Bias-parameters
Morning bias
[pay]
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 816.25 | 812’25 |
| …would target | 821.75 | 818’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 808 | 804’25 |
| …would target | 800.25 | 796’25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP TARGET MET OVERNIGHT | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Extending the no-bias rally?
[pay]The no-bias environment didn’t stop the morning’s rally from extending higher to within 1 point of the 810’25 bias-up target. This afternoon’s higher highs have essentially ranged narrowly around yesterday’s 807’00 high.
Back under 803’00 would now signal momentum reversing down, presumably targeting 790’00, and potentially evolving into the decline’s resumption. Back above 807’50 would suggest the afternoon’s no-bias rally was extending higher, confirmed by new session highs (preferably above 810’25) going into the session’s last hour.
All of today’s rally from the open’s low is considered to be the same noise that yesterday’s rally would have been if its gains were maintained. This is just more noise, initially triggered by yesterday’s gap up from Monday’s decline, and similarly limited by yesterday’s gap being too shallow to invalidate Monday’s decline.
[/pay]
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 808.50 | 804’50 |
| …would target | 814 | 810’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 800.75 | 797’00 |
| …would target | 794 | 790’00 |
| Signal status:NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Bias-down target met. Several times.
[pay]The drop into yesterday’s close extended down through the 788’00 bias-down signal, pausing only once before reaching the 781’00 bias-down target. A momentary spike probed the target down to 779’50 where a a bigger bounce nearly touched 792’00.
But the target had yet to be met intraday, which required the cash session to open. And that’s when the 781’00 target was met intraday. Its test extended down to also test the 779’50 overnight low.
Except for completely retracing the rally from Monday’s lows, all other near-term selling pressure has been satisfied. Falling back under the 781’00 bias-down target through 10:15 would renew the bias-down signal. Back above 783’25 would trigger a retest of the 788’00 bias-down signal – potentially to refuel for a bigger break lower.
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 799.50 | 795’50 |
| …would target | 804.75 | 801’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 791.75 | 788’00 |
| …would target | 785 | 781’00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
[/pay]