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Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2783.25 | 2782.75 |
| …would target | 2789.75 | 2789.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2774.25 | 2774.00 |
| …would target | 2767.75 | 2767.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Paradigm unshifted.
Upside rejected again.
Despite probing yesterday’s highs up to 2798.00 overnight, Wednesday’s 2786.00 cash session close was reversed before the open. 
As was the 2784.50 earlier Globex low, and both were maintained through Thursday’s opening 15 minutes of volatility. Both the Isolation and Globex-flip setups have formed.
The former setup carries substantially lower objectives, potentially 2730.00 and 2681.00. The latter setup influences this morning’s direction, and then also tomorrow morning’s direction if the afternoon doesn’t bounce.
Bias-down triggered, but wasn’t renewed because the 2772.25 bias-down target was still being touched at 10:15. The 2769.00 pre-10:15 low has also held, but its break would have potential to the 2753.00 61.8% retracement back into last Thursday-Friday’s gap.
One more point of interest, regardless of the potential downside objectives… Gapping down and exiting the open back under 2776.00-2777.00 continues to hold the door open for still forming a topping pattern. Recovering through the close would likely shut that door.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Don’t miss this one.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s close and Wednesday’s open each were within ticks of 2780.00, separated by a relatively narrow overnight range. The range was maintained through the noon hour while price fluctuated between either end. The afternoon’s reaction to FOMC Minutes — the most volatile I’ve seen in years — probed each extreme momentarily to 2791.25 and 2773.75. Still the 2786.00-2787.00 close held within the range at its upper-end. The session left no “unfinished business” and contained no predictive value.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s final hour had ranged relatively narrowly, which persisted during Globex’s first several hours. Favorable trade talk headlines triggered a 13-point surge up to 2798.00, interrupted by a Running Correction. Narrow hovering at the high plateaued until breaking lower just after midnight, retracing the Running Correction’s lower quadrant at 2792.25. The surge’s first leg was eventually retraced by 61.8% back down to yesterday’s “lower prior highs” at 2787.00. Three hours ranging narrowly suddenly collapsed down to 2783.50 while I was warning of exactly that during the Market Tour recording. The overnight rally’s Running Correction was complex, creating a “new Globex trend extreme.”
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Tuesday had not decisively confirmed Friday’s close above 2751.00-2757.00. Wednesday didn’t reject it, either, and held Tuesday’s range. Rallying to 2798.00 would seem to settle the matter, and decisively, if developed intraday. But the overnight surge’s retracement back into yesterday’s range is threatening to isolate the 2798.00 test to the overnight, forming a bearish Isolation setup. That would reject the upside, because this instance has an added degree of difficulty from the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme.” It requires intraday retest, often the same day, so overcoming its upside attraction would reflect even greater rejection. Look out below if the rejection triggers a Globex-flip, as well, which I describe in detail during the Market Tour recording. Having said all that, trying but failing to trigger an Isolation or Globex-flip setup can be as bullish as it would have been bearish.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2792.75 would be likely to trigger the 2790.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2784.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2790.00 | 2790.00 |
| …would target | 2796.75 | 2796.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2779.50 | 2779.50 |
| …would target | 2772.25 | 2772.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday afternoon’s reaction to FOMC Minutes was the most volatile I’ve seen in years. Policy statements and Chairman Q&As are reliably opportunistic environments. So long as the committee plays rhetorical games with the gas pedal, the Minutes reaction should be wide-ranging again.
The relatively narrow overnight range had warned before the open to expect only a 3-4 point trending attempt, if any. Further proof the market lacked sponsorship came from neither of the morning’s bias signals even being attacked. The 2786.00 bias-up was tested at noon.
Now the rubber band was stretched, and the market was no longer in the middle of a dull range. The morning’s bounce was followed by an 11-point reaction down through the noon hour attacked the 2775.00 bias-down. It was just a warm-up for the FOMC reaction which spiked up to attack 2791.00, and reacted down 17 points to attack the 2773.25 overnight low.
2786.00 was recovered in time for the last 90 minutes to fluctuate narrowly around it through the close. No “unfinished business” was left outstanding. And having essentially only fluctuated at or around Tuesday’s final hour range, the session contained no predictive value.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.