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Mid-day Update… Trending still trapped.
Recovering the open’s dip held resistance.
This morning’s 7-point plunge down to 2381.75 had consolidated into the bias environment lapsing. Rallying through the noon hour touched 2388.00, and held.
Testing 2388.00 wasn’t rejected — its 2-point reaction down hasn’t even probed its pullback limit by 3 ticks. But this afternoon’s 2386.50 bias-up signal didn’t trigger. And it could have. Not only did bias-up not trigger, but neither did no-bias. This is a noN-bias environment.
noN-bias means the bias-up signal isn’t required to define the window’s upper-end, although it often does. Nevertheless, a fresh high above 2388.00 would be credible for resuming the noon hour’s rally. This morning’s 2391.00 bias objective did become “unfinished business above.”
Meanwhile, back under 2385.00 would be credible for resuming the morning’s drop. Not only to its 2382.50 bias-down signal, but through yesterday’s ~2381.00 lows to 2377.25.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 3, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: This week is is rare for containing both an FOMC policy statement on Wednesday, and payrolls on Friday. The pre-open ADP report offers me an opportunity to gauge the market’s sentiment toward Friday’s report. And the reaction to a pre-open report is often duplicated in reaction to post-open reports — of which two are high-profile, if not also influential to price action. High-profile post-close earnings include FB.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2390.50 | 2386.50 |
| …would target | 2395.75 | 2391.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2386.50 | 2382.50 |
| …would target | 2381.25 | 2377.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Stop me if you’ve heard this one.
Another open, another test of key resistance.
Narrow ranging down to 2384.25 was recovered back to the overnight high pre-open. Its test of 2388.00 was repeated, and slightly exceeded, before price receded — once again trending down sharply through the open.
The slide barely paused until touching this morning’s 2383.75 bias-down signal. It was retested in time to invoke the grace period despite being probed by 1 point while RSIs were simultaneously oversold. Still, it held in time to avoid triggering.
This is a late no-bias environment. An offsetting test of the 2391.00 bias-up signal is in-play, but less reliably. Back above 2385.00 would make that more reliable.
But meanwhile, back under 2282.75 would start to signal “no-bias trending” to probe fresh lows anyway. And there’s no bullish reason to revisit yesterday’s ~2381.00 lows. Their test would be very vulnerable to breaking lower, and extending to 2377.25.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Overnight fizzle.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s gap up to 2386.00 was reversed immediately to fill the gap back down to Friday’s 2381.00 close. But no lower, despite having put into play an offsetting test of the morning’s 2377.25 bias-down signal. Recovering back to the 2387.50 overnight highs was later extended to attack 2391.00, after absorbing a knee-jerk reaction down on headlines. It wasn’t too late for a third reaction down, or for that reaction’s break back under 2388.00 to prevent a close above it that would otherwise have been bullish.
Overnight action’s new info…
An extremely narrow and flat 2-3 point range held one test of 2388.00, and has since been bouncing repeatedly off of 2384.25.
If, then…
Gapping up above 2391.00 Tuesday would suggest last week’s rally is resuming. That’s not indicated, and neither pre-open economic report is capable of triggering that. Quarterly earnings are still coming, but the positive surprises aren’t registering in the market. The door to fresh lows remains every bit open as the two prior sessions — not required, but likely to be recovered.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2381.00 would be likely to trigger the 2383.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2385.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2388.00 bias-up signal.