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Mid-day Update… Morning rally shrinks.
Retesting the open’s lows.
No-bias triggered this morning after already having come within 3 ticks of the 2345.50 bias-up signal. 
That’s close enough not to become “unfinished business below” if not actually touched. It wasn’t.
Meanwhile, breaking lower would have potential to at least 2337.00. A break lower did begin soon after the bias environment began lapsing. Its 2337.00 minimum objective was tested during the noon hour. And now probing more than 2 points lower is threatening the next lower objective at 2333.00.
This is not a bias environment, so trending isn’t restrained. The only restraint is this being the afternoon prior to a three-day holiday weekend. That timing’s difficulty in attracting new sponsorship is almost offset by the proximity to prior lows.
We don’t know with a 100% degree of certainty that a durable downleg is not underway, or that the decline will end today at whatever price. Even if we did, fresh lows to 2327.25 would remain possible. And even the most bullish scenario might not avoid that without triggering this afternoon’s 2338.25 bias-up signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 14, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: U.S. stock markets are closed for Good Friday, both cash AND futures. Banks are open, and several econ reports remain scheduled.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2349.00 | 2345.50 |
| …would target | 2354.00 | 2350.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2341.75 | 2338.25 |
| …would target | 2336.50 | 2333.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Trolling for buyers.
Did the right price and time finally coincide?
Any bullish scenario for this morning was required to quickly dispose of selling pressure. 
This morning’s open couldn’t have disposed of sellers faster.
The overnight low pierced the 2333.00 bias-down target by 3 ticks. Several points had been recovered already pre-open. The open dipped momentarily to 2334.00 and then extended the recovery. The opening 15 minutes of volatility lapsed at the 2338.50 bias-down signal. Extending higher during the next 15 minutes attacked the 2345.50 bias-up signal to within 3 ticks.
Rallying out of the open was the only other bullish scenario described for today. So, if not probing the overnight low and rejecting it, then the next likely path up was to avoid triggering bias-down altogether. More so, the three-day holiday weekend’s illiquidity is getting exponentially closer. Entering the morning’s bias environment in positive territory suggests strongly that sellers are marginalized.
One caveat is the overnight lows. They don’t require a retest. So, any setup that targets fresh lows would have potential to probe substantially lower. Back under 2340.50 would at least target 2337.00, if only 2337.00. But the burden of proof is on sellers.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Eking lower.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
[Test the Adobe version here (Apple users must use the “Puffin Browser”)]
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday afternoon neutralized the morning’s no-bias trending by bouncing back up to its 2344.25 bias-down signal and to its 2346.00 10:15 print. That bounce itself was no-bias trending, and required being retraced to the afternoon’s 2343.50 bias-up signal, if not also to the 2341.50 1:20 print. Done, and done. But despite neutralizing the downside attractions, the balance of the afternoon ranged sideways into the close. More so, another bias parameter test was left outstanding above by Wednesday’s “inside day” ahead of a three-day holiday weekend.
Overnight action’s new info…
N. Korea triggered some anxiousness with a cryptic announcement. That didn’t so much trigger sellers, as it inhibited buyers. Either way, fresh lows fell to 2334.50. A bounce recovered all the way up to Wednesday’s last relative high at 2344.00. But Europe’s opens only renewed the earlier sentiment, sending price to fresh lows at 2332.25.
If, then…
Trending into a three-day holiday weekend isn’t likely if not already underway by Wednesday morning. And it’s often finished by Wednesday afternoon. This Wednesday was an inside day, albeit inside Tuesday’s session which did probe under the prior several sessions’ lows. Now three-week old lows are being attacked, and it’s no easier to attract new sponsorship. That suggests gapping down — especially if fulfilling or holding a relevant level — may launch an intraday rally. But that’s only a brief window, and not bottoming through the open would more likely decline through the morning. Alternatively, simply not triggering bias-down would likely establish a bottom.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2331.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2333.00 bias-down target at 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal next targeting 2327.25. Exiting the open under 2336.00 would be likely to trigger the 2338.50 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning and welcome it is Thursday at 7 for Thursday’s Market or it’s a holiday shortened week sellers are making the most of it they could have made more of it the fact that they’re making anything of it so late in the week as far as not accelerating at least is one thing that suggests they’re not going to make a lot of it today that may be wrong and I’m going to tell you how it could be wrong first of all quick housekeeping please this is really our last day to try the Adobe recording When you see the link to the Eye Lopes recording please try the Adobe recording should be should be good if your own and I if you are listening to this on an iPad need to download apparently the Puffin Browser Don’t make me say that again okay Puffin Browser and that is apparently the way to listen to Adobe recordings on iPhone or iPad but make sure you can do that we’re also going to work out the resolution the size of the screen today as well I posted that solution yesterday if you didn’t see that I’m going to post it again today and we’ll make sure that works appreciate it alright so Wednesday greetings from the morning so I couple of days into Friday that’s interesting was the first to be under 4220 exactly all the way were traced back to the final hours I just not getting any pressure trend remains intact downtrend Lowe’s in there and it’s being productive and just real quickly we’re going to look at this in the bigger picture she can see there was an attack on 2017 effectively testing it within 3 weeks ago the gap down to 2321 interim support at 2327 probably headed to 2327 lower after already probably lower a couple nights and then probably lower intraday probably had at least 23 27 if not also 2321 the Gap three-week-old Gap and then the room 423 11 the reason why I’m not sure I don’t think it’s because of the holiday weekend so that’s rally out of here at least at this stage and then the euro which has 105 50 outstanding likely except for one thing and that is actually starting to decline this bounce failed and it hasn’t yet rolled back over basically back under the one of those 6:30 level with a witch without being tested yesterday got some interesting action overnight that is potentially dating were traced if not largely or if not entirely then largely I want to see how that plays out before determining whether the next leg of the euro is resuming its decline extending it down to 105 50 or put it in a bigger belts gold sharply higher the next to our targets 1284 and was tested overnight and then 1294 being attacked up to 1297 to you can see the resistance of 9070 1294 excuse me now that 9070 is been touched 1294 remains in place along is pulled back hold 12 8825 preferably 1287 at least at least 1287 silver also sharply higher exploiting that it least went out testing 1830 if that actually recovering it yesterday so the bond with miss this opportunity on Friday 5204 Target extended higher wouldn’t reject this is another reason why I think the market is overnight same day