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Market Wrap (recording & summary)
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Tuesday night’s brief probe under the intraday low down to 2781.50 had been recovered pre-open to test Tuesday’s 2789.00-2792.00 close. Slipping back into negative territory at the open extended down to greet the afternoon bias environment at 2769.50. A 9-point bounce gained no traction, remaining within the noon hour’s range and entering the final hour within the bias environment’s range. Probing fresh lows down to 2768.50 also reacted up, but shallower, barely attacking 2777.00 instead of recovering it.
There was no bullish reason to revisit 2777.00 again. Closing under it maintains the door opened intraday to the next lower objective at 2753.50. No hold-short or hold-long setup could be contemplated at the close, and gapping up Thursday can’t form a session-long rally. Simply gapping up and rallying anyway would leave “unfinished business” below. Somehow isolating an overnight probe of fresh lows could be bullish, but meanwhile would be vulnerable to extending down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s fresh low was early and recovered quickly back into the prior session’s range, keeping alive the 1.1350 buy signal if triggered through a close.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow hovering at recent lows for a third consecutive session without yet trying to bounce now makes at least some probe of a fresh low likely before a recovery attempt can be credible.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still hovering at recent lows for a third consecutive session now makes a dip to 15.00 likely before reversing up would be credible for gaining traction.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already recovering above Monday’s high on Tuesday had created potential for testing 145-05, which was attacked to within 1 tick Wednesday. A second consecutive higher close on Thursday would greet Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength. Otherwise, an intraday retest of Sunday night’s 143-17 low would be likely.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
One-week old uptrending support was already being overlapped before Wednesday’s open, and persisted intraday. Almost any initial strength Thursday or even overnight would be credible for at least retesting the 57.00 buy signal, which at this stage of the pattern should resolve in a breakout.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Piercing 2.89 overnight and pre-open still didn’t extend higher intraday, continuing to suggest caution of a deeper pullback which would be credible for extending down. But at least Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of weakness.
Mid-day Update… The door is open.
Relevant support break maintained.
This morning’s 2777.25 bias-down target was probed by 2 points.
Its reaction up to 2784.25 was reversed back down through 2777.25 as the bias environment lapsed. And despite holding a test of this afternoon’s 2771.00 bias-down signal to trigger noN-bias, the break under 2777.25 was maintained.
The door is now open to extending the decline down to its next objective at 2753.50.
There was no bullish reason to have revisited 2777.25 last week, nor to repeat its test today. Isolating its test now requires closing back above a prior relative high, which at this point in the pattern is essentially 2784.25.
Meanwhile, the pattern is more vulnerable to resuming and extending the decline, without any requirement to await the bias window lapsing, since this is a noN-bias environment.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 7, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday morning’s ECB policy statement will likely be influential. And the more controversial it is, the likelier that price action will be influenced wildly by the later Draghi press conference. Meanwhile, two jobs related reports prep the market for Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*ECB policy statement / Draghi Q&A
7:45 AM / 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2780.50 | 2780.50 |
| …would target | 2786.00 | 2786.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2770.75 | 2771.00 |
| …would target | 2763.25 | 2763.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.