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Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2452.25 | 2449.50 |
| …would target | 2458.00 | 2455.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2445.25 | 2442.75 |
| …would target | 2430.00 | 2437.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s new high close was a reasonable trade-off for the bearish WedEX not being influential. A better trade-off was that the early indication of WedEX’s demise defaulted to extending the rally. Which it did, considerably.
Regardless of the degree to which the rally extended Monday, an outstanding structural requirement was neutralized. The two-week old requirement for at least one more new high close is now done. More may come, but none are required.
Along the way, Monday afternoon’s bias-up was triggered and now its 2454.00 target is “unfinished business above.” 
Attacking it to within 3 ticks at any time would neutralize it.
Ironically, AMZN offers a singular intersection of two competing influences — trending up, and overextended. Monday’s new high (green circle) failed to hold above recent “higher prior lows” (red circle). The trend is up, but the pattern is vulnerable to reversing down at any time. The broader market, too.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday touched 1.1255 resistance and reversed back down to unchanged, duplicating the distribution from the test of “higher prior lows” that already had contained Friday’s bounce. There’s no requirement to resume the decline, but the only reason to further delay it now would be to avoid it altogether.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows into Monday’s open not only extended the decline, but also resumed it from the two-day consolidation of having gapped down sharply Thursday. .Only closing back above 1259.25 would prevent this leg from extending next to 1235.00
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s break lower from having consolidated into the weekend all but confirms the current decline is targeting a test of 16.30 before a bottom can be credible.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s 61.8% retracement back up to Wednesday afternoon’s high was pierced by only 1 tick overnight, keeping alive the vulnerability to launching a new reaction down under 155-00 targeting 153-29, and potentially also its break as a larger top forms.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up slightly Monday was reversed only slightly, but that was enough to pierce Thursday’s prior low down to 44.34. Closing back above 45.29 and 45.80 would reverse the trend up.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction to EIA had been maintained Friday, delaying its likely retracement back to last week’s 2.92 lows. The delay was compensated by gapping down Sunday night and extending to probe new lows at Monday’s open down to 2.88. Any recovery requires closing back above 2.95.
Mid-day Update… Higher highs.
Bias-up target in-play.
This morning’s rally ultimately surged to 2450.00 as the bias environment began. The bias environment exit dipped to 2443.75. That one-hour pullback is today’s only pullback, so far.
Attracted by overbought RSIs at the high, price action since then has trended back up. Extending through the noon hour and into this afternoon’s bias environment just attacked 2451.00. Now RSIs are NOT overbought.
Room for noise above 2445.00 ends at 2453.00. Overlapping it could fulfill this afternoon’s 2454.00 bias-up target (even if only to within 3 ticks). Vulnerability to reversing down is high, but meanwhile at least one new high close remains as “unfinished business above.”
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 20, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Here come the Fed speakers. They’re obviously busy around the FOMC meeting, but now their schedules permit public appearances — and their jobs require it. Two of Tuesday’s three Fed speakers appear near or during trading hours.
Stanley Fischer Speaks
3:15 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
8:15 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
3:00 PM ET