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Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2417.50 | 2416.25 |
| …would target | 2422.75 | 2421.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2407.00 | 2405.75 |
| …would target | 2401.00 | 2399.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue May 30, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: This week’s calendar will seem packed, because of some reports being rescheduled during the holiday-shortened week. So, Tuesday is busy, but with only report that has a track record for influencing price action. It’s likely to duplicate any reaction to either pre-open report.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 29, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: U.S. markets are closed in observance of Memorial Day. Globex trading opens as usual at 6:00pm ET Sunday night.
Globex close
1:00 PM ET
Globex open
6:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2417.00 | 2415.75 |
| …would target | 2422.50 | 2421.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2410.50 | 2409.25 |
| …would target | 2405.25 | 2404.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Second Bites?
Pre-open dip recovers. Emphasis on “pre-open.”
The overnight dip had retested yesterday’s noon hour low down to its 2410.00 objective. And then lower to 2408.00. Natural support at Thursday’s 2408.50 opening print was leveraged by both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs diverging positively.
The reaction recovered back into yesterday afternoon’s range up to 2413.50. The open’s bobble recovered to attack the 2415.75 bias-up signal within 1 tick. It didn’t trigger, so this is a no-bias environment.
The bias-up signal attack was a little late and a little short, so an offsetting test of the 2404.00 bias-down signal isn’t in-play. Not officially. Not very much unofficially, either, this being a Friday and sponsorship becoming less interested.
But the overnight dip is vulnerable to being retested so long as momentum hasn’t actually reversed up. Which it hasn’t. And overnight action never qualifies as the only bite at the apple. So, almost any break lower would likely probe fresh lows, like this morning’s bias-down signal or lower.
Meanwhile, exiting the bias environment trending up could extend into the afternoon. Don’t forget about the Friday Factors, which can extend a trending effort or fresh session extreme beyond usual constraints.