Bias-parameters
Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 824 | 820’50 |
| …would target | 830.50 | 827’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 816.50 | 813’00 |
| …would target | 807.50 | 804’00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET OVERNIGHT | FAQ | |
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Bias-down target met… refueling for another go?
[pay]A rogue spike up probed the 818’25-819’25 range one more time, then proved its rogue-ness by plunging to fresh lows at the 809’50 bias-down target. The 1-minute RSI made higher lows into the target’s test and retest while MACD eventually diverged positively. Now a bounce just touched 817’00.
The drop is not sufficient penalty for the delay of this morning’s optimistic bounce from 2 ticks above yesterday’s 811’00 low. Had the open’s selling extended down with less interruption before only firming, perhaps this early-afternoon dive would have held as the low’s retest. That probably wasn’t possible anyway, considering the session-long decline signal.
Back under 813’25 would signal the next downleg is probably underway. It could be significant if the break were delayed until just before starting the session’s last hour. Its minimum target would be 804’00. A last-hour short-squeeze is always a possibility, especially on Fridays, and especially after an intraday decline – we’ll have to consider it if 818’25-819’25 were recovered, but the afternoon outlook remains flat to down.
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Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 826.75 | 823’00 |
| …would target | 831.75 | 828’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 819.50 | 816’00 |
| …would target | 813.25 | 809’50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 832 | 828’25 |
| …would target | 838.50 | 835’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 825 | 821’50 |
| …would target | 818.25 | 814’50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 825.50 | 821’75 |
| …would target | 831.25 | 827’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 817 | 813’50 |
| …would target | 807.75 | 804’00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, TARGET MET | FAQ | |
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