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Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 8, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monthly payrolls doesn’t usually share its announcement time, let alone the spotlight, with another econ report. Often it’s the day’s only report. Friday’s other pre-open report is more high-profile than it is influential to price action, so that’s probably not relevant. The morning’s Fed speaker may be more closely watched in case of there having been a significant market reaction.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
*Mary Daly Speaks
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2758.00 | 2758.00 |
| …would target | 2766.50 | 2766.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2747.75 | 2747.75 |
| …would target | 2739.25 | 2739.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL — COVERAGE ROLLS FORWARD TO JUN AT THE CLOSE | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Coming, or going?
Next lower objective quickly met.
I described during the pre-open Market Tour that an attempt to isolate the overnight lower lows would likely fail. 
At least, anything short of recovering 2777.00. I also noted my expectation for the market to once again respond choppily if not poorly to ECB Chair Draghi’s press conference.
So, the ECB policy statement reaction allowed me to label a resistance for fading at 2774.00. Its test held, but a blip-up to 2776.25 quickly resolved down sharply. The open was greeted back under the 2769.00 bias-down signal at 2765.50, in the process of collapsing down to 2745.25. It was eventually probed down to 2741.75.
Failing to hold 2777.00 yesterday had dictated the next lower objective in-play at 2753.50. It’s now being tested as resistance. There’s potential for a bigger corrective bounce, but only a corrective bounce. Back under 2747.25 and 2744.75 would signal the decline had resumed with its next objective being 2733.75, and potentially 2715.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Digging deeper.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s brief probe under its intraday low down to 2781.50 had been recovered pre-open to test Tuesday’s 2789.00-2792.00 close. But already slipping back into negative territory through Wednesday’s open extended down through the morning and noon hour. The afternoon bias environment was greeted sharply lower at 2769.50. Its 9-point bounce gained no traction (remaining within the noon hour’s range and entering the final hour within the bias environment’s range). That resolved down to probe fresh lows down to 2768.50. Its reaction up was shallower, barely attacking 2777.00 instead of recovering it before settling back at session lows.
Overnight action’s new info…
The intraday decline resumed without hesitation and quickly met 2765.50. A bounce resolved down into Europe’s opens at 2761.50, the lowest levels in three weeks. “Lower prior highs” were barely touched, launching a bounce that is now testing 2766.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
There was no bullish reason to revisit 2777.00 again. Closing under it yesterday confirms the next lower objective in-play at 2753.50. Not necessarily in a straight line, which we’ll learn more about if the overnight test of three-week old lows either holds itself, or repeats their test intraday. Isolating the overnight probe of fresh lows could be bullish, but very suspicious without greeting the open above 2777.00. At least. Meanwhile, any isolation attempt would be vulnerable to reversing back down and extending.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2766.75 would be likely to trigger the 2769.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2761.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2763.75 bias-down target at 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal, essentially next targeting 2753.50.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2779.00 | 2779.00 |
| …would target | 2785.00 | 2785.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2768.75 | 2769.00 |
| …would target | 2763.50 | 2763.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.