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Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2798.25 | 2798.25 |
| …would target | 2805.50 | 2805.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2782.00 | 2782.25 |
| …would target | 2774.50 | 2774.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The week began with setup examples from its opening tick. Sunday night’s opening tick, which duplicated the prior Sunday’s gap up above all prior highs. 
That alone would suggest its resolution will be different, since sequential similar setups resolve differently. But they even had the same catalyst. So, the night gradually pulled back from attacking 2820.00 to testing 2810.00.
Another example came from Friday’s attack on last Monday’s 2814.00 high. Attacking it up to 2812.50 could have sufficed, but the session reversed down sharply. The market tends to compensate for delays, so retesting 2814.00 became likely to be probed up to 2817.50. Which Monday’s open twice tested and held.
Like last Monday’s gap up above all prior highs, this week’s 2815.50 opening print would want to be retested from below. Last week’s interim dip took control of the week. Monday’s dip took about 20 minutes. Neutralizing its attraction along with the morning’s 2817.50 bias-up target opened a vulnerability to reversing down.
I had preferred waiting for the overnight high’s retest before considering a sell signal, but no “unfinished business” above made the potential whipsaw worthwhile. And there was only one whipsaw before collapsing from 2810.00 to 2768.00. The afternoon trended back up, retracing half of the post-open drop to 2792.00. Monday’s range encompassed all of the prior 6 sessions, proving this rally has been encountering thin air. Extending any higher overnight would be vulnerable to greeting Tuesday’s open back in decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already lacking a bullish excuse to further delay resuming the rally, Sunday night’s dip was exacerbated Monday to fully retest the 1.1333 original buy signal to attack 1.1320. The buy signal’s minimum objective was met already, but holding its test on this pullback may allow another buy signal to form.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s dip fulfilled the likelihood for extending to another fresh low before being able to signal momentum reversing up. Monday’s open under the likely 1290.00 support extended down to 1284.00 to allow a close back above 1290.00 to signal a bottom is forming.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The most bullish path lower would have bounced first Sunday night or Monday before probing fresh lows, but fresh lows were already being probed at Monday’s open and the 15.10 objective was met and held. Back above 15.40 would signal the trend reversing back up.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Only a little further weakness was required Sunday night to fulfill the retest of prior lows at 143-22. That was greeted by a catalyst for rallying in a “flight-to-safety” as the stock market’s gap up reversed into a collapse Monday morning. But its high held the prior pattern’s 144-14 low as resistance, which does not qualify as reversing momentum up.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming into Monday was capable of resuming the rally, but not yet assured since Friday’s low had filled the outstanding gap below only nominally. An early test of the 57.00 buy signal held as the session only ranged sideways.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing higher Sunday night was erased before Monday’s open, and the session only ranged narrowly. The pattern can’t tolerate any delay to resuming the rally at this stage of the setup if upside momentum remains intact.
Mid-day Update… Suddenly, the mood shifts.
Limited upside attraction finds air pocket below.
No complexity to the 2719.75 overnight high had relieved it from requiring intraday retest. But I was giving a retest a benefit of the doubt so long as the 2811.75 earlier 
Globex low held as support. Which it did, easily, well before the 2815.50 open that also tested the 2717.50 bias-up target.
The 2815.50 open even maintained its gap up to form an anchor that would rescue an attempted decline. Which it did, after retesting the 2811.75 earlier Globex low. But the rescue didn’t extend higher. And the rescue filled the 2715.50 opening gap after probing back into last Monday’s “lower prior highs.” And the anchor’s rescue quality had been neutralized. All after having met the 2717.50 bias-up target.
No “unfinished business” above didn’t require reversing down, not after triggering late bias-up. But the market collapsed anyway. Probing under the 2809.75 bias-up signal during the bias-up environment had required its retracement — until the bias environment lapsed under the 2798.25 bias-down signal to establish that sellers were stronger-handed.
Persistently oversold 3-minute RSI continually warned against buying dips or getting too exposed to bounces. But now RSIs have diverged into the eventual 2767.50 low. Late no-bias has rejected tests of both the 2769.25 and 2777.00 bias-down parameters. And their reaction is testing 2781.50 with potential to 2790.75.
Bigger picture: Today’s fresh high creates a new prior relative low from Wednesday’s dip to 2775.00. Closing under it would signal the trend reversing down. These are often defended, so a second confirming close would be required. But not already rejecting its test this afternoon could very well end the day far below it.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 5, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s econ reports are largely high-profile, and potentially influential to price action. Any noticeable reaction to the post-open PMI would likely be duplicated in reaction to ISM.
Eric Rosengren Speaks
7:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET