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Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2451.00 | 2448.25 |
| …would target | 2456.50 | 2454.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2444.25 | 2441.75 |
| …would target | 2438.75 | 2436.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Untethered.
Gap up surges its way to new highs.
Gapping up didn’t kill the WedEX’s bearish influence. Neither did extending higher. Printing a higher high after the first 15 
minutes of volatility did the deed. WedEX is dead.
We’d already been observing bullish behavior, at least to create an anchor for recovery purposes in case of reversal. There was no reversal. Gapping up to 2440.50 blipped-down 2 points and quickly recovered to extend the rally. A Running Correction up to 2443.00 (remember that) resolved up while 3-minute RSI became persistently overbought.
3-minute RSI remains persistently overbought, for now, while new highs probe 2445.00 is probed up to 2450.00. The renewed bias-up is fulfilled. There’s room for noise above at 2453.00, but no requirement to reach it.
Overbought RSIs at 2450.00 require its eventual retest. Near-term, back under 2446.50 would start to signal a corrective dip underway. Its target would be 2441.50, the lower quadrant of that Running Correction I mentioned above.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Probing resistance.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s flat open at 2432.00 has until only recently spent most of the night attacking 2437.00. Sliding into the open extended through the open to 2420.25. That was the bias environment low, which was recovered somewhat into the noon hour when the bearish WedEX influence began. Mostly flat ranging would have fulfilled WedEX. But a surge began almost within 3 minutes of the cash session close. It extended through the futures close to attack 2435.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open dipped very shallowly, and ranged shallowly. Then it surged up to 2437.50. The rally resumed into and out of Europe’s opens, extending briefly up to 2440.25. It’s reaction is testing 2437.50 as support.
If, then…
If WedEX’s bearish influence is valid, then Monday morning should trend down. Regardless of the open, which could gap up considerably. Despite not much of a bearish influence Friday afternoon, the burden of proof is on buyers. Rallying through the open to a fresh high would meet that burden, targeting new highs at 2445.00 and higher, if not also a new high close. Not rallying early, or rejecting an early rally, could be contained within Friday’s range. A downleg isn’t required to fulfill “unfinished business below” at 2418.75, 2415.50, but it would be likely if a morning downleg were to dig too deep.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2440.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2438.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2445.00. Exiting the open above 2336.00 would at least be likely to trigger the 2333.00 bias-up signal.
Phonetic dictation…
okay good morning and welcome we had some conectivity issues initially so it’s a little late getting out apologize for that but the Market Tours a little little easy and we were at a binary situation basically first of all on Friday morning Friday morning rejected what what what had been in early rally Thursday night that plaid Toad and ranged nearly four hours until coming home within view coming within view of the open tell me within view of the open and greeting the open already sliding plunging even with unfinished business outstanding below couldn’t get the market down deep enough to satisfy that at 1875 there’s unfinished business even lower than that the balance of the session it was an expiration session rallied and this is where we’re left is at Fridays close as of Friday’s close having surged into it that’s a little optical illusion because before we got to the cash session close which is right there it had been not a downtrending afternoon not a biased down afternoon sort of mean any probe above above the noon-hour xentry right about here was retraced back under or to the noon hour Zen tree so that at least would have qualified as rallying or by us up or disqualify the barest wed x influence which is our filter for looking at this morning’s open and perhaps this morning entirely but when we got to it in 3 minutes of the cash has some clothes and actually even it was just a minute before a minute or a minute before minute or two before getting to within three minutes of the cash and close that’s when things took off that’s the cash session clothes and then expiration as is a characteristic with it extended higher that’s the Futures close 350 and after maintenance notice that notice that this is and this is Friday the price extended even higher to 3475 so we’re way out of whack with Friday afternoons prices if there’s a barrage wed x then it doesn’t really have any effect or shouldn’t have any effect on the overnight what is it have an effect on is the intraday Post open Action so that’s why the barest FedEx is going to be our filter for viewing this morning’s opening action and if it’s invalidated through the open by trending up above Pryor High and maintaining that probe of Bubba Pryor High then that’s it for Bare Esthetics influence after this even though late performance on Friday if this morning’s open isn’t resolving down or coming out of the open resolving down then the morning won’t matter but if the morning if the open that is it is be racially inclined then we will continue using that bearers filtered of you the rest of the morning and the rest of the morning at the very least would be targeting a retrieve sment back to Friday afternoons rain doesn’t have to get there just has to Target as to be attracted to it the point is not be attracted to Gap up this is where it gets interesting couple of influence influence this morning who the open if it’s not exceeded through 10:15 that’s going to be our first opportunity to view the morning as being bearish retracing where well there’s room down to 33 at least the bicep signal and if by 10:15 both 3850 + 33 of been rejected that automatically puts into play it off saying test of the bias down signal at 24 if 3850 were touched Post open so it’s rejection was actually done by the Post open crowd not just failing to exceed it or touch it or failing to exceeded Post Post open then the bias down Target is 1875 that level that was left outstanding Thursday so it was a tech Friday morning so lots of downside if all of the overnight action the one-way Relentless single-minded overnight action greeting Monday with a gap up action often finds counter-trend action Post open Post open off encounters the overnight in those instances in those setups if it doesn’t do it at the oven if it’s not being rejected at the open is not going to be rejected and we’re going to look up if it’s not being rejected at the open at the overnight Rally’s not being rejected by the opening exit or as the opening exit is ending then our next objective is higher there’s very little possibility of the railing return to the highs if that point Wednesday’s pre-open Pro or attack on actually last Friday the prior Fridays hi there within a tick fresh highs 24 4315 Bingham Pryor High 2445 the next objective not that we get there immediately but very little if anything can derail it if that’s the case alright looking at other markets starting with the Euro which is gapping up here it’s got no requirement for any lower if we have objectives at 111-110 basically lower until then there’s a test done on Friday and now overnight there’s a bounce to so back up into the range make it such significant support may be the better word is reliable least some bounce off at is likely it’s less likely to just break through it especially on his first attempt having said that though under this Gap start feeling that and we’ll be looking for lower price down to 1238 initially silver which has its own issues down here digging a little bit deeper overnight down to 57 1657 there’s a gap fill down here being negotiated and it’s really a matter of there are lower prioritize down to 1630 on the next if in fact this morning is not recovering or we don’t come out of the morning recovery Long Pond already retraced Wednesdays Wednesday afternoons drop by 61.8% from what is then Friday is open or Thursdays Fridays opening dip sorry Fridays and so there’s no it’s actually .
Saturday Review’s recording (for 6/17/17) …Waiting to happen.
I’m sending this week’s Saturday Review immediately since Adobe’s last-minute URL-switch delayed many attendees from entering. The beginning thoroughly examines the current relationship among the three major indexes. If anything, it has worsened, without yet being reflected in overall trends. That doesn’t necessarily require the next leg to be that reversal, and often a final unified bounce develops first. So, we examine both possible paths, 1-2 derivations of those paths, and then also consider the potential for rally extending anyway.
okay good morning and welcome it is Saturday it’s time for the Saturday review we will be doing a hard break at 1030 at the latest preferably a little bit before that but if you have stocks post them when they come to you and we’ll work them and try to get all of them anyway and if any questions come to you as I’m going through the going through the description discussion of the market please post those I mean I get to my way but I will address everything so where are we and the first thing first answer to that oughta be really where are we not what I mean by that is what could have happened and didn’t because what could have happened last week this week was certainly within proximity to Pryor High that was last Friday morning Pryor High on Friday morning and reaction to the employment situation report no no no no sorry so in the morning failed to maintain it and as a consequence missed last week an opportunity for a new trend I close on a Friday we had one of those apple and add portfolio manager smart enough to be involved and that’s where he’s being involved that is in the the Dow 30 type of stock Blue Chip widely followed very liquid pretty consistent or reliable earning streams dividends everything that we all want in our retirement safety they have to be involved but they can’t be in the speculative issues anymore and of course the control group is S&P the S&P 500 not as down in the dumps as ndx but down on a pull back and certainly not on the terror not on the rally mode that the that the Dow is on getting an email someone who is having difficulty getting in just to be sure I did send out a follow-up it has been having some issues going out this weekend and so I’m assuming this is one of their issues that we come in and problem with the with the URL but what else do we know of speaking of the weather the wet X indicator itself is bearish wouldn’t know it to look at it from Friday afternoons price action Friday afternoons price action being influenced finally by the signal that’s triggered at Wednesday’s close it comes its influence comes online as early as noon as late as entering the bias environment 131 2130 and in fact entering the bias environment was no better than entering the noon hour although there had been a little higher high and in fact extending all the way through the bias environment through the final hours entry halfway through the final hour the entirety of that action is Niro raging is it was despite probing like the noon hour of temporary hire High and the final hour or the head of the final hour the final entry have improved a higher high everything it pulled back everything had corrected until that final half-hour so if we can dismiss that final half hour which isn’t optimal but if we can also point out that apart from this closed 24 3450 being touched in the final minutes having picked up basically three points from the cash session closed the entire day the cash session was spent in negative territory also more indicative of a bearish session in Polish so the bottom line is that I’m not dismissing the influence which is important for Monday morning because the wet X influence is exactly that Friday afternoon and Monday morning and if there’s any influence on Friday afternoon better influence in this we’d have a high degree of confidence of anticipating that influence to be more aggressive on Monday morning and I’m anticipating unless disproved by popping up Wednesday night add 25 7525 and outer case unfinished business below the expect that to be an attraction 24 1550 is unfinished business left outstanding Thursday morning 2412 50 last Friday’s low actually the the snap election vote reaction oversold are size they require retest have all of that gives way if that is being tested into the OR at any point during the day if not ever but probably if that’s if we get that much sewing pressure on Monday morning we’re away from the high the highs any gravitational pull that we can contribute to the highest probably your relevant at that point and rather than produce that fresh hi we would simply be looking for deeper pulled back deeper pull back being something on the order of a man is under 24 1250 really 24 1250s test likely to be a point lower than that then 925 2407 & 2399 do we need a new Hive two counts we do need a new high and do I close a new hi. Because on the morning couple Fridays ago the reaction to the to Britain’s elections and that’s still not right that is not the correct cause so in any case and reaction to the new high or while printing the new high are a size 1 in 3 minutes I’d simultaneously became upper body at the height that requires a retest the prior Friday while that intrenched the uptrend and told us that the interim pull back would be temporary still hasn’t been rewarded with its own new closing high that there has been a new High clothes that’s Wednesday basically but it’s so mitigated by probing higher the interim Friday by probing higher even that Wednesday morning the Gap up and that the new High clothes was within the all of those ranges it’s just not qualifying that’s not in the spirit of satisfying and fulfilling these buyers for that effort they made that produced a new I close on Friday so in 25 1250 pricetown first and then we have that 2447 or 2445 2553 outstanding is less likely now as much time as has developed to get out of this range that becomes much less likely to be terminal and whether or not that is immediately exceeded or whether that is interrupted by a dip to lower prioritize which will watch for the potential that in fact this is just a temporary false break but at this point if this leg is inserted in the pattern at this late stage probably a pullback would recover tell her hi so that’s one shade One Small Change potential I mean it’s potentially big change but just one small Edition new possible leg that would develop so the bullish pattern is actually to dip about 35 points here test 2499 and not just touch it but actually prove it or 2399 from 30-30 150 the cash Section Quiz basically or actually it’s lower than that 3050 if we drop this 31 points get that done probably at this late stage that means we’ve got much higher Highs coming not just back to 2445 2553 or 2453 but even higher right yet as far as looking at the comparisons and also as far as looking at it needs to hold on Monday morning it also needs to be and what end of this week but at the end of the following week so there’s no Saturday review that weekend but there will be next weekend that seasonal that seasonality tends to be bullish at least to the extent that it prevents selling off prevents or makes unlikely not necessarily enter of Richard a drop or even a one or two-day drop but an actual Trend reversal to the downside so if the market is going to complete some upside of jective and I do so on a timely basis so its position and if not actually not only position to but already trending down before the July for Holiday otherwise down Trend reversal of the rally or break lower from an ongoing trading range and other case would be delayed until at the very earliest right after July 4th typically though several days of protection after that alright I see a couple people made it in again I apologize Adobe is very odd and how they change the domains radically and I think that’s something that they are aiming to correct and their update that goes out tomorrow night the point to that being that the chart-room is unavailable I’m being told from 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. eastern Sunday night to Monday morning 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. they did this couple weeks ago as well when they’re when they’re and recordings were having difficulties they weren’t sinking appreciate it very much low volatility cause mood end prematurely it does that’s true that is a that is at least it causes the trend to to change the way a tense but if it’s a narrowing range this one hasn’t really been narrowing but if it’s a narrowing range it does tend to break falsely and One Direction before reversing in the opposite direction have more substantial and if that means small break in other words it’s narrow range low volatility range which is gotten shopping but still centered if it suddenly breaks higher that’s going to be a lot likelier to contain a peek brakes lower 2399 and reverses more substantially to the outside that’s going to be likelier to break through the 2443 or 45 that is 53 upside calculations please go back to the first part of the comparisons among the three major indexes and the problem persists money is big money is rotating into safety and how to have a great weekend take care
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!