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Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2790.75 | 2790.75 |
| …would target | 2798.00 | 2798.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2776.75 | 2777.00 |
| …would target | 2769.00 | 2769.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Anchor away.
Gap up maintained and recovered, but not yet resumed.
Firming into the open up to 2816.00 initially blipped-up to 2818.00. Any higher would have been compelling to buy, but its resistance held. The opening 15 minutes of volatility fluctuated at or above the opening print to create an anchor.
That anchor was soon called upon to attract price back up to it, from a sudden dip down to 2811.50. But its recovery didn’t resume the rally, and another drop tested the 2809.75 bias-up signal by 3 ticks.
The bias-up signal triggered late. And back above 2814.50 would indicate the 2819.75 overnight high’s retest is likely underway. The bias-up environment could include another detour down to 2808.00, and since the 2817.50 bias-up target was met already, under 2808.00 would be vulnerable to launching a deeper decline.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Sunday’s similar sequential setups.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s relentless rally from 2782.75 had extended 20 points to 2803.00. And that was before a last-minute surge through the open extended to neutralize the “unfinished business” back to Monday’s 2807.75 opening gap. Obligatory resistance was expected, but its reversal nearly retraced all of Thursday’s close down to 2787.00 by noon. The balance of the session rallied back up to within 3 ticks of the open’s high, closing at 2804.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Another last-minute Trump China trade tweet triggered a buying frenzy at Sunday night’s Globex open. Gapping up to 2814.00 quickly extended to attack 2820.00. I added a warning to the chaRTroom screen that since last week’s similar setup had held up and eventually extended this sequential Sunday’s similar setup would be vulnerable to reversing down. And the balance of the night has only trended back down, through midnight and Europe’s opens, probing below the earlier Globex low to 2809.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday afternoon’s recovery was slightly less likely to reverse down immediately, likelier to first extend higher. Having missed the opportunity Friday morning for being satisfied with only an attack on last Monday’s 2814.00 high to 2812.50, extending higher had become likely to probe fresh highs up to 2817.50. So, Sunday night’s gap up has neutralized upside attractions. Being a similar setup to last Sunday suggests resolving differently by Monday’s open. This week’s instance lacks the complexity to form a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest, but the setups are still comparable. I’ll be reluctant to sell prior to its retest so long as the open remains within the overnight high’s orbit, which begins above the open’s 2812.00 opening low. The area below it down to Friday’s ~2808.00 highs is a gray area, but exiting the opening 15 minutes any lower would be treated as a bearish Globex-flip — likelier to trend down this morning.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2808.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2809.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2812.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/2/19) …Burden of proof, or else poof.
The week ended back up where it had begun. And it began by gapping up to new recovery highs. But that gap up had created an anchor to ensure its recovery. That “unfinished business” above is now neutralized, and the week did not trend up. The rally can extend, but it needs a new signal. Meanwhile, it remains vulnerable to launching a deeper retracement. We discuss the parameters for recognizing either during this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
CVS, NTNX, WDC, QCOM
transcript
—————– (03/02/2019 09:12) —————–
Rod David: -=-=-=-
—————– (03/02/2019 09:32) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
Adam: Hi
—————– (03/02/2019 09:49) —————–
David B: Is there more of a chance that we break thru higher because of strong handed buyers on friday?
David B: i did not
Mark G: but the highest close on Fri requires at least one more higher close
Mark G: no link today
—————– (03/02/2019 09:56) —————–
Mark G: already answered
David B: do you believe this rally has been more of news of the fed and china and will be retraced?
Mark G: got resent
—————– (03/02/2019 10:04) —————–
David B: typically V bottoms are not durable and should be retraced?
—————– (03/02/2019 10:06) —————–
David B: what close would tell us we are headed to test the highs?
—————– (03/02/2019 10:09) —————–
Mark G: can get through 2860 perhaps temporarily by a positive China trade resolution
—————– (03/02/2019 10:10) —————–
Mark G: yes
Mark G: for sure a sell
David B: what close below would start to indicate were are starting to retrace part of this rally?
Mark G: trend change signal?
—————– (03/02/2019 10:15) —————–
jp: CVS,NTNX
David B: WDC,QCOM
—————– (03/02/2019 10:18) —————–
jp: if it should hold long term support back to 20132
—————– (03/02/2019 10:20) —————–
jp: yes 2013
—————– (03/02/2019 10:22) —————–
jp: is it recoverable
—————– (03/02/2019 10:25) —————–
jp: ty
—————– (03/02/2019 10:26) —————–
David B: has a low been put in for WDC?
—————– (03/02/2019 10:32) —————–
David B: Thanks
—————– (03/02/2019 10:34) —————–
Bill G: Thanks
Saturday Review Link – RESENDING
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!