Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 869.75 | 866’00 |
| …would target | 872.25 | 868’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 864.75 | 860’75 |
| …would target | 655 | 851’25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BARELY | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 867 | 863’50 |
| …would target | 872.75 | 869’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 859 | 855’50 |
| …would target | 853.25 | 849’75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
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The no-bias stays out of sight.
[pay]MACD & RSI diverged positively on a pullback to 847’00, and the recovery from there hasn’t looked back since. New relative highs at 863’25 are being tested by a relentless and grossly extended upleg.
New highs in the session’s last hour aren’t easy to reverse down. Sponsorship for extending the rally isn’t any easier to attract. This upleg hasn’t actually printed a new high during the last hour, so reversing down through 3:20 would signal the rare event of reversing a last hour’s new highs. The rally did originate during a no-bias environment, so its gain requires being retested at some point anyway – but not with any specific timing.
Back under 857’00-856’00 through 3:20-3:30 would give sellers a big benefit of the doubt. And at this moment, they have plenty of doubt.
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No-bias means no-bias. However…
[pay]The 854’50 bias-up signal was tested just before and just after the noon hour’s end. It held both tests through 1:20 to signal no-bias. A test of the 846’00 bias-down signal is likely, and would be put into play back under 851’75.
Since 854’50 is also last Thursday’s pivotal high, touching it does all but assure a test of Monday’s 861’75 actual high. All but. This instance might be more but. The noon hour’s noise is similar in principle to the opening 15 minutes of volatility, and dismisses price action not confirmed through 1:20. This wasn’t.
A no-bias rally is still possible, and increasingly probable the longer that 851’75 avoids breaking lower. A no-bias rally isn’t required, it wouldn’t be required to test the bias-up target or prior highs, and its gain would be doomed to failure.
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Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 858.25 | 854’50 |
| …would target | 863.50 | 860’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 849.50 | 846’00 |
| …would target | 843.75 | 840’00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
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