Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 824.75 | 821’00 |
| …would target | 829 | 825’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 814 | 815’50 |
| …would target | 807.75 | 804’00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 840.50 | 836’75 |
| …would target | 845.75 | 842’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 829.25 | 825’50 |
| …would target | 821 | 817’25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN TARGET BREAK MAINTAINED | FAQ | |
[/pay]
The challenge of a no-bias afternoon.
[pay]The 818’75 bias-down signal was touched during the noon hour but didn’t break. Only 1-minute MACD diverged positively there, but all other technicals made higher lows while price made its new low. This produced a bounce to within 1 point of the 825’50 bias-up signal.
The 825’50 bias-up signal’s test is likely because the bias-down signal was touched before signaling no-bias. Back under 821’25 first would undermine this likelihood in favor of the session-long decline signaled by the open’s gap under 828’50.
It should be noted the this morning’s 821’50 bias-down target was met. Also, the noon hour was both entered and exited while recovering from probes under the bias-down target. Be prepared if a bounce gains traction or if a retest of the low holds.
[/pay]
Afternoon Bias
[pay]
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 829.25 | 825’50 |
| …would target | 835 | 831’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 822.50 | 818’75 |
| …would target | 814.50 | 810’75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TOUCHED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Bias-down target met… refueling for another go?
[pay]The morning’s bias-down environment is lapsing, and the 821’50 bias-down target has been met at the low. The session-long decline setup says any bounce will fail, but it doesn’t prevent a bounce.
Traders whose strategy dictates exiting at a target will have covered or are working it. Entering the noon hour under 823’50 does marginalize the bounce potential a little, perhaps limiting it to only 825’50 before buyers might be gaining traction for a bigger bounce.
While the session-long decline setup does point lower, it also dooms bounces to failure. Bouncing high enough and long enough to avoid new afternoon lows is possible, but it would only delay the inevitable and compound its effect.
[/pay]