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Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2348.75 | 2345.50 |
| …would target | 2353.75 | 2350.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2341.75 | 2338.50 |
| …would target | 2336.25 | 2333.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
No-bias trending during Wednesday afternoon neutralized one or two attractions above. The morning’s 2344.25 bias-down signal and the 2346.00 10:15 print were both tested by a surge that attacked 2347.00. Ironically, that surge developed during the afternoon’s no-bias environment, originating under the 2343.50 bias-up signal. It was later retraced, along with the 2341.50 1:20 print.
Also retested was Wednesday’s 2340.00 lower prior highs. Its test Wednesday morning was likely to hold, which it did. Its retest Wednesday afternoon was under no such obligation, but it held anyway.
That last point underscores how difficult it is to attract sponsorship ahead of a three-day holiday weekend. If that Friday will be closed, then trending should start by Wednesday morning, or have played out by Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday was an “inside day.”
Regardless of having avoided a break lower for this long, still being in close proximity to the lows demands vigilance. But fresh lows Thursday would still find it difficult attracting sponsorship. Meanwhile, there’s a lot of room for simply gravitating from the range’s lower-end, up into the weekend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
[Please also try the Adobe recording here.]
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s probe above Monday’s highs was already dismissed as unlikely to extend, let alone to prevent retesting Friday’s lows, or even resuming the decline to 1.0550. Wednesday’s weakness is in-line with the bearish scenario.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Attacking 1282.00 overnight enabled gapping up Wednesday, but intraday action only ranged sideways between 1275.00-1279.00. It developed entirely in positive territory but without trending higher. Further upside potential to 1284.00 and 1294.00 requires pullbacks to hold 1272.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying to 18.30 Tuesday resolved by gapping up above 18.30 Wednesday, but then only hovering there intraday instead of extending or rejecting.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs overnight up to 153-09 were attacked throughout Wednesday, stopping pessimistically short within several ticks, forming a Rising Wedge. Closing negative suggests the wedge is breaking lower, but meanwhile any fresh high could almost literally explode higher in this pattern.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing the 53.55 target overnight by 20 cents ultimately held and reversed back down intraday to 53.00. Under 52.70 would target 50.65.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Touching the 3.13 sell signal at Wednesday’s open reacted up to the 3.19 buy signal, which would target 3.27 before capitulating.
Mid-day Update… Pies in the sky?
Creating more “unfinished business above.”
The open’s congestion held the 2344.25 bias-down signal’s test to trigger late no-bias, 
putting into play an offsetting test of the 2353.50 bias-up signal. So, upleg, right? No, a downleg.
A rogue downleg? The range broke well after 10:30, making it no-bias trending that required eventually retesting 2344.25. Despite the drop extending to the morning’s 2338.00 bias-down target — which was pierced by only 2 ticks — yesterday’s 2340.00 “lower prior highs” held as support. Now their reaction up has tested 2344.25, along with the 2346.00 10:15 print.
2353.50 can be added to the list of unfinished business above (along with 2352.50 and 2354.75). So, now this afternoon’s 2343.50 bias-up signal can be revisited below. Neutralizing its attraction would allow an afternoon rally. Perhaps even a full-throated recovery.
The impending three-day holiday weekend makes trending to a new extreme difficult. But not impossible, especially since we’re already at the extreme. Exiting the bias environment under 2342.00 could find the close sharply lower.
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2347.00 | 2343.50 |
| …would target | 2352.00 | 2348.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2340.00 | 2336.75 |
| …would target | 2334.50 | 2331.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.