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Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday afternoon was almost identical to Monday. Exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, but dipping into the final hour. Greeting the proxy window at fresh highs, but not trending higher through it. A relevant difference being that Monday’s proxy window already started dipping into the close, while Tuesday’s closing dip was delayed.
Almost identical. But identical enough? Similar setups that appear consecutively seldom resolve similarly. Tuesday’s resolution was up, or at least up without delay. Will Wednesday’s resolution be down? Up, only after a delay or detour? Regardless, gapping up would be less likely to extend, and likelier to reverse down, at least initially.
Meanwhile, closing above 2375.00 has put into play new highs. Subject to confirmation from a second consecutive higher close Wednesday — or, so long as a pullback holds 2360.00-2361.00 — the really that began last Monday is targeting 2405.00 and probably also 2415.00. The context of price action prior to last Monday suggests that the high’s retest will form a bigger top.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s close under 1.0905 didn’t prevent Tuesday from probing above Sunday night’s 1.0918 highs to attack 1.0980. Closing back under 1.0925 would signal a reversal back under 1.0905 targeting 1.0860 in-play.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s probe under Sunday night and Monday’s lows tested 1263.00, leaving room down to 1261.00-1262.00 for a more thorough pullback to complete.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Tuesday probed fresh lows under 17.55, no longer testing the 17.90 pullback limit whose recovery would target at least 18.18.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s gap down back to Monday’s 152-26 open slid deeper to at least 152-08, instead of recovering 153-12 to signal that a recovery has begun. The pullback is now likely to first test 151-20.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initially dipping to test the original 48.90 buy signal was recovered to probe back above 49.30, suggesting that a bottom is forming. A recovery would not delay chipping away at 50.60 resistance.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Remaining under pressure Tuesday only attacked and tested Monday’s lows, but didn’t close lower to fulfill the confirmed breakout’s requirement for at least one eventual lower close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 26, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Following Tuesday’s unusually busy calendar, Wednesday is remarkably not busy. The mid-morning EIA report may influence price action to the degree that it alters or accelerates any initial Crude Oil trending.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2391.25 | 2388.00 |
| …would target | 2396.75 | 2393.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2384.50 | 2381.25 |
| …would target | 2379.50 | 2376.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Yesterday’s squeeze finally arrives.
Pre-open surge extends post-open.
Yesterday morning’s 2372.00 high had been probed yesterday afternoon up to 2373.00. That was probed overnight up to 2374.00. The next probe has extended up to 2387.00. That’s the sort of behavior yesterday afternoon’s restrained optimism avoided triggering.
This morning’s 2380.25 bias-up target was exceeded within minutes of the open. It was already exceeded by 7 points at 10:15. The renewed bias-up target at 2388.00 was already attacked to within 1 point. Its reaction down just touched 2384.00. Overbought RSIs at 2387.00 suggest its reaction down will be recovered.
Back under 2382.50 would start to signal a deeper pullback may be underway. It would likely recover, since post-open action is a trend (higher highs and higher lows) which is usually retraced eventually. But under 2382.50 could temporarily retest yesterday’s range.