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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Still unchanged.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
The three-day holiday weekend ended by gapping down from an otherwise relatively narrow extended range between 2773.00-2780.50. Tuesday’s 2766.00 opening dip to Friday’s last relative low reacted straight up to unchanged at Friday’s 2776.00-2777.00 close. Surging again into noon probed overnight highs up to 2784.00 at noon. Higher highs into the final hour go to 2787.50 but gained no traction, and 1-minute RSI was only on the cusp of being overbought. The balance of the session dipped back down to unchanged, a second consecutive close above 2751.00/2757.00. But not decisively positive, so neither was its confirmation that new highs had been put into play.
Overnight action’s new info…
Despite soon bouncing back up to 2782.25, fresh lows briefly attacked 2774.00 before midnight. Despite soon bouncing back up to 2780.75, more fresh lows briefly attacked 2773.00. A shallower bounce, so far, is only overlapping 2776.00-2777.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s late dip back down to 2776.00-2777.00 hasn’t been rejected overnight, which I would have expected if the late dip there was from weak-handed sponsorship. Instead, still fluctuating around it overnight, digging out lower and lower lows, suggests otherwise — that the rally which is being retraced was created by weak-handed sponsorship. But that’s not yet enough to indicate its retracement is extending down, which all but requires gapping down or at least immediately extending to exit a timing window back under Tuesday morning’s 2766.00 low. Rallying out of the open would mean the rally’s next higher objective will have been established, albeit vulnerable to backing-and-filling first more gradually, from a position of strength likely to be recovered.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2766.00 would be likely to trigger the 2768.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2776.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2786.25 | 2786.00 |
| …would target | 2793.75 | 2793.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2768.50 | 2768.50 |
| …would target | 2762.25 | 2762.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s open gapped down from Friday’s 2776.00-2777.00 close, but only to test its 2766.50 last relative low.
Immediately reacting up filled the gap back to Friday’s close. The bias environment exit converted the morning’s recovery into a new rally leg that fulfilled its 2784.00 objective at noon. Higher highs into the final hour at 2787.50 gained no traction, and the balance of the session dipped back down to unchanged through the futures close.
The cash session close and 3 minutes prior were both testing 2779.00-2780.00. That’s not deep enough soon enough to be confident that Tuesday failed to produce a second consecutive higher close. And that keeps alive Friday’s close above 2751.00/2757.00 to invalidate the two-month old rally still being only a temporary correction.
Just closing above 2751.00/2757.00 would have sufficed, had Tuesday not also probed fresh highs. That raised the burden of proof for a confirmation to close positive. Which wasn’t the most credible. So, gapping down or exiting a timing window back under Tuesday morning’s 2766.00 low would invalidate the confirmation. Otherwise, the rally’s next objective would be new highs — albeit not at all protected from beginning a corrective pullback.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Repeated failed efforts to trend under 1.1333 finally faced the consequence of breaking higher, and extending intraday to test the 1.1375 buy signal that was avoided last week. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm the trend had reversed up.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Apr which trades at a 40-cent premium to Feb]… Rallying out of the weekend had already fulfilled the 3-week old 1328.30 gap up and also its likely 1333.00 objective before Tuesday’s open. The morning extended higher to 1345.00, qualifying as a breakout that could be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Wednesday. Otherwise, a pullback to 1328.50-1333.00 would maintain upside momentum.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already probing above Friday’s 15.70 buy signal’s test overnight, Tuesday’s open extended through 15.82 resistance to confirm the 3-week old gap up at 16.16 is in-play, already attacking 16.00 intraday.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still testing 146-16 through Friday’s close gave no hint how it would resolve through Sunday night or Monday, not until Tuesday’s next regular open when price surged back to prior highs at 147-05. The massive Ascending Triangle pattern has no bullish excuse not to resolve up much sooner rather than later. Closing back under 146-00 would instead resolve down substantially.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs coming out of the holiday weekend may be resolving the massive inverted Head & Shoulders pattern, subject to a second consecutive higher close on Wednesday for confirmation. Which would greet this week’s one-day delayed EIA report on Thursday from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat-to-higher ranging ahead of Tuesday’s open still needs to close above 2.70 to reverse momentum back up. Closing above 2.70 by Wednesday would greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Postured to confirm. But, tick-tock.
Rejecting fresh highs wouldn’t be bullish.
This moring’s bias-down signal was tested and held through the open, but its offsetting test of the bias-up signal was held through the bias timing window’s grace period. 
This setup usually produces an offsetting test of the bias-down signal, despite it having been tested first. But not this morning.
Perhaps that’s because the setup I just described was triggered by the 1 tick. The 2777.25 bias-up signal was attacked to within only 1 tick at 10:30. Actually touching it would have triggered noN-bias, which is more how the morning developed — shallow 5-6 point backing-and-filling that waited for the window to lapse.
And when the window began lapsing, the post-open recovery resumed. Surging 10 points from 2774.00 tested the morning’s 2784.00 bias-up target that I had suspected would be met anyway, but for having expended so much buying pressure so quickly this morning.
2784.00 has since held another 5-point pullback. Resolving up again is possible, all but marginalizing sellers for the day and confirming the trend remains up. Otherwise, fresh afternoon lows under 2778.00 would start to signal another rally effort had failed. Closing negative — if not also under this morning’s lows — would form a bearish Pivot Reversal unlikely to delay extending down.