Bias-parameters
Bias-down rally trying to outrun the news cycle.
[pay]The open’s surge was too aggressive relative to its origin, but didn’t find a negative divergence until touching 831’50. A drop to 824’50 didn’t see indications of increased selling pressure, and now a new session high is attacking the 838’25 overnight high within 1 point.
This morning’s bias-down signal may have fallen victim to this morning’s fluid news environment. Perhaps it was a product of that news flow. It is a bias-down rally, nonetheless, and its complete retracement is required – perhaps when the news takes a break several minutes from now. The pre-open low also requires retest, whether later today or later this week.
There is potential to the 841’00 bias-up signal so long as 834’00 holds as support. Entering or exiting the noon hour back under 834’00 would indicate that buyers had lost momentum. Under 833’00 would start signaling that sellers were gaining it.
[/pay]
Bias-down target 2 ticks away… will it hold if touched?
[pay]Two tests of 829’00 as resistance failed to gain traction, and each pushed back down to prior lows around 827’00. The 3-minute MACD & RSI finally joined the 1-minute indicators by also diverging positively. Price action could not have cared less, and seemed for several minutes to have fallen asleep.
But what seemed like apathy towards the positive divergence was actually warning that the setup wasn’t bullish. Like the 1-minute setups preceding it, this 3-minute positive divergence would be ignored, as well. The 822’50 bias-down target was attacked to within 2 ticks pre-open, and I expect its test after the open so long as 825’00-825’50 contains bounces.
We’ll assess the low’s retest after the open for indications either of holding, or of extending the downleg to 807’00-809’00. Recovering 825’50-826’50 through the open might leave the pre-open low’s retest behind for a later time, whether later today or later this week.
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 844.75 | 841’00 |
| …would target | 854.75 | 851’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 833 | 829’50 |
| …would target | 826.25 | 822’50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 847.75 | 844’00 |
| …would target | 853.75 | 850’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 838.50 | 835’00 |
| …would target | 833.75 | 830’00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 873.50 | 870’00 |
| …would target | 882.50 | 879’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 865.50 | 862’00 |
| …would target | 858.50 | 855’00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET OVERNIGHT | FAQ | |
[/pay]