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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
No improvement overnight after Tuesday’s break above the 1.1333 buy signal was due probably to its test also having held last Tuesday’s prior high and closing gap. But not reacting down left the door open to later improving in time for a second consecutive higher confirming close. Fresh highs attacking 1.1400 went out testing the 1.1375 resistance.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s gap up through the outstanding 1333.00 target and its intraday extension to 1345.00 initially followed-through to attack 1350.00. Which held as the session high Wednesday, now having room for a pullback down to 1328.50.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already improving overnight to probe above 16.00 confirmed the “unfinished business” above at the 3-week old opening gap to 16.16. Rallying sharply intraday fulfilled the objective, while essentially touching the actual 3-week old intraday high.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Only touching Tuesday’s 147-05 intraday high overnight was unable to resume upside momentum before dipping back down to 146-11. The massive Ascending Triangle remains intact and vulenrable to breaking higher.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s flat-to-lower open barely attacked 55.75 before recovering to fresh highs at 57.60, confirming upside momentum remains intact from the confirmed breakout, greeting Thursday’s one-day delayed EIA report from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Eking out slightly higher highs overnight had not actually touched the 2.70 buy signal that must be recovered through Wednesday’s close to greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Choppy before the news.
FOMC Minutes coming shortly.
This morning’s upside held no surprises, other than there being upside. Trending was likely to be limited to 3-4 points, and that’s what was produced. 
An attraction at 2785.50 was touched, and its retest probed the 2786.00 bias-up signal before noon. Twice.
Reacting down through the noon hour reached fresh post-open lows, coming withing 3 ticks of this afternoon’s 2775.00 bias-down signal. Once again, like this morning, neither bias signal was touched while triggering no-bias.
For all of this volatility, price action remains within the range of yesterday’s final hour. Even reacting back up into the bias environment is now touching 2785.00. The bias-up signal is 2-1/2 points higher, coinciding with yesterday’s high. It should define the window’s upper-end if actually tested, which is possible in reaction to the 2:00 FOMC Minutes.
Reacting down to FOMC Minutes is also possible. Reliability is diminished when multiple timing windows overlap each other, along with durable trending. I would continue keeping smaller expectations for moves until the pattern proves otherwise.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Feb 21, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Suddenly, the holiday-shortened week gets very active with a busy calendar of high-profile AND reliably influential econ reports. Two of the three pre-open items are both, which is only likelier to create volatility for being released simultaneously. Any noticeable reaction to them is likely to be duplicated by the post-open reports, which also includes the high-profile influential LEI. Finally, the one-day delayed crude oil EIA report should at least offer a clear snapshot of how its inverted Head & Shoulders pattern is developing.
Raphael Bostic Speaks
7:50 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
PMI Composite FLASH
9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
30-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2787.75 | 2787.50 |
| …would target | 2793.75 | 2793.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2775.00 | 2775.00 |
| …would target | 2769.00 | 2769.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Slow-motion.
Little effort expended during narrow, encompassed opening range.
The relatively narrow overnight range was more noise than it was a pattern. A downtrending resistance of its highs was probed at 2779.00 just before the open, but no inflection developed. The opening 15 minutes of volatility only fluctuated narrowly between 2779.00-2781.50.
A blip-down to 2777.75 has reacted back up choppily to end the first hour attacking 2784.50. Still, neither bias signal was touched, not even attacked. So, neither bias signal requires being tested.
Perhaps the 2786.00 bias-up signal will be met, or attacked. That would be in-line with the 3-4 point trending attempts that I warned in the chaRTroom not to expect more of — if even relying on that much. Stretching the rubber band upward this morning might allow a more substantial snap back down, albeit still no likelier to leave yesterday’s range. Breaking higher would target a retest of yesterday’s 2787.50 high.