Bias-parameters
Trying to trigger the bias-up, trying not to fall.
[pay]The afternoon’s 798’00 bias-up signal is still being tested at 1:20. It gets a benefit of the doubt, so long as dips hold any test of 797’00 as support. Back under the morning’s 796’00 prior highs through 1:30 would trigger at least a sizable detour targeting 786’25. Without recovering, the detour could become more permanent, resuming yesterday’s decline.
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Afternoon bias
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| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 802 | 798’00 |
| …would target | 807 | 803’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 794.75 | 791’00 |
| …would target | 787.25 | 783’25 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
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Ugh – bias-up target met.
[pay]The sloppy open held a test of the 787’00 bias-up signal as support before finally testing the 795’00 bias-up target. RSIs haven’t done anything impressive to either protect against a dip or to require higher highs.
And each probe above pre-open highs – despite each probe itself being a higher high – has reversed back under pre-open highs. In fact, the latest reversal back under pre-open highs is testing 791’00 as support by a couple of ticks.
The bias-up environment inhibits a sell-off from forming, and helps this 5-point dip refuel buyers. That’s if the dip doesn’t extend down too far first, possible because buying pressure has been satisfied. Back above 792’50 does keep sellers from gaining traction, which they gain under 789’25 and 788’00.
If this morning’s bias environment is exited with sellers regaining control, their first target would be 783’00-784’00 and it would be vulnerable to breaking lower. Otherwise, buyers sellers not regaining control might make buyers deserve a benefit of the doubt for higher highs probing 798’00.
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Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 790.75 | 787’00 |
| …would target | 798.50 | 795’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 782.50 | 779’00 |
| …would target | 775.75 | 772’00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 788.75 | 785’00 |
| …would target | 794.50 | 791’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 784.75 | 781’25 |
| …would target | 780 | 776’25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
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