Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 871 | 867’50 |
| …would target | 877.25 | 873’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 862.75 | 859’25 |
| …would target | 856.50 | 853’00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 871 | 867’50 |
| …would target | 877.25 | 873’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 858.75 | 855’25 |
| …would target | 852 | 848’50 |
| Signal status: INVALIDATED BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET OVERNIGHT | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 869 | 865’50 |
| …would target | 877.50 | 874’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 862 | 858’50 |
| …would target | 853.50 | 850’00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 860.25 | 856’75 |
| …would target | 868.50 | 865’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 848.50 | 845’00 |
| …would target | 840.50 | 837’00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
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Waiting out the fulfilled bias-up target.
[pay]The 837’50 bias-up signal was triggered halfway through the noon hour, and its 842’50 target was met an hour later. The bias-up environment makes is likelier to trade flat to higher, than it is to trade down.
The target has held two probes above it, so another upleg probably needs a pullback to refuel buyers. Notice that I didn’t say a pullback would refuel buyers. There is no requirement to trend any higher, only to avoid a drop until the bias-up environment lapses after 2:30. That said, a new long-entry parameter would be valid, if one were to appear before 2:30.
Long-entry might be valid after 2:30, as well, not to mention short-entry. My point is that the predictable (to the degree anything is predictable in the market) has been fulfilled. I’m in no rush to push another trade without having as much as possible aligned in its favor.
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