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Mid-day Update… Muck and mire.
Narrow choppy range persists.
My earlier warning remains as true, and its note remains on the chaRTroom screen: Be cautious with entries and sizing. This is still a no-bias environment, and still lacks an attraction. Which explains why price action remains within yesterday’s 2783.00-2795.00 final hour range — with one brief probe above it to 2796.00 before noon.
Now fresh afternoon lows are testing the 2788.00 bias-down signal. It should define the window’s low, and 1-minute RSI is making a higher low. So, the narrow range may be getting narrower.
The afternoon bias environment is the last pure intraday window. The final 60-90 minutes starts becoming more vulnerable to forward-looking influences. If the range does break in either direction, I would expect higher because sellers haven’t exploited 2-3 opportunities to resolve down. But any break higher would still be vulnerable to resolving down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 6, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s econ calendar is high-profile and influential. ADP starts off with a snapshot of market sentiment ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Then two afternoon Fed speakers appear before the afternoon’s Beige Book data.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
12:00 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks
12:10 PM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2797.25 | 2797.50 |
| …would target | 2804.25 | 2804.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2787.50 | 2788.00 |
| …would target | 2781.75 | 2782.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Chop, chop.
First hour is contained by yesterday’s final hour range.
Be cautious with entries and sizing. This being a no-bias environment, there is no required attraction in either direction. And despite having probed yesterday’s late high overnight, yesterday’s final hour range has contained this morning’s opening range. Trending sponsorship is weak-handed, to
the degree there’s any, and not just noise.
Inflections in the chaRTroom have still been productive, albeit short-lived before reversing direction. One thing that continues to be unlikely is volatility remaining heightened, regardless of whether price action is contained within a relatively wide range.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Is yesterday’s elephant still in the room?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s open had gapped up above all prior highs for the second consecutive week, triggered by a last-minute Trump China trade tweet, also for the second consecutive week. The rule of alternating resolutions ruled out extending higher. The overnight pullback from attacking 2820.00 to test 2810.00 still allowed for a post-open retest of the overnight high, but it was only attacked while fulfilling the morning’s 2817.50 bias-up target. Monday morning’s late bias-up signal didn’t prevent trending down sharply to exit the bias environment under its bias-down signal, negating a retest of the bias-up signal. Extending through the noon hour to 2767.50 encompassing all of the prior 6 sessions. The afternoon bounce retraced half of the earlier high-to-low drop, ending at 2792.00, and proving this rally has been probing thin air.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday afternoon’s recovery up to 2794.50 began retracing back down through the futures close and into the Globex open, eventually attacking 2785.00. All of which was recovered to greet Europe’s opens back at 2794.50. Extending higher this time to 2799.00 is now trying to hold 2794.50 as support.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s plunge was quite a shock to the system. That can inhibit and squelch volatility, but usually not until 1-2 days more of shock. And not necessarily in a straight line, or even back to either end of yesterday’s very wide range. The extended bounce described at yesterday’s close has developed overnight, but that doesn’t reverse the trend up. The greeting given the last two rallies up to 2803.00-2805.00 suggest peaking there if tested, without first having to be probed. Regardless, there is no “unfinished business” above, but that doesn’t necessarily resolve in an immediate collapse. Meanwhile, there was no bullish reason yesterday to revisit last Wednesday’s test of 2777.00 support, which now has less support if met again. Emphasis on “if met again,” since yesterday afternoon’s recovery did avoid a closing under Wednesday’s low, which Monday’s new high has made the new line in the sand for signaling a trend change.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2795.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2798.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2800.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.