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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Overnight weakness was erased before Thursday’s open, but the 1.1333 signal was only tested and not triggered. Its recovery would be likelier now to also trigger 1.1375 and launch a more substantial rally.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s bounce only touched 1217.00 which must still break higher to trigger a retest of “unfinished business” at 1228.30 and probably also 1233.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down under prior lows Thursday can’t tolerate a second consecutive lower close for the pattern to include any near-term recovery up to “unfinished business” at 16.16. Closing back above 15.70 would now signal a recovery underway.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Thursday to the prior upleg’s 146-04 target extended sharply higher to fill the gap back to last week’s 146-28 high close. Almost any follow-through Friday would be credible both for extending higher intraday, and for resuming the prior upleg.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A slightly higher high overnight didn’t prevent dipping Thursday to test the 53.30 buy signal as support. But it was recovered back up to Wednesday’s intraday highs attacking 54.75 and remains likely to launch a new rally leg.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA from neither a position of strength nor weakness made no difference to price action which barely acknowledged the report, and only continued ranging very narrowly sideways around unchanged.
Mid-day Update… Another shoe?
Post-open paradigm shift hasn’t shifted back.
The opening action was impressive. As in, it made an impression. Two of them, both with the same setup — 
opening back under Tuesday’s last relative lows at 2838.75 and 2841.50. Maintaining their break through the opening 15 minutes of volatility formed an anchor, so that reacting up has come from a position of weakness. Meanwhile, the same opening action inverted the WedEX signal to passively bearish by proxy.
The position of weakness didn’t prevent the morning’s bounce 18 points from 2730.25 up to 2748.25. Its reaction down to 2735.50 was reversed up 20 points through the noon hour to 2755.25.
Flat-to-lower narrow ranging still managed to trigger the 2747.75 bias-up signal, while also holding a test of its 2753.00 bias-up target. It’s still a bias-up environment, and back above 2755.75 would start to signal a bigger rally underway.
Otherwise, topping should still close back under 2751.00, or at least overlapping it, but preferably back under Tuesday’s last relative lows at 2838.75 and 2841.50.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Feb 15, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Friday’s pre-open econ reports is reliably influential to price action, and they’re not even high-profile. But any price reaction to a pre-open report is likely to be duplicated in reaction to the post-open Fed speaker.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
9:55 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2748.25 | 2747.75 |
| …would target | 2753.50 | 2753.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2740.00 | 2739.75 |
| …would target | 2732.00 | 2731.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Still no unfinished business above.
Overnight rally hits its resistance, plunges through the open.
Gapping up above yesterday’s 2762.00 high could have reinstated the rally.
Its upside momentum became inertia when yesterday’s close overlapped its 2753.00 open. This setup often appears at extremes because it reflects the trend sponsorship’s weakness.
That vulnerability probably exacerbated the reaction to pre-open headlines that triggered a 20-point collapse to 2737.50. Extending to 2730.25 post-open held under Tuesday’s 2738.75 and 2741.50 last relative lows through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to create an anchor below.
None of which prevented a bounce, which tested the 2746.50 bias-down signal’s resistance up to 2748.25. Already too late for its recovery to invalidate the bias-down signal, and required to define the window’s upper-end, a 13-point plunge attacking 2735.00.
The headline catalyst is artificial, better enabling the latest plunge’s recovery. Recovering the 2746.50 bias-down signal into the noon hour could retest 2755.00. Otherwise, the decline remains vulnerable to extending down.