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Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2779.25 | 2779.00 |
| …would target | 2784.75 | 2784.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2770.00 | 2770.00 |
| …would target | 2663.75 | 2663.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
A lot of selling pressure went into triggering Thursday’s Globex-flip setup. Probing 10 points above Wednesday’s ~2788.00 highs was reversed to open under the earlier 2784.50 Globex low.
The 2778.00 open extended down 9 points to 2769.00 through the 10:15 bias timing window. That’s 30 points under the overnight high, a lot of selling pressure. This is probably responsible for limiting the bearish Globex-flip’s morning influence only preventing a recovery, and not extending down.
Bouncing through the noon hour held tests of the open. More important, the afternoon bias environment did not bounce, signaling that the bearish Globex-flip’s influence would persist through the following morning. In fact, the afternoon trended down to sharply lower lows attacking 2764.00.
A bounce was retraced to retest 2764.00, where RSIs made higher lows. Firming through the position-squaring window began surging to eventually attack 2776.00 at the close. Now a great deal of buying pressure has been expended, during a window not likely to gain traction for its effort, and without recovering a relevant level.
Resuming the decline would next target 2753.00-2757.50, and then 2730.00 to fulfill the Isolation setup’s objective. Gapping up above Wednesday’s 2788.00 highs would suggest the 2798.00 “new Globex trend extreme” retest was underway, first.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Ranging narrowly flat-to-lower Thursday didn’t reject the confirmed breakout above 1.1333 but does now all but require the recovery to resume without further delay if it is valid.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher Wednesday to attack 1350.00 despite already fulfilling its 1328.30 and 1333.00 upside objectives Tuesday didn’t prevent reacting down Thursday. The two upside objectives now serve as a range of support to a pullback, which was tested Thursday afternoon. Back above 1335.50 would resume the rally.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing the 16.16 objective Wednesday had already stopped pessimistically short of also probing the 16.20 prior high. Pessimism only expanded by immediately collapsing back down to test 15.80 support. That’s natural support at “lower prior highs,” suggesting that impatient sellers are now done and the rally can resume at any time.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Thursday to and through the 146-00 pullback limit and probing lower intraday down to 145-17 must recover 146-04 without further delay to maintain upside momentum of the massive Ascending Triangle pattern. Meanwhile, the drop has room to 145-16 while still being only a pullback and not yet reversing momentum down.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength didn’t prevent a knee-jerk reaction down, but the weakness was very shallow testing only 56.65. The reaction is likely to recover, so long as any further weakness hold 55.85-56.05 as support.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t greeted from a position of strength, or weakness, having ranged narrowly under 2.70 for multiple consecutive sessions. The shallow knee-jerk reaction only touched 2.70 which remains intact as a buy signal.
Mid-day Update… Not easily absorbed.
Opening drop retraced only back to the open.
The 2777.75 opening print quickly extended down to confirm the Globex-flip setup. That confirmation represented most of this morning’s drop, which got to 2769.00 before 10:15. There has yet to be a lower low, but the bias environment remained under pressure.
The noon hour recovered to test the 2777.75 open, attacking 2782.00. But the 2782.75 bias-up signal wasn’t even touched, and now 2777.75 is being probed as support.
Just avoiding an afternoon bounce — not necessarily extending down — would suggest the bearish Globex-flip influence will stretch through tomorrow morning, too. Any fresh low would next target 2753.00-2757.50. None of which even considers the Isolation setup, which would target at least 2730.00. But back above 2783.75 would start to signal a recovery underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Feb 22, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s spate of Fed speakers is the day’s only high-profile economic inputs. There being several afternoon speakers also helps to keep alive volatility into the weekend.
*John Williams Speaks
10:15 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
1:30 PM ET
*Richard Clarida Speaks
1:30 PM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
1:30 PM ET