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Mid-day Update… Dodging rocks and hard places.
Headline politely waits for target to be met.
Not triggering the 2388.00 bias-up signal didn’t prevent testing its 2394.00 bias-up target, piercing it by 3 ticks. Drifting down had barely managed to 
violate the pullback limit when a headline triggered a slide to 2386.25.
Being a knee-jerk reaction to news, the drop is now being recovered. So far, up to 2392.00, a 61.8% retracement back to the high. And the high does require a retest, having originated from overbought RSIs.
That attraction above is competing with the instability of this morning’s rally. Yesterday’s rally gained no traction and this morning’s open didn’t gap up. So, extending higher anyway tends only to stretch the rubber band for a reversal down.
Back under 2386.00-2387.00 would start to signal that reversal underway. Meanwhile, there remains potential to retest session highs.
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2393.75 | 2390.00 |
| …would target | 2398.50 | 2395.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2388.75 | 2385.25 |
| …would target | 2382.75 | 2379.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Is firm far enough?
Post-open surge and follow-through holds at resistance.
After a relatively narrow overnight range, the open was greeted unchanged from yesterday’s 2385.00 close. As often happens, volatility suddenly arrived post-open. A spike up attacked the 2388.00 bias-up signal to within 1 tick, and then fell back entirely to unchanged.
But the open held. Firming gradually returned to fresh highs, touching the bias-up signal in-time to invoke the grace period. It was still being touched at 10:30 to avoid triggering. This is a noN-bias environment.
The 2394.00 bias-up target is not in-play, but it can be tested anyway. Or, attacked up to 2391.50. Meanwhile, the 2388.00 bias-up signal’s test could still be reversed back under 2386.50 and extend down under yesterday’s lows, potentially testing 2375.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Constricted.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to 2377.00 extended quickly to 2387.00 through the bias timing window. The bias environment and noon hour ranged sideways, but the afternoon bias environment exit was probing fresh highs. Like Monday afternoon, no traction was confirmed. And like Monday afternoon, the balance of the session trended back down.
Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex open quickly touched yesterday’s 2382.25 low and began bouncing 4 points. Retracing to within 1 tick of the low also reacted up 4 points. The range remains intact as the initial low is being attacked to within 1 point.
If, then…
Yesterday’s close above 2375.00 put into play new highs. Subject to confirmation by closing above 2375.00 today, too, preferably higher. Pullbacks meanwhile may test 2360.00-2361.00 as support without reversing the trend down, and being able to reinstate new highs. Probing under yesterday’s lows seems likely since yesterday’s buyers gained no traction and the rally hasn’t extended overnight. Delaying a rally effort much longer would be too late to be credible, and would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2390.50 would be likely to trigger the 2388.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2385.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2383.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2381.25 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2391.25 | 2388.00 |
| …would target | 2397.25 | 2394.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2384.50 | 2381.25 |
| …would target | 2378.50 | 2375.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.