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Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2448.25 | 2447.25 |
| …would target | 2454.25 | 2453.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2440.50 | 2439.75 |
| …would target | 2435.00 | 2434.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday afternoon’s 2447.75 bias-up signal defined the no-bias environment’s upper-end. Touching it held through the window lapsing. The ECB’s Draghi started speaking and shook price loose. A blip-up to 2449.50 stretched the rubber band to snap back down into the close. Dropping to 2441.50 actually went out testing 2443.00, avoiding any signal.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Join us this weekend for the Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET. Your link will arrive by email in the morning.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday extended higher through the morning to test 1.1900. A bigger rally to fresh highs at 1.1915 and potentially 1.1970 is now likely underway, albeit still vulnerable to reversing back down to the recent lows.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A wild Friday morning first spiked up, then plunged to a fresh low under 1284.00, and spiked back up again to 1298.00. Extending higher Monday would be credible for retesting the high and higher. Otherwise, launching a downleg has little excuse for further delay.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Another probe under 16.90 was triggered among Jackson Hole headlines. It originated from an early morning bounce above 17.05, and recovered back to it after testing 16.70. This gives the pattern an opportunity to rally if Monday were to extend higher, but without delay since 17.05 still isn’t recovered.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s initial dip held just under 156-00 before snapping back up to fresh highs at 156-24. Having failed to confirm Wednesday’s breakout, closing higher Friday would signal a much larger rally leg underway.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing Friday morning back up to the 47.95 sell signal still keeps alive the potential for resolving down, but also limits the time available to sellers for retaking control.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s failed bounce above 2.95 had warned already that another downleg was forming, especially having failed to exploit the otherwise bullish influence of the Guld of Mexico hurricane bearing down. Friday’s dip back down under 2.91 and lower puts into play 2.81 where a better bottom can still form..
Mid-day Update… Waiting for the other shoe.
Morning rally rejected.
Not yet extending the gap up during the opening 15 minutes wouldn’t prevent extending it anyway. It would only doom the extension to failure.
Which is what happened when gapping up to 2446.50 was only maintained, through 9:45, before surging to 2453.50. The bias environment lapsing at 11:30 was probing under the open’s print down to 2441.00.
Bouncing through the noon hour came within 1 tick of this afternoon’s 2447.75 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment. It has room down to the 2441.50 bias-down signal. Or, hovering at or just under the bias-up signal could still break higher later.
ECB’s Mario Draghi speaks at 3:00. He’s a reliable catalyst for injecting volatility into the market. Greeting his remarks from back under 2443.00-2444.25 would be likely to extend down into the weekend. Otherwise, a similarly favorable reaction would be likely from above 2448.50.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Aug 28, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Monday’s econ reports have a track record for influencing price action. The Fed survey may be higher profile, but only because of the dearth of other reports.
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET