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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Resolving up through Thursday’s ECB events helped to confirm that Friday’s reaction down did hold its corrective limits, so that a new upleg is now underway.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The holiday weekend’s attack on 1350.00 was likely to be retested, which the reaction to Thursday’s ECB events accomplished up to 1355.50. Closing back under Sunday night’s 1339.50 open or its 1337.50 low would signal the trend reversing back down.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs testing 18.20 Thursday morning fulfilled any requirement for retesting the week’s earlier overnight highs. Having originated from a dip to 17.90 support, a second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm a very strong breakout.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s break under 157-24 didn’t extend any deeper to its pullback objective under 156-00 before recovering the sell signal and probing new recovery highs attacking 158-00. Another dip under 157-24 (if not also under 157-16) would be bearish, but the trend otherwise remains up.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s delayed EIA report didn’t trigger much volatility, as Tuesday’s confirmed breakout was maintained, still having room for a pullback down to 48.00 or even to “lower prior highs” at 47.25 without targeting new lows.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 3.02 buy signal continued being tested both into and out of Thursday’s EIA report. It didn’t trigger, as Thursday dipped to fill the gap back to Wednesday’s close and neutralize its attraction below.
Mid-day Update… The market IS the other shoe.
Bouncing back down to session lows.
This morning’s 9-point drop to 2460.00 avoided both triggering bias-down and rejecting it. Its noN-bias environment’s sharp 7-point was impressive, but also retraced entirely. The noon hour’s retest of the morning’s low attacked this afternoon’s 2459.25 bias-down signal to within 1 tick. And also failed to trigger.
But this is a no-bias environment. If tested, 2459.25 should define the window’s lower-end. But not after the bias environment begins lapsing, or even comes within view. Hovering near the lows under 2464.00 would keep selling pressure well-positioned to easily unload into the close. No news would be needed — just the overnight and morning recovery attempts being abandoned.
Otherwise, back above 2466.00 would start to signal that the overnight and post-open drops had been absorbed. A retest of last Friday’s range above would be targeted. Trading out the session within its current range isn’t likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 8, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: A lot of Fed speakers will have spoken the night prior to Friday morning’s speaker. And that will be the most reliable opportunity to influence price action.
William Dudley Speaks
Thu 7:00 PM ET
Raphael Bostic Speaks
Thu 7:00 PM ET
Esther George Speaks
Thu 8:15 PM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
8:45 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2466.50 | 2466.00 |
| …would target | 2472.25 | 2472.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2459.50 | 2459.25 |
| …would target | 2454.00 | 2453.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Stopping short.
Pre-open recovery loses sponsorship.
Rallying through the ECB events continued ignoring the Globex open’s spike down. The open was greeted 1 tick short of this morning’s 2469.00 bias-up signal, 
and short of yesterday’s highs. As was suspected, buyers were already expended from the overnight recovery, so that’s as good as it got.
The first reaction down corrected almost entirely. The second reaction down slid to 2460.00-2461.00. The bias-down signal was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Its test was repeated at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias.
RSIs had improved to the point of diverging positively. That didn’t require a bounce, but it bounced. The open is being attacked up to 2467.25. That’s not far from the 2469.00 bias-up signal, despite the noN-bias signal not requiring an offsetting test.
Exiting the bias environment back under 2464.00 would start to signal the bounce was only a temporary correction. Fresh session lows and probably also a new downleg would be likely. Otherwise, entering the noon hour above 2469.00 would be credible for filling the gap back up to Friday’s 2474.00 cash session close.