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Post-open Review… On the precipice.
Bias-down target’s test is a decision-point.
Stretching the overnight recovery from 2781.50 up to 2792.75 didn’t ensure a post-open recovery. 
In fact, reversing down greeted the open back down at yesterday’s 2789.00 last-minute low, which offered no support. Attacking 2781.00 reacted up, by enough and in time to invoke the 2785.00 bias-down signal’s grace period.
2785.00 held as resistance to trigger late bias-down. Fresh lows at 10:30 ensured the 2777.25 bias-down target was in-play. And now it has been probed down to 2775.50.
There was no bullish reason to test 2777.00 last week, and no bullish reason to revisit it today. Maintaining its break would next target 2753.50. Under 2776.50 would start to signal that leg had begun.
Otherwise, isolating the 2777.00 test by exiting the bias environment above a relevant resistance could marginalize sellers for the day. Back above 2781.00 would be a start.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Deceptive noise, and a lot of it.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday night’s bounce up to 2799.00 was retraced to greet Tuesday’s open back under Monday’s late 2794.50 high. The open’s collapse attacked 2783.00 and recovered just as quickly. All of which was still within Monday’s final hour range. A lot of opening volatility, but no fresh extreme, often dooms the session to ranging. Trending attempts failed throughout the day as the balance of the session ranged choppily, widening to 2788.00-2796.00 only briefly. A late blip-up to 2797.00 was rejected through the cash session close down to 2789.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late dip extended immediately by the Globex open gapping down to test 2784.50. Extending gradually lower touched 2781.50 before midnight. Finally, it was the Tuesday’s first probe under Monday’s final hour range. But only temporarily, as price recovered to 2789.00 through Europe’s opens, hovering there since.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s last-minute slide and the overnight drop seem like trending, but that is deceptive, as price action remains within Monday’s final hour range. Unless Wednesday’s ADP and EIA produce evidence of intraday trending, continue exercising caution with exposure and sizing. The pattern still has no attractions or resolution requirements, whether in terms of price or time, all of which could change by either testing or breaking a bias signal.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2788.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2785.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2783.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2794.50 | 2794.75 |
| …would target | 2800.25 | 2800.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2784.50 | 2785.00 |
| …would target | 2776.75 | 2777.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Despite backing off of its late 2794.50 high to 2792.00, Monday afternoon’s bounce had potential for extending to test 2798.00. It was probed by 1 point overnight and then retraced back down under 2794.50 at Tuesday’s open. A post-open collapse attacked 2783.00 but it recovered just as quickly.
Post-open volatility had developed entirely within Monday’s final hour range, suggesting it was only noise, and warning to be suspicious of trending attempts. The balance of the session ranged choppily, widening to 2788.00-2796.00 only briefly. A late blip-up above 2796.00 was reversed to close back down into negative territory at the 2790.00 cash session close, and futures slid another point.
Although not required or even very likely, it’s a little surprising that Tuesday didn’t at least attack 2803.00-2805.00. Sellers hadn’t exploited the post-open collapse, and intraday opportunities to decline were held, as if stronger-handed sellers are still higher. Even the late 7-1/2 point collapse remained within the range.
The pattern still has no attractions or resolution requirements, whether in terms of price or time. Continue being cautious with entries and sizing. Wednesday’s ADP and EIA should enhance volatility, but we’ll need more evidence of trending.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping Monday back down to the two-week old 1.1333 buy signal had held through the close. But its reaction never even attacked the 1.1375 buy signal before probing lower to attack 1.1300 Tuesday. Back above 1.1350 Wednesday would be compelling for long-entry, but the burden of proof would still be on buyers.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Slightly lower lows overnight were recovered back into Monday’s range Tuesday, but not extended as the potential for an Island bottom becomes less. So, the bullish scenario would bounce temporarily before a second upleg could gain traction.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow flat-to-lower-to-flat ranging Tuesday kept the recent decline from extending through support 15.10, and keeps alive potential for recovering 15.40 to launch a recovery.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s bounce to resistance had seemed obligatory considering the flight-to-safety. Tuesday’s reaction down wasn’t substantial, but doesn’t negate the potential for dipping deeper to retest Sunday night’s lows.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s early test of the 57.00 buy signal wasn’t any more successful than Monday’s, or any more consequential as the balance of the session only ranged sideways again. The post-close API and Wednesday EIA report aren’t being greeted from a position of strength, but not from a position of weakness either.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s fresh high testing 2.89 had been isolated by Monday’s open, and not revisited until Monday night. Its retest was also isolated, and not repeated post-open. This setup undermines the upside potential for being unable to exploit the strength, and would be bearish if its reaction were extended down.