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Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2771.25 | 2771.00 |
| …would target | 2778.50 | 2778.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2760.00 | 2760.00 |
| …would target | 2753.50 | 2753.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Paradigm shifted.
Overnight rally extends through the open.
Market Tour was recorded while the 2744.50 earlier Globex high was serving as support, after having recovered from probing yesterday’s 2730.25 overnight low. A bullish Globex-flip setup needed only to maintain that much of a recovery. But China trade headlines triggered the rally’s resumption.
By the time of my pre-open comments, the nearest buy signal was 2757.75. It was triggered just minutes later by a surge up to 2769.00. The open held up, and has already been rewarded by a fresh high at 2773.00 as more China trade headlines hit.
This being a Friday, the morning’s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour. That doesn’t require extending higher, or that extending higher be steep. Being a bias-up, a reaction down could test the 2753.00 bias-up signal as support. But the Globex-flip setup suggests the rally will persist through the morning.
None of which affects the bearish WedEX influence due this afternoon. The setup can’t be inverted again, and can only be invalidated by not trending down during the afternoon bias environment and final hour. Meanwhile, trend extremes aren’t normally associated with expirations, and a new trend extreme close on a Friday all but requires another trend extreme close before a reversal down is credible.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Volatile, to the last drop.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory! An overnight rally had postured Thursday’s open to challenge Wednesday’s 2762.00 high only 90 minutes earlier. Then headlines triggered a plunge through Wednesday’s 2754.00 close on the way down to 2736.50. Extending down post-open to 2730.25 created an anchor that would doom to failure any subsequent bounce. That didn’t prevent rallying up to 2755.25 through the noon hour, but it did limit any higher high to a blip-up to 2758.25. Finally, the bounce began retracing as the last half-hour fell to 2743.00-2744.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
The bounce continued unraveling through the Globex open to retrace Thursday’s 2739.50 open. The fall extended to probe 5 ticks under Thursday’s low to 2729.00 just before Europe’s opens. And that was the end of that. Rallying since then has recovered into positive territory to test the 2744.50 earlier Globex high up to 2749.25.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The anchor at yesterday’s low had doomed the subsequent rally. This setup is now neutralized by having probed a fresh low, and its intraday retest isn’t required. Often a new downleg under it would have developed to compensate for the delay, and may yet develop. Meanwhile, a couple of rally setups are trying to form overnight. Probing yesterday’s low overnight and not retesting it this morning could form an Isolation setup by not probing yesterday’s low through the open. More influential than that would be a Globex-flip setup, which also rejects the overnight probe by opening back above the 2744.50 earlier Globex high (now being tested). The latter setup can be as bearish as it would have been bullish if the opportunity to trigger is presented AT the open, but isn’t exploited THROUGH the open.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2744.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2741.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2746.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2753.00 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2753.25 | 2753.00 |
| …would target | 2761.25 | 2761.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2741.25 | 2741.25 |
| …would target | 2733.50 | 2733.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
A funny thing happened Thursday on the way to gapping up above Wednesday’s 2762.00 high. An earlier overnight probe above it had reacted down, and was recovered up to 2760.00, when headlines triggered a plunge to 2736.50.
Wednesday’s close had overlapped its open, which often appears at trend extremes. Extending down post-open to 2730.25 created an anchor that suggests momentum has reversed down. None of which prevented rallying up to 2755.25 through the noon hour. But the anchor’s position of weakness should doom the bounce to failure.
The afternoon bias environment didn’t extend the rally at all. A late break lower fell to 2744.50 at the cash session close and 2742.50 into the futures close. The anchor at Thursday’s low has yet to be retested, and should be probed by a new downleg to compensate for the delay.
Otherwise, having trended down into Thursday’s close, gapping up above its 2754.50 bias environment high could form a session-long rally. The final hour’s blip-up to a higher high would have to be dismissed — which I’m willing to do, since it was triggered by a headline. Extending higher Friday morning would also raise suspicions about the WedEX signal’s reversal to bearish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.