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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The initial downside objective at 1.1111 was attacked closely enough Monday night to at least push price back up within Friday’s range. And apparently only that hard, as that’s where the balance of the session ranged. Resuming the decline would next target 1.1000.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Aug, which is trading at a $3.30 premium to Jun] Gapping down Tuesday worked to trap Friday’s gap up that had failed to extend higher. Closing under 1259.00 would begin to signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 1255.00. Meanwhile, even a to has room to probe a fresh high above 1272.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down slightly Tuesday was quickly held and consolidated before a late-morning surge to fresh highs at 17.46. If left intact, the rally’s next higher objective is 17.95. Otherwise, closing under 17.20 would reverse the trend down.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Actually probing a fresh relative high Tuesday had no reason not to extend higher, and has no reason not to continue extending higher Wednesday. Last week’s dips at least had trapped shorts, but now actually rallying must prove that sellers are done.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s dip barely touched 49.05 support before firming through the balance of the session. But it did not recover 49.85, which would start to trigger a new upleg instead of resuming the decline.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down sharply Tuesday finally fulfilled the longstanding objective for a new low close under 3.20 that a confirmed breakout had triggered weeks earlier. Compensation for the delay suggests at least 1-2 sessions of lower lows, although not necessarily consecutive.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 31, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The holiday-shortened week continues to make the econ calendar a little more dense, but not much more influential. Any noticeable reaction to the pre-open Fed speaker is likely to be duplicated by the post-open PMI. Don’t forget that PMI is released privately to its institutional subscribers several minutes before the public gets it. And reaction to both is usually similar. The afternoon’s Beige Book is influential, too — and often inhibits price action just before its release.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Robert Kaplan Speaks
8:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2415.75 | 2414.50 |
| …would target | 2421.75 | 2420.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2409.50 | 2408.25 |
| …would target | 2403.00 | 2401.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Uncertain support.
Chipping away at the lower-end.
The pre-open dip to 2407.75 had repeated Friday’s pre-open test of Thursday’s gap up. That had bounced before Friday’s open, and today’s pre-open dip bounced, too. A post-open dip to 2408.50 repeated the pattern, but it was the first time the dip and bounce had developed intraday.
The post-open bounce’s likely objective at 2413.00 was tested. The gap back up to Friday’s 2413.75 close (also Thursday’s close) was essentially filled. And held. The bounce left behind tenuous support around 2408.50. And it’s being tested again.
No higher objective or attraction is in-play. And there’s plenty of room below before this morning’s 2505.75 bias-down signal might inhibit sellers. But this is a no-bias environment, so no bias attraction is in-play. Back above 2412.00 would suggest a retest of the range’s upper-end. Otherwise, there’s still potential for a deeper break targeting 2399.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Certainly resistance.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
I’m labeling Friday’s range as narrow, but only because my microscope is at the shop. The session was largely contained within 2 points between 2413.00-2415.00, except for a couple of brief moments either way. And that was contained within Thursday afternoon’s actually narrow 4-point range. Friday’s ranging required recovering a pre-open break to 2408.00, which wasn’t rewarded. The 2314.75 close was flat with Thursday.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s 2-point opening surge to 2417.00 barely pierced Thursday’s highs (except for Thursday’s late blip-up). Dips touched unchanged at 2413.75, which was still being tested at Monday night’s open. Asia’s opens triggered a dip that attacked 2410.00. Its recovery attacked 2413.75, but only to range sideways while retesting 2410.00.
If, then…
Last night’s range is twice as wide as Friday’s intraday range, and it’s still only 4 points. Unfortunately, the range’s absolute narrowness is more predictive than its relative expansion. But the rally’s sudden and ongoing inertia does confirm the 2415.00 target is relevant. Ranging only narrowly there doesn’t prevent trying to extend higher, but it makes trying to extend higher likely to fail from 2421.50-2424.25. Nor does the narrow range represent stability, so a dip to 2399.00 is possible. Either way, a dip would be less likely to return to Friday’s range.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2413.00 would be unlikely to trigger this morning’s 2416.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2409.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2405.75 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome back from a long weekend long holiday weekend it is Tuesday Monday was a holiday in the u.s. Memorial Day so it’s a holiday shortened week number of reports are squeezed into the four remaining days and some of them are stacked on top of each other and usually what is odd is that terribly odd because we don’t really have that much of Allah Tony when us markets are closed what is odd is the extremely narrow range you know this is over night I had Friday’s open this dip this dip under Thursday afternoons at that point relatively narrow range Four Points not including the late surge that was retraced that was nothing compared to Friday I was traveling could not have picked a better day your welcome very narrow range little into points but for tick here or there couple things here and there 2 point range relatively relatively narrow range Sunday night or two points to basically Pierce Thursdays I buy a tech all the while on 24 1375 was Thursday’s close it was Friday’s close it was Sunday nights Lowe’s it was Monday night Monday was closed Monday night’s low moment earring low before your ages opens broke lower that’s basically where we been ever since having broken lower on Asia’s ranges open and consolidating that but still still within this bigger range under Fridays narrow range and above Thursday’s loan at Thursday’s reopened dip Thursday’s pre-opening dip is somewhat of a warning shot across the bow in other words near Miss but they’re recalibrating for another shot and 2415 which was the long-standing objective of this rally here you can see the chart without the overnight action and see the last couple days last week having tested it held it raised nearly there pretty much confirming that’s irrelevant level and not leaving any unfinished business above other than Thursday’s Gap up above all Pryor High is that a very wide Gap up but 2415 having now been confirmed as a relevant level the long-standing target having fulfilled a lot of buying pressure the narrow ranging even this pre-open Dipper overnight dip back to Thursday’s overnight or Fridays pre-open dip or attacking it none of that precludes one more probe higher but an intraday probe hire as likely to fail so if there is an intraday probe higher it could fail from from the 20s 2224 plus reach – 24 24 24 and then fail but I from this base but do that with stability don’t confuse this Niro raging with stability it is more indecision is more insecurities in ability to withstand a dip find buyers below buyers not interested in pushing price iron a lot of this is a function of the limited volume and participation but only to degrade will see the answer to that of course at the open but if it’s a push higher from this narrow range it’s likely to return to the range if not also through it if there’s a break lower first a break lower doesn’t have that same likelihood of recovering or returning back into this narrow range of break lower could reach and probably would reach under 2423 99 before bouncing lower prioritize down here hire private lives up here wanting to be retested possibly bouncing to this HAARP rilos possibly retest that never rang. There’s a gap back to Thursday’s open at is resistance and went slower Pryor tested the Gap back to Thursdays 8:50 to 8:50 could be enough resistance to allow another down leg to begin there is no requirement to Trend any higher breaking lower so for that is the Line in the Sand if this is a valid breakout 6150 will maintain its recovery and that would basically put in the play I’m innocent number of attractions and resistance points but essentially new heights very slowly okay otherwise closing today under 6150 would indicate this was a false break and if this was a false break then this pattern will unfold very quickly to the downside so we’ll know relatively quickly whether this was a false breaker because it’ll be rejected relatively quickly today therefore if we make it through the that this is a break out and stop alright any questions please post them to the chart room I will see you before they open okay good luck today .