This morning’s bias-up environment was triggered after having tested its 2466.75 bias-up target. 
Reacting down only attacked its 2461.00 bias-up signal by 10:30. It was probed under 2459.00 — twice. But it was too late to trend down, since the bias-up signal must define the bias-up environment’s lower-end. So, 2461.00 was recovered while the bias environment lapsed.
And the recovery extended through the noon hour, attacking the morning’s highs. But this afternoon’s bias parameter triggered noN-bias. The 2465.50 bias-up signal was still being overlapped at both 1:20 AND 1:30. This is not a bias-up environment with a bias-up target in-play, or a no-bias environment required to hold the bias-up signal.
Having said that, noN-bias environments often behave like no-bias and hold the bias signal. More so, hovering at the bias signal often breaks through it when the bias environment begins lapsing. But dipping back under 2463.50 would start to signal a retest of this morning’s lows underway.