members-only
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2394.75 | 2391.00 |
| …would target | 2400.00 | 2396.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2386.25 | 2382.75 |
| …would target | 2381.00 | 2377.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Was Monday’s pattern any different than Thursday or Friday? Each held shallow probes under Wednesday’s 2382.00 low. Each rejected early strength — or, in Monday’s case, early strength was only retraced. And each has yet to recover Wednesday’s last-hour slide.
But retracing Monday’s early strength was recovered (twice). And the afternoon was in recovery mode, attacking 2391.00. The only threat of fresh lows was if the recovery mode were to fail. So, is last week’s rally resuming? Gapping up above 2391.00 Tuesday would suggest so.
Monday’s late break lower rejected the probe above 2388.00. And the break closed under the morning’s 2387.50 recovery highs. The door to fresh lows remains every bit open as each session following Thursday and Friday. Fresh lows remain likely to be recovered, and fresh lows overnight could be recovered before Tuesday’s open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s inside day wasn’t predictive, but it also didn’t challenge the ongoing pattern’s likelihood of producing at least a brief retest of last week’s high.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The ongoing delay in rallying while having only barely touched the 1261.00 area resulted in fresh lows Monday down to 1255.00. Closing back above 1259.00 would signal the break lower had held, and that momentum was revering up. There is otherwise little more nearby support below.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows into Monday’s open chipped away at 17.09 which must hold for the pullback to be defined as only a temporary correction. It was broken sharply intraday down to 16.81. Meanwhile, the Up/Down-crash setup has reached 11 consecutive sessions of closing lower, with one allowable exception. And reversing up would be temporary if not recovering 17.23.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s fresh low split the 2-tick difference between the long-standing target, fulfilling it down to 151-21. The bounce limit is now 152-08 to maintain the downside momentum. Otherwise, a recovery back up to 155-13 can begin to form.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The week began under pressure, probing under Friday’s lows, but not trending down or attacking Wednesday’s prior low. Closing above 50.00 would still signal a bottom is forming.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s 3.30 high was pierced momentarily Sunday night. But slipping into Monday’s open was extended intraday to retest Thursday’s 3.21 low. At least one new low close under 3.12 remains outstanding.
Mid-day Update… Detour.
Filled gap holds post-open drop, launches its recovery.
A funny thing happened on the way down to 2377.25. The first time. That was after the open’s gap up had held a test of the 2385.75 bias-up signal, which put into play 2377.25. That dip filled the gap back to Friday’s close down to 2380.75, double-bottomed while RSIs diverged positively, and bounced.
A lot. All the way back up to the 2387.50 overnight high. And the pattern that developed there was all but ensured to probe higher.
Probing higher still is all but ensured. Even after the morning’s bounce up to 2387.50 collapsed down to 2381.25 in reaction to a headline. That was totally unexpected. Almost totally. After all, the ongoing headline risk is why even the likeliest resolution can only be “all but” ensured.
Anyway, being a knee-jerk reaction to a headline, the second dip’s weak-handed sponsorship invited buyers. An a bounce has recovered to attack the morning’s 2387.50 highs. Probing higher is all but ensured.
A test of this morning’s 2377.25 bias-down signal has become “unfinished business below.” Another break lower would likely extend down to the objective, no matter how weak-handed its sponsorship. Meanwhile, whatever enabled avoiding this morning’s objective seems intent on producing a bigger detour up, first.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue May 2, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Nothing on Tuesday’s economic calendar is high-profile, or has a track record for influencing price action. Quarterly earnings continue, including AAPL post-close.
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET